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KenolKobil HY 2014 profit before tax grows X 4
Aguytrying
#61 Posted : Thursday, August 21, 2014 9:13:17 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
the only thing that would shock me price wise would be if it went below 7.90. the rest of up down behaviour, I'm so used to it. company is turning around while growing profits. I need more shares, whenever I have cash now
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
VituVingiSana
#62 Posted : Thursday, August 21, 2014 10:21:41 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,356
Location: Nairobi
Good thing I am not bothered whether it goes to 10 or 7.90 ... though I will sell other shares to buy as many KK as possible if it falls to 7. I expect EPS of 80-100 cents for FY 2014. And potential buyers in 2016. Price I want/expect? 15. I have given up on dreams of 18-22. Pragmatism wins over 'hope' and clouds in the sky.

Segman's hedging play was a disaster. Let's hope Ohana steers the boat to increased & sustainable operating profits.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
S.Mutaga III
#63 Posted : Thursday, August 21, 2014 10:54:31 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 830
mibbz wrote:
S.Mutaga III wrote:
Regardless of all the positivity about this stock, which I believe is valid, the P/E is not low enough to excite me. As a disciplined investor, I will let this one pass purely because of its P/E.


@Mutaga III i repect your trading/investing strategy but history has shown that price movement and action does depend not only on technical and fundamental analysis of a company but also 'market sentiment' which can be characterised as many things including emotions,brokers advising clients,gut feelings,insider information on deals,hype,wazua gurus giving the way foward etc.

In a country like ours where information assymetry thrives backed with a skkewed principal(buyer) and agent(broker) relationship that ends with brokers advising guys on what to buy, I expect KK to gain leaps and bounds becasue the 'sentiment' is positive.



Lastly I always tell guys,there is a lot f money floating around.Its bound to seek shelter somewhere exciting.This is exciting irrespective of fundamentals and its huge debt. Henceforth I am with the bulls on this, but cautiously optimistic at ksh 12.50 to 13 FY 2014.

The problem is how to calculate your said factors. One can easily calculate P/E but I dont know how you calculate market sentiment. Calculating human emotion is an exercise in futility. Work with the numbers that you can calculate. Keep it simple. Read Sir Isaac Newton's bad experience with the South Sea Company. “I can calculate the movement of stars, but not the madness of men.”
Check the image http://www.sovereignman....3/12/20131210-image.jpg

A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
hisah
#64 Posted : Friday, August 22, 2014 2:13:31 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Aguytrying wrote:
the only thing that would shock me price wise would be if it went below 7.90. the rest of up down behaviour, I'm so used to it. company is turning around while growing profits. I need more shares now.

Before you pull the buy trigger...

http://www.businessdaily.../-/k1lfj1z/-/index.html

Since I'm building an energy portfolio, I'm selfish and want lower prices. Watch that 7.90 snap against the majority feel good sentiment!
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Akenyan2014
#65 Posted : Friday, August 22, 2014 6:04:55 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 5/6/2014
Posts: 268
Location: Nairobi, Kenya
hisah wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
the only thing that would shock me price wise would be if it went below 7.90. the rest of up down behaviour, I'm so used to it. company is turning around while growing profits. I need more shares now.

Before you pull the buy trigger...

http://www.businessdaily.../-/k1lfj1z/-/index.html

Since I'm building an energy portfolio, I'm selfish and want lower prices. Watch that 7.90 snap against the majority feel good sentiment!


Chief, I thought that shrunk market share was expected since they were on a cost cutting year and din't put so much effort on new products and outlets. However I'm not comfortable with the fact that profit has also been attributed to sale of assets (means a profit warning next year if revenues don't pace up). I still included in my most recent buys though.
dunkang
#66 Posted : Friday, August 22, 2014 6:14:11 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/2/2011
Posts: 4,824
Location: -1.2107, 36.8831
hisah wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
the only thing that would shock me price wise would be if it went below 7.90. the rest of up down behaviour, I'm so used to it. company is turning around while growing profits. I need more shares now.

Before you pull the buy trigger...

http://www.businessdaily.../-/k1lfj1z/-/index.html

Since I'm building an energy portfolio, I'm selfish and want lower prices. Watch that 7.90 snap against the majority feel good sentiment!

So, it has now been revealed that that 'GROWTH' is attributed to SELL of assets. #Bubble_Burst
Receive with simplicity everything that happens to you.” ― Rashi

Kausha
#67 Posted : Friday, August 22, 2014 9:45:30 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 2/8/2007
Posts: 808
I think that is an idiotic journalist paid by someone or the competition. Little wonder I would rather buy mandazi moto with 60 bob rather than buy business daily. Look at the cash flow statement and look at the comparatives and you will notice mutegi is talking out if his ass rather than his brain.
hisah
#68 Posted : Friday, August 22, 2014 11:59:49 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Intraday vol spike day 2 with 16M shares traded. Currently VWAP @8.10. Where are the foreigners...?

update - 30mins later total shares moved reads 31M.

Today's open price is 8.80, VWAP @8.10, day low @8.10.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
VituVingiSana
#69 Posted : Friday, August 22, 2014 12:55:56 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,356
Location: Nairobi
Akenyan2014 wrote:
hisah wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
the only thing that would shock me price wise would be if it went below 7.90. the rest of up down behaviour, I'm so used to it. company is turning around while growing profits. I need more shares now.

Before you pull the buy trigger...

http://www.businessdaily.../-/k1lfj1z/-/index.html

Since I'm building an energy portfolio, I'm selfish and want lower prices. Watch that 7.90 snap against the majority feel good sentiment!


Chief, I thought that shrunk market share was expected since they were on a cost cutting year and din't put so much effort on new products and outlets. However I'm not comfortable with the fact that profit has also been attributed to sale of assets (means a profit warning next year if revenues don't pace up). I still included in my most recent buys though.

Sale of assets should be backed out. Use just the Operating Income. The good news is that the cash from the sale of assets will reduce debt levels.

And yes, KK said they are getting out of the low margin businesses including Jet Fuel.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Magnate
#70 Posted : Friday, August 22, 2014 9:10:09 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 11/1/2013
Posts: 257
faa wrote:
#BUY


i concur.... am in bigtime
No diagnosis,no pragnosis,no pragnosis no profit......Jesse livermore
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