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KenolKobil HY 2014 profit before tax grows X 4
hisah
#41 Posted : Thursday, August 21, 2014 11:11:40 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
Wait a minute,the game has changed,or its my system?huge exit and huge entries,wazua elders help me here

Entry volume here. Price spike expected in coming days.

High flying off the block and immediate rejection upon hitting 9/- on huge volume. Caution...

Look at the weird global oil price behaviour since Jul 2014 with all the war mongering...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
nashx
#42 Posted : Thursday, August 21, 2014 11:16:37 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/28/2014
Posts: 188
Location: Nairobi
hisah wrote:
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
Wait a minute,the game has changed,or its my system?huge exit and huge entries,wazua elders help me here

Entry volume here. Price spike expected in coming days.

High flying off the block and immediate rejection upon hitting 9/- on huge volume. Caution...

Look at the weird global oil price behaviour since Jul 2014 with all the war mongering...


Hisah is this a good play in the short term or this is one to hold for some time or its both at current price!!d'oh!
Offering my personal finance knowledge for free
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#43 Posted : Thursday, August 21, 2014 12:07:37 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,221
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
hisah wrote:
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
Wait a minute,the game has changed,or its my system?huge exit and huge entries,wazua elders help me here

Entry volume here. Price spike expected in coming days.

High flying off the block and immediate rejection upon hitting 9/- on huge volume. Caution...

Look at the weird global oil price behaviour since Jul 2014 with all the war mongering...

Interesting angle this. One would have imagined the price would slowly inch up towards account release as investors take positions but alas, that didn't happen giving credence to your theory. And hence the classic 'sell the news' we are seeing here.
On the other hand, one would expect exit volume(sellers market) to be atleast at a price above previous VWAP close or 3-6months average as was the case with Mumias, not unless the company is in dire straits. Again not the case.
And thus my conclusion that it is a buyers market(entry volume).
Awaiting Mr.Market/Time to provide the answerssmile
@SufficientlyP
hisah
#44 Posted : Thursday, August 21, 2014 12:21:33 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
nashx wrote:
hisah wrote:
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
Wait a minute,the game has changed,or its my system?huge exit and huge entries,wazua elders help me here

Entry volume here. Price spike expected in coming days.

High flying off the block and immediate rejection upon hitting 9/- on huge volume. Caution...

Look at the weird global oil price behaviour since Jul 2014 with all the war mongering...


Hisah is this a good play in the short term or this is one to hold for some time or its both at current price!!d'oh!

I wouldn't be quick to jump into this feel good news. Give it a week or two to see the reaction. Line in the sand is 7.90. Break down and it dips towards 6.50 - 6 then 5.50. Break above 10 hints bulls taking over.

@philanga - why I'm cautious with today's price action is it similar to the behaviour on news release in the fx world. Huge price spike suddenly big volume appears and hours later the price retraces all its gains... Sounds familiar?
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Mainat
#45 Posted : Thursday, August 21, 2014 12:33:53 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/21/2006
Posts: 1,590
The volume looks to me like two big investors changing positions...
Price will be re-rated higher
Sehemu ndio nyumba
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#46 Posted : Thursday, August 21, 2014 12:39:20 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,221
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
hisah wrote:
nashx wrote:
hisah wrote:
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
Wait a minute,the game has changed,or its my system?huge exit and huge entries,wazua elders help me here

Entry volume here. Price spike expected in coming days.

High flying off the block and immediate rejection upon hitting 9/- on huge volume. Caution...

Look at the weird global oil price behaviour since Jul 2014 with all the war mongering...


Hisah is this a good play in the short term or this is one to hold for some time or its both at current price!!d'oh!

I wouldn't be quick to jump into this feel good news. Give it a week or two to see the reaction. Line in the sand is 7.90. Break down and it dips towards 6.50 - 6 then 5.50. Break above 10 hints bulls taking over.

@philanga - why I'm cautious with today's price action is it similar to the behaviour on news release in the fx world. Huge price spike suddenly big volume appears and hours later the price retraces all its gains... Sounds familiar?

smile Woe unto you if you don't lock in the gains,USD bulls might just knock you offsmile
@SufficientlyP
hisah
#47 Posted : Thursday, August 21, 2014 12:46:37 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Mainat wrote:
The volume looks to me like two big investors changing positions...
Price will be re-rated higher

Possible if 7.90 doesn't break down (key support) and 10 is taken out in coming weeks.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
maka
#48 Posted : Thursday, August 21, 2014 12:50:42 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 4/22/2010
Posts: 11,522
Location: Nairobi
Magnate wrote:
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
Wait a minute,the game has changed,or its my system?huge exit and huge entries,wazua elders help me here

Entry volume here. Price spike expected in coming days.


Whaaat this market is full of surprises,what has just happened to the mini rally that was gaining momentum


smile
possunt quia posse videntur
mibbz
#49 Posted : Thursday, August 21, 2014 12:52:28 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/18/2011
Posts: 448
Foreign participation at a measly 3.81%, it's local deep pockets rocking the boat. I do believe the frenzy has settled. Bids for 2.99M shares with highest price at 8.20 while 770K available for sale from 8.50 minimum with decent volumes at 9 and 10.

There is a stalemate between bull and bear Brick wall
mibbz
#50 Posted : Thursday, August 21, 2014 12:54:28 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/18/2011
Posts: 448
But price shall go higher,demand 4 times the supply points to an increase in price from the current 8.50
Jimmy Boy
#51 Posted : Thursday, August 21, 2014 1:45:15 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 7/17/2014
Posts: 15
Location: Geneva
Gentlemen, the behavior of international oil prices will only have an impact to the Kenyan consumers and not the Kenyan Oil Companies. You need to reckon with the fact that we operate in a a price controlled regime where any upswings or downswings are factored in the pump prices hence cushioning the local oil companies.
I am certain that KK will double the 2014 1st Half results come the end of the year.
Regards,
Jimmy Boy
DBLyon
#52 Posted : Thursday, August 21, 2014 2:10:06 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/28/2014
Posts: 149
Location: Nairobi
Aguytrying wrote:
I'm impressed and surprised that they managed this turnaround with reduced reliance on retail segment. they are really playing the money game now. now just make those stations nice and shiny and staff too, bring back k card with very small discounts and soon suitors will be begging for the bride.


I like the money game. Nice and shiny can come much much later, if you ask me. I'd much rather Ohana works on the engine and makes it purr than paint the car. We can paint later. smile
When you live for others' opinions, you are dead.

- Carlos Slim Helu
hisah
#53 Posted : Thursday, August 21, 2014 3:03:23 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Big vol spike but VWAP closes at yesterday's price - 8.05?!? A lot of huffing and puffing. The vol spike effort says a lot with price spiking above 9/- handle and retracing all the way back below open price @8.35 to close @8.05. Will that vol spike defend the 7.90 key support level?
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
mibbz
#54 Posted : Thursday, August 21, 2014 3:38:59 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/18/2011
Posts: 448
S.Mutaga III wrote:
Regardless of all the positivity about this stock, which I believe is valid, the P/E is not low enough to excite me. As a disciplined investor, I will let this one pass purely because of its P/E.


@Mutaga III i repect your trading/investing strategy but history has shown that price movement and action does depend not only on technical and fundamental analysis of a company but also 'market sentiment' which can be characterised as many things including emotions,brokers advising clients,gut feelings,insider information on deals,hype,wazua gurus giving the way foward etc.

In a country like ours where information assymetry thrives backed with a skkewed principal(buyer) and agent(broker) relationship that ends with brokers advising guys on what to buy, I expect KK to gain leaps and bounds becasue the 'sentiment' is positive.

Lastly I always tell guys,there is a lot f money floating around.Its bound to seek shelter somewhere exciting.This is exciting irrespective of fundamentals and its huge debt. Henceforth I am with the bulls on this, but cautiously optimistic at ksh 12.50 to 13 FY 2014.
Kausha
#55 Posted : Thursday, August 21, 2014 4:19:15 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/8/2007
Posts: 808
I dont think its visible but KK only need to lower non working capital related debt through sale of non optimal assets to begin to make shit loads of cash. KK is a c.4.5B EBITDA Company and about 4B EBIT Company which is achievable in 2016 if not 2015. In other words 16 bob over the next 12 months price. This will make people a lot of money by the time this turn around is over
Kausha
#56 Posted : Thursday, August 21, 2014 4:27:43 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/8/2007
Posts: 808
Anybody in the know as to why KK are paying corporate tax at a rate of 33.2%- 264m during the first half yet they are carrying a deferred tax asset of 2.3 Billion. Or is this is taxation on subsidiaries.
mlennyma
#57 Posted : Thursday, August 21, 2014 4:28:54 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,183
Location: nairobi
This share is confused where to go,one minute 9,the next second 8 next 8.80 next 8.50 next 8.05...just speculation.today i have noted thousands of stuck and hungry shareholders wanting to exit from 10.let me digest what this means.
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
murchr
#58 Posted : Thursday, August 21, 2014 4:48:32 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
mlennyma wrote:
This share is confused where to go,one minute 9,the next second 8 next 8.80 next 8.50 next 8.05...just speculation.today i have noted thousands of stuck and hungry shareholders wanting to exit from 10.let me digest what this means.


What it means is that people have been dying to get out and that 9 gave them hope of exiting probably at the same price they got in.
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
littledove
#59 Posted : Thursday, August 21, 2014 5:19:07 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 7/1/2014
Posts: 903
Location: sky
I'm in this one but it seems somebody was very keen to exit at a better price than 8. if it was entry volume it could have been done before anouncement , we might stay longer in this range if this is to go by, my thinking
There are only two emotions in the stock market, fear and hope. The problem is, you hope when you should fear and fear when you should hope
Aguytrying
#60 Posted : Thursday, August 21, 2014 9:02:56 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
the only thing that would shock me price wise would be if it went below 7.90. the rest of up down behaviour, I'm so used to it. company is turning around while growing profits. I need more shares now.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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