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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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Mukiri wrote:hisah wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:hisah wrote:mnandii wrote:USDKES at 88.13. Falling as expected. Inflation up, econ slump yet bulls are trying to push the market at these lofty levels... This won't end nicely for the bulls... USD strength is definitely coming in Sept. @Hisah, what happens on Sept 15th? I see it's a day before Safcom's div book close. Black monday perhaps at the NSE? Hope not! Likely the day when some major news hits the fx market about the USD money policy as per credit market rumour mill. This, from someone who's been bearish on banks as they continue to outdo themselves? The same someone who made a wrong call on KQ not so long ago? This might be big money, making alot of noise, looking for bigger discounts, to get in. Historically, September is to the market, what January is to most salaried folk. But maybe not as dramatic as is being painted. @mukiri. My take is that this year is going to be the worst for the buy and hold people. The banks' share prices are doing good but it may be the best time to take profits. Failure to do so will only mean watching your 'unrealized' profits vanishing.  As I had stated in a previous post within this thread, I expect NSE 20 Share index to top at a max of 5450 points then fall off. And the drop will not be limited to bank stocks only.  Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2012 Posts: 5,222
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mnandii wrote:Mukiri wrote:hisah wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:hisah wrote:mnandii wrote:USDKES at 88.13. Falling as expected. Inflation up, econ slump yet bulls are trying to push the market at these lofty levels... This won't end nicely for the bulls... USD strength is definitely coming in Sept. @Hisah, what happens on Sept 15th? I see it's a day before Safcom's div book close. Black monday perhaps at the NSE? Hope not! Likely the day when some major news hits the fx market about the USD money policy as per credit market rumour mill. This, from someone who's been bearish on banks as they continue to outdo themselves? The same someone who made a wrong call on KQ not so long ago? This might be big money, making alot of noise, looking for bigger discounts, to get in. Historically, September is to the market, what January is to most salaried folk. But maybe not as dramatic as is being painted. @mukiri. My take is that this year is going to be the worst for the buy and hold people. The banks' share prices are doing good but it may be the best time to take profits. Failure to do so will only mean watching your 'unrealized' profits vanishing. As I had stated in a previous post within this thread, I expect NSE 20 Share index to top at a max of 5450 points then fall off. And the drop will not be limited to bank stocks only. Ok. Though the post was to @Hisah, who's prophesied 15 Sept to be black Monday. I'm curious seeing as I wasn't in Wazua then, did anybody here correctly predict the last global meltdown?
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Mukiri wrote:mnandii wrote:Mukiri wrote:hisah wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:hisah wrote:mnandii wrote:USDKES at 88.13. Falling as expected. Inflation up, econ slump yet bulls are trying to push the market at these lofty levels... This won't end nicely for the bulls... USD strength is definitely coming in Sept. @Hisah, what happens on Sept 15th? I see it's a day before Safcom's div book close. Black monday perhaps at the NSE? Hope not! Likely the day when some major news hits the fx market about the USD money policy as per credit market rumour mill. This, from someone who's been bearish on banks as they continue to outdo themselves? The same someone who made a wrong call on KQ not so long ago? This might be big money, making alot of noise, looking for bigger discounts, to get in. Historically, September is to the market, what January is to most salaried folk. But maybe not as dramatic as is being painted. @mukiri. My take is that this year is going to be the worst for the buy and hold people. The banks' share prices are doing good but it may be the best time to take profits. Failure to do so will only mean watching your 'unrealized' profits vanishing. As I had stated in a previous post within this thread, I expect NSE 20 Share index to top at a max of 5450 points then fall off. And the drop will not be limited to bank stocks only. Ok. Though the post was to @Hisah, who's prophesied 15 Sept to be black Monday. I'm curious seeing as I wasn't in Wazua then, did anybody here correctly predict the last global meltdown? @mukiri - I have never come across anyone that has been 100% on the money in any fin market call. If you know one, let me know 
As for Sept 15, likely marks the start of the turbulent period i.e. Sept - Nov. Not sure how low markets may dip. But a 10 - 20% dip will trigger me to be a buyer - global stocks first.
As fo KQ I made a small gain and bailed out and explained the reasons in the wazua google group.
As for KE banks, mr market is irrational and continues to ignore the CBK reports on NPLs and capital adequacy ratios. Mr market always comes round to readjust that irrational tempo. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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 After the triangle comes a thrust. KES$ at 88.45 presently. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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mnandii wrote:After the triangle comes a thrust. KES$ at 88.45 presently. NSE20 bullish, KES weakening. Now when did I see this pattern? Q3 2010... 
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 4/1/2014 Posts: 47
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@hisah.pls enlighten us on the chart of cfc.after stagnating at 128 then a sharp drop.i don't think there was bad news to warrant the drop.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Kagame wrote:@hisah.pls enlighten us on the chart of cfc.after stagnating at 128 then a sharp drop.i don't think there was bad news to warrant the drop. The economy slump doesn't offer any cheer for the market to mount a strong rally.
I don't care how far mr market is willing to stretch the bank stocks up, all I can foresee is a correction in order for mr market to be in sync with the econ mood/slump. - @muchiri - bookmark this statement...
KES down, econ slump while NSE up is a trump vote that reads 2/3 or 66% in favour of a slump. NSE vote says 33% bullish. Econ majority says 66% bearish. The NSE bull push is unsustainable in such an econ environment. Waiting for the discounts
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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hisah wrote:Kagame wrote:@hisah.pls enlighten us on the chart of cfc.after stagnating at 128 then a sharp drop.i don't think there was bad news to warrant the drop. The economy slump doesn't offer any cheer for the market to mount a strong rally.
I don't care how far mr market is willing to stretch the bank stocks up, all I can foresee is a correction in order for mr market to be in sync with the econ mood/slump. - @muchiri - bookmark this statement...
KES down, econ slump while NSE up is a trump vote that reads 2/3 or 66% in favour of a slump. NSE vote says 33% bullish. Econ majority says 66% bearish. The NSE bull push is unsustainable in such an econ environment. Waiting for the discounts
Consider it done. "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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If USDKES breaks above 90 it opens up 95 which means NSE will definitely start bending lower (selling pressure increases). Both are never aligned since they are inversely related. Bulls need KES to strength to keep the steam up... $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2012 Posts: 5,222
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Kagame wrote:@hisah.pls enlighten us on the chart of cfc.after stagnating at 128 then a sharp drop.i don't think there was bad news to warrant the drop. CFC is temporary under-performing as foreign investors have reached their max allowable. That should tell you something. #neversellagoodthing
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