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karanjakinuthia
#141 Posted : Thursday, December 31, 2009 8:58:39 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 551
Location: Nairobi
"Socialism works until you run out of other people's money" - Margaret Thatcher

"Congress approved an increase in the debt limit from $12.1 trillion on Thursday, winning two more months of funding for a record U.S. deficit as Obama tries to stimulate economic growth after the country's worst recession in 70 years.

Critics say Democrat Obama is making the deficit worse, but the White House blames the recession and unfunded cuts in taxes and prescription drug aid, which were all inherited from his Republican predecessor George W. Bush..."

Read more:

http://www.reuters.com/a...e/idUSTRE5BR3GK20091228


Is it all Just a Ponzi Scheme?

http://jsmineset.com/wp-...Just-a-Ponzi-Scheme_.pdf
karanjakinuthia
#142 Posted : Monday, January 04, 2010 5:57:34 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 551
Location: Nairobi
Could Kenya enjoy an annus mirabilis (year of wonders) after enduring two adverse years?

"Economic sectors that had positive performance in the third quarter of 2009 will prop up overall economic growth in 2010, although their overall productivity is limited to 10 per cent of the national economy.

Hotels and restaurants, financial services, real estate, renting and business services and wholesale and retail trade had positive growth and will continue to do so, said analysts and industry players.

The combined sectors contributed Sh38 billion to the economy in third quarter of 2009, or about 11 per cent of the total economic value of Sh345 billion in the same period...."

Read more:

http://www.businessdaily...0/-/c32uarz/-/index.html
karanjakinuthia
#143 Posted : Monday, January 04, 2010 7:21:12 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 551
Location: Nairobi
"And what a revolution! Compare a tenfold growth of gross domestic product in the space of 26 years with a fourfold increase in the space of 70. The former has been China’s achievement between 1978 and 2004; the latter was Britain’s between 1830 and 1900. Or consider the fact that US GDP was more than eight times that of China’s at the beginning of this decade. Now it is barely four times larger – and if the projections from Jim O’Neill, Goldman Sachs’ chief economist, prove to be correct, China will overtake America as soon as 2027: in less than two decades...."

Read more:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/...e-a888-00144feab49a.html
karanjakinuthia
#144 Posted : Tuesday, January 05, 2010 5:31:59 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 551
Location: Nairobi
I present to you three price and time projections for Gold as it seems to have found a base at $1080:

Jim Sinclair:
Gold will appreciate to $1224 and then to $1650. All this will be history by January 14th 2011
www.jsmineset.com

Alf Field:
Major ONE up from $256 to $1,015 (actually 4 times the $255 low); 
Major TWO down from $1015 to $699, say $700 (a decline of 31%); 
Major THREE up from $700 to $3,500 (a Fibonacci 5 times the $500 low); 
Major FOUR down from $3,500 to $2,500 (a 29% decline); 
Major FIVE up from $2,500 to $10,000 (also a 4 fold increase, same as ONE)
http://news.goldseek.com/AlfField/1227596760.php

Martin Armstrong:
A major high is possible as early as 2010-2011 with the potential for an exponential rally into 2015 if there is any kind of a low going into 2011.
http://jsmineset.com/ind...10/armstrong-economics/
Scubidu
#145 Posted : Tuesday, January 05, 2010 10:04:16 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
@karanjakinuthia. Happy 2010.

That was a great post (44) on the ponzi scheme. There was one part in the article page 3 "We are now in a situation, however, where the Fed is printing dollars to buy Treasuries as a means of faking the Treasury's ability to attract outside capital...it amazes us that the US can successfully issue a record number Treasuries in this environment without the slightest hiccup in the market".

Does that sounds familiar particularly within the Kenyan set-up? Off course the cbk is not buying treasuries but it is printing shillings.

It is all a ponzi-scheme with an imperative for govt debts to be rolled-over forever. The problem that Kenneth Boulding alludes to is that the world's resources are finite so the debtholders will demand more from the real world to back those debts. This is not sustainable. When the govt word on backing it's debts is no longer reliable, then the market responds accordingly, by buying gold.
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
karanjakinuthia
#146 Posted : Wednesday, January 06, 2010 6:11:53 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 551
Location: Nairobi
@ Scubidu. A Happy 2010 to you too!

The article is well written utilising Occam's razor(the simplest explanation or strategy tends to be the best one). It concludes that the U.S. bond markets are levitating with the support of the Federal Reserve. The markets are looking ahead and questioning the sustainability of this strategy; voting with their feet by investing in gold as hedge against destabilisation of the state.

Two entities are responsible for money supply in an economy: the central bank and banking system. It is perfectly natural for money supply from both conduits to grow along with the economic output. Think of it as food intake in proportion to level of activity. Adversity soon knocks upon an economy with excessive money printing or leverage in the banking sector.

The world abandoned gold as money due to its limited supply which could not keep up with global trade volumes. Nevertheless, it may well play a role as a control mechanism in a One World Currency or Super Sovereign Reserve Currency.
karanjakinuthia
#147 Posted : Wednesday, January 06, 2010 6:13:13 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 551
Location: Nairobi
India's thirst for gold comes as no surprise given its performance as a store of wealth from the 1970s as demonstrated in the Rupee price chart (bottom in the link page below):

http://www.research.gold.org/prices/monthly/


"NEW DELHI, Jan 4 (Reuters) - India imported 300-350 tonnes of gold in 2009, higher that the previous estimate of a little over 200 tonnes, the head of the Bombay Bullion Association said on Monday.

Suresh Hundia said the trade body had also revised its estimate of imports in 2008 to 439 tonnes from 420 tonnes.

"Figures of export houses had to be revised ... Data for eight months had to be revised," he said.

Hundia said the estimate changed significantly because data from several large trading houses, which were allowed to import gold in early 2009, was not available earlier.

On Jan. 1, Hundia said India imported "a little over 200 tonnes" in 2009..."

http://www.reuters.com/a...otStocksNews&rpc=401
Scubidu
#148 Posted : Thursday, January 07, 2010 11:41:30 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
@karanjakinuthia. wrt to post 146. Do you know of any plans concerning the One World Currency or Super Sovereign Currency? I haven't followed this subject closely but I would like to know if people have a timeline as to when this may happen. What is stopping countries worldwide from ditching the dollar as the reserve currency?

Would you say that the formation of the ECB and the use of the Euro may have been the beginning of the One World Currency idea? You think we could one day have a African Central Bank (ACB) working for the AU?

I don't think any control mechanism (gold-based or other) is sufficient to control money supply as long as fractional reserve banking remains legal.
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
karanjakinuthia
#149 Posted : Friday, January 08, 2010 12:55:53 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 551
Location: Nairobi
@Scubidu. I had covered the issue of a One World Currency in an earlier post. I have no idea on the timeline for all I privy to are voices of discontent such as those of Nicolas Sarkozy, the Chinese and the Russians.

Central bankers are first human, second bureaucrats therefore will act when it is absolutely necessary. Usually, too late. Take for instance the dumping of gold by central banks from 2001 to 2008 whilst the price was edging upwards. Watch as scramble to outbid each other in the coming years. The reserve status of the Dollar has its foundation in the subconscious mind of the central banker and will only change when a Dollar crisis unfolds.

The Euro is on the ascendancy as an alternative to the Dollar although it is beset by problems in Greece, Spain, Ireland and Eastern Europe. For it to improve its rating, it would have to axe these nations from the union.

I have no idea as concerns the African Central Bank. I would only hope that it will not have a uniform interest rate as is the case for the European Central Bank.

The gold control mechanism is designated for the One World Currency that exists outside the precincts of individual nations. It would ensure that international liquidity would have an anchor that all players have trust in. An increase in money supply would have to be backed by increase in gold reserves, global liquidity and/or global GDP.

[quote=karanjakinuthia]The ripple effect of U.S. financial policy on the entire world is explained in the article as the Triffin Dilemma. Increasingly, voices of discontent are being heard drumming support for a One World Currency or Super Sovereign Reserve Currency backed by a Global Central Bank.

Martin Armstrong's historical studies shows us that gold was the One World Currency during the Byzantine Empire as the "solidus", slang name "Byzant" between 500 and 1250 AD.

Centuries later, the 1944 Bretton Woods plan was to fix the Dollar to $35 of gold and set it as the reserve currency of the world. The former gave way with the establishment of a two tier-tier gold standard in 1968 and the eventual collapse of the gold standard in 1971. The latter is presently under threat of dissolution.

"A new global currency should replace the US dollar as the international reserve currency, as the long-term deterioration of America's economy and the greenback is fuelling a "currency-regime crisis", says Martin Wolf, associate editor and chief economics commentator of the Financial Times..."

Read more:

http://www.business24-7....a981282abc0ee85802.aspx[/quote]


Sentiments from France's president:

"PARIS, Jan 7 (Reuters) - Disorder among world currencies has become unacceptable and France intends to make it a major subject of its presidency of the G8 and G20 in 2011, President Nicolas Sarkozy said on Thursday...."

Read more:

http://www.reuters.com/a...100107?type=marketsNews

karanjakinuthia
#150 Posted : Friday, January 08, 2010 2:17:31 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 551
Location: Nairobi
History certainly rhymes.In the 70s the French requested the U.S. to that guarantee its massive spending spree would be backed by a commensurate increase in gold reserves. The latter couldn't, therefore France, Switzerland and Britain cashed in their dollars for gold. The U.S. did not have sufficient gold to meet these obligations therefore chose to close the "gold window" and the gold standard.

" PARIS, Jan 7 (Reuters) - Disorder among world currencies has become unacceptable and France intends to make it a major subject of its presidency of the G8 and G20 in 2011, President Nicolas Sarkozy said on Thursday.

France has been at the forefront of European complaints about the strength of the euro against other currencies..."

Read more:

http://www.reuters.com/a...0100107?type=marketsNews
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