DETAILED ANALYTICS

Working Long Term Chart of the NSE 20 Share Index:


Wave B is from March 2009 and subdivides into Waves [a], ..[ .b] and [c].

The target top is calculated as follows:
1. Length of wave A = (6161.46 - 2360.01) = 3801.45 points
0.786 X wave A = wave B
Therefore: 0.786 X 3801.45 = 2987.94 points
Add 2987.94 points to Wave A bottom to get the end of wave B:

2987.94 + 2360.01 = 5347.95

2. The Widest Height of the triangle added to wave [ .e] bottom gives a target for final wave.
Wave [ .b], in our case, is the widest (tallest) and therefore:
(5137.21 - 4561.74) = 575.47 points

Wave [e] bottom at 4863.87 + 575.47 = 5439.34

3.

Wave [a] length = ( 4701.15 - 2360.01 ) = 2341.14
For Wave [a] = Wave [c] ( a common wave relationship) then we add the length of wave [ .a] to bottom of wave [ .b] to get the top of wave [c] (and also wave B).

Therefore: (2341.14 + 3070.36) = 5411.5

AND THUS THE TARGETED RANGE >> 5340 - 5440 POINTS FOR NSE 20 SHARE INDEX.

Great attempt @mnandii at calling the top. I think we are in agreement that we shall get here early to mid September(16th Sept) and then the fall. But it may be earlier if the 90 USDKES psychological level is breached this week.

@mnandii - what happens when stocks in a market are printing all time highs while the underlying index (NSE20 - strongest 20) is no where near all time highs? What happens when the broader index (NASI - all stocks) is at all time highs with a number of stocks at all time highs?

That divergence between NSE20 and NASI will have to solve and settle at the same zone. And since the 20 strongest index is lagging, NASI has to come back and meet NSE20...

Rallies start with the strongest and finish with the weaklings. Weaklings have been on fire...

The World Health Organization says the Ebola epidemic that erupted in western Africa in March 2014 is “the largest recorded outbreak” of the disease. Aside from one case in the Ivory Coast in 1994, the Ebola outbreak is western Africa’s first. Why here, why now?

In truth, and consistent with socionomic theory, the area’s financial and macroeconomic situation worsened before the outbreak. Negative social mood creates conditions conducive to epidemics, and one of the best mood indicators available is a region’s chief stock index. Figure 1 plots the Market Vectors Nigeria-Focused Western Africa Index, which tracks “the overall performance of the largest and most liquid companies in Nigeria and West Africa.” The blue and red lines at the lower right plot cumulative Ebola cases and deaths in Guinea, Liberia, Sierra Leone and Nigeria. Much as we have shown with cholera, Spanish flu, polio, HIV/AIDS, SARS and H1N1 flu, this epidemic followed classic socionomic timing: It erupted after years of a trend toward negative social mood.

Most people assume that social stress follows the fear, chaos and disruption of an outbreak – and some of it does. But most importantly, the data also show that stress precedes epidemics and fosters an environment ripe for the spread of infectious disease. “Ebola May Have Been Smoldering for Years,” reported NBC News on July 20.

USDKES at 88.13. Falling as expected.

@Hisah, what happens on Sept 15th? I see it's a day before Safcom's div book close. Black monday perhaps at the NSE? Hope not!