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Why Kenol?
Mainat
#1 Posted : Tuesday, August 12, 2014 10:41:39 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/21/2006
Posts: 1,590
I keep seeing Wazuans hailing KK as an opportunity. Vhy? When I read recent Ohana announcements all he is talking about is reducing borrowings. How will he replace this funding? Hint-sales, maintenance? VVs who is an expert on the stock has not been as enthusiastic mentioning the rundown state of retail outlets, removal of freebies and a shy marketing approach.
SO. Those getting excited. What do you know? If you say price is low, can you prove the fundamentals are the same as when KK was Ksh12?
Sehemu ndio nyumba
hisah
#2 Posted : Tuesday, August 12, 2014 3:51:38 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Still an acquisition target for the sharks.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
faa
#3 Posted : Tuesday, August 12, 2014 4:05:17 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/8/2007
Posts: 709
Kenol is still open to strategic investors acquisition.,it's open for such possibility, and many suitors continue to show interest..

getting it's books in order, minimizing debt..
Othelo
#4 Posted : Tuesday, August 12, 2014 4:24:40 PM
Rank: User


Joined: 1/20/2014
Posts: 3,528
M&A (more so A) could be the reason Ohana is more interested in playing around with debt financing and costs associated therein while neglecting the delivery plaform and business performance!
Formal education will make you a living. Self-education will make you a fortune - Jim Rohn.
dunkang
#5 Posted : Tuesday, August 12, 2014 5:26:22 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2011
Posts: 4,818
Location: -1.2107, 36.8831
Mainat wrote:
I keep seeing Wazuans hailing KK as an opportunity. Vhy? When I read recent Ohana announcements all he is talking about is reducing borrowings. How will he replace this funding? Hint-sales, maintenance? VVs who is an expert on the stock has not been as enthusiastic mentioning the rundown state of retail outlets, removal of freebies and a shy marketing approach.
SO. Those getting excited. What do you know? If you say price is low, can you prove the fundamentals are the same as when KK was Ksh12?

You ask a question i should have asked eons ago.

What is it that KK fanatics see that i don't?
Receive with simplicity everything that happens to you.” ― Rashi

VituVingiSana
#6 Posted : Tuesday, August 12, 2014 9:09:46 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,121
Location: Nairobi
@mainat is right. I have NOT been as enthusiastic about KK. As he hinted the 'savings' are coming from lack of maintenance and sales/marketing budget.

Borrowings: These will be reduced using proceeds from sale of properties. The "false savings" [lack of maintenance] will disappear once KK decides to improve the look and feel of their stations.

Sales: I expect a drop due to closing or reducing unprofitable lines. I expect the Gross Margin to rise.

Assets: I believe their assets are very valuable and an attractive proposition for an investor with cash to invest IN the business. If I were the "Board" I would look for a strategic investor to reduce Biwott's presence while getting cash to reduce debt, increase trading opportunities and spruce up the image. How? NOT by having them buy existing shares BUT by investing NEW cash. Let KK sell 25-51% of the business at a price that is fair [even a premium to current share price] and allows the 'new' KK to grow back into a regional giant.

KK needs to attract the lost customers. There were issues with the K-Card when customers were asked to pay at the Head Office! What a waste of time. And loss of sales.

Do not expect a takeover in 2014. Earliest in 2015. I prefer the Strategic Investor vs a Takeover for long(er) term value.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Tall Order
#7 Posted : Wednesday, August 13, 2014 5:57:55 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/9/2014
Posts: 130
Location: Nairobi
Thanks @Mainat, VVS for your insight into Kenol, it was fronted quite a bit by several wazuans, you walk into a Shell station or Total and you feel that's where you want to be, not at Kenol anymore, the stations all look to be in a dilapidated state showing some sort of neglect, needs re-branding a bit to become attractive but that costs extra money that they may not have right now.
Mainat
#8 Posted : Wednesday, August 13, 2014 6:46:08 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/21/2006
Posts: 1,590
In sum, the majority of the KK wazuans are "hope" investors? What if there is no takeover? Can you live with that KK share? Puma walked away at Ksh14 and only another takeover will take the price to those heights. In the absence of the whiteknight, I like VVS view of its assets, but fear that Piwott is an old man who just wants out. Where will the funds to refresh the brand come from?

A strategic investor is ideal, but frankly, selling oil is a thin margin business and unless KK is a better proposition beyond that,I can' see what a strategic investor would want.

Conclusion: as a standalone maiden, KK is probably worth Ksh10-12, IF it can avoid past fx loss issue.


Half year results should be with us by the end of the month
Sehemu ndio nyumba
murchr
#9 Posted : Wednesday, August 13, 2014 6:49:54 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
I asked the same Q here but what do i know? Am just glad i chose to pick Safcom at 7.25 over it, Still at the same price for over a year


Quote:
Many will be left out thinking the only power/energy that is needed is that which can light a house. I've been accumulating KPLC KENGEN at every dip. KK is yet to entice me, i havent seen how it will all roll out for this counter.......acquisition maybe? Help me out here.
I am hoping that after a successful listing of the NSE, GOK will think of privatising NOCK that will be one big player given that it plays both upstream and downstream. they need money for capacity building
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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