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How to tell NSE has bottomed out
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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@hisah. that there ^^ is the response to anyone asking. should I buy this? wanjiku took time, but is now full swing in the market. but I've realised there are still some gems. B.O.C, serena, bamburi. but no body wants these now, rather chase equity and hfck to the high heavens The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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A person who bought Britank (now britam) in January 2012 for 4.00 today at 22.00 would have realised at profit of 450%!!! as you invest 1 million. 2.5 years later it's turned into 5.5 million. isn't this just unbelievable. it got me thinking can home afrika. pull of a similar reversal. does it have a sustainable business model?? the way its beaten by the market is very similar to what Britank went through. rip of ipo, drop in profits, hammered by market. Britanks lowest point was 3.80. tafakari hayo nduguzanguni The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,220 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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Aguytrying wrote:A person who bought Britank (now britam) in January 2012 for 4.00 today at 22.00 would have realised at profit of 450%!!! as you invest 1 million. 2.5 years later it's turned into 5.5 million.
isn't this just unbelievable.
it got me thinking can home afrika. pull of a similar reversal. does it have a sustainable business model?? the way its beaten by the market is very similar to what Britank went through. rip of ipo, drop in profits, hammered by market. Britanks lowest point was 3.80.
tafakari hayo nduguzanguni Memories.That market correction in late 2011 was serious.Paper losses had hit the roof.There were countless threads on T/bills,bonds and plots  @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 7/1/2014 Posts: 903 Location: sky
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http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/Opinion-and-Analysis/Banks-will-need-Sh70-billion-in-new-capital-rules/-/539548/2396452/-/item/1/-/116g06v/-/index.htmlListed banks remain the hardest hit, with their aggregate capital adequacy ratio declining to 15 per cent at the close of the first quarter compared to 20.7 per cent at the close of 2013. There are only two emotions in the stock market, fear and hope. The problem is, you hope when you should fear and fear when you should hope
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 7/1/2014 Posts: 903 Location: sky
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apart from listed banks a massive 33 non listed banks does not meet capital adequancy requirement, will this trigger acquisitions and mergers There are only two emotions in the stock market, fear and hope. The problem is, you hope when you should fear and fear when you should hope
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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We crossed 5000 5/8 how long with that hold? Time will tell "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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murchr wrote:We crossed 5000 5/8 how long with that hold? Time will tell Just on time for the NSE IPO...
The econ fundies (liquidity squeeze, inflation and econ slump) do not support the lofty market valuations. If MSC was still in the NSE20 index component, the gauge would be lower.
The 1yr NSE20 triangle broke lower and I expect this rebound to run out of gas in Sept-Oct 2014.
The last time the mr market ignored econ fundies was back in Q3 2010. From Q4 2013 the same symptoms showed up.
I'm bearish banks and many are at all time highs 
** All time highs are perfect selling zones **
Coincidentally global stocks are also in the all time highs boat.
Perfect storm
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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A storm indeed. DOW already falling.. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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So why has hisah been building a long term energy portfolio since 2011? http://csis.org/story/af...a-united-states-and-oil
http://www.politico.com/...-14b-africa-109718.html
It's the scramble for energy and infrastructure just like what happened during colonialism. But this time the power shift stays in Africa since for the global econ to survive another 100yrs, Africa MUST be part of it! And Africa MUST get upgraded to 1st world level! The building of the greatest global economy is happening right now, but the continent is in disbelief as well as the rest of the planet. Hot money doesn't gamble. Its actions are deliberate... Some veterans have boarded the KPLC bus - stockmaster, mwekezaji, deal, myself. Nani wengine? I've started with KPLC. I also mentioned Kengen, KK, cables for now. TCL is also on my radar. I'm scouting more in Africa. Still holding Africa oil from 2011. @mainat left the bus a while back. And so I've let out some cats from the bag... ** Because Africa is getting its biggest upgrade since industrialization, global markets will have to get discounted (sold) to raise the money ** #Funding infrastructure 101 $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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Many will be left out thinking the only power/energy that is needed is that which can light a house. I've been accumulating KPLC KENGEN at every dip. KK is yet to entice me, i havent seen how it will all roll out for this counter.......acquisition maybe? Help me out here. I am hoping that after a successful listing of the NSE, GOK will think of privatising NOCK that will be one big player given that it plays both upstream and downstream. they need money for capacity building "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 1/20/2011 Posts: 1,820 Location: Nakuru
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hisah wrote:So why has hisah been building a long term energy portfolio since 2011? http://csis.org/story/af...a-united-states-and-oil
http://www.politico.com/...-14b-africa-109718.html
It's the scramble for energy and infrastructure just like what happened during colonialism. But this time the power shift stays in Africa since for the global econ to survive another 100yrs, Africa MUST be part of it! And Africa MUST get upgraded to 1st world level! The building of the greatest global economy is happening right now, but the continent is in disbelief as well as the rest of the planet. Hot money doesn't gamble. Its actions are deliberate... Some veterans have boarded the KPLC bus - stockmaster, mwekezaji, deal, myself. Nani wengine? I've started with KPLC. I also mentioned Kengen, KK, cables for now. TCL is also on my radar. I'm scouting more in Africa. Still holding Africa oil from 2011. @mainat left the bus a while back. And so I've let out some cats from the bag... ** Because Africa is getting its biggest upgrade since industrialization, global markets will have to get discounted (sold) to raise the money ** #Funding infrastructure 101 ditto..... Dumb money becomes dumb only when it listens to smart money
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Rank: Member Joined: 5/28/2014 Posts: 149 Location: Nairobi
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murchr wrote:We crossed 5000 5/8 how long with that hold? Time will tell Maybe we need a new thread - How to tell NSE is boiling over. When you live for others' opinions, you are dead.
- Carlos Slim Helu
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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DBLyon wrote:murchr wrote:We crossed 5000 5/8 how long with that hold? Time will tell Maybe we need a new thread - How to tell NSE is boiling over. There's one named Madness at the NSE Wk close above 5000 but signs of weakness. @Mweke any numbers on foreign participation? "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 7/1/2014 Posts: 903 Location: sky
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murchr wrote:DBLyon wrote:murchr wrote:We crossed 5000 5/8 how long with that hold? Time will tell Maybe we need a new thread - How to tell NSE is boiling over. There's one named Madness at the NSE Wk close above 5000 but signs of weakness. @Mweke any numbers on foreign participation? There are only two emotions in the stock market, fear and hope. The problem is, you hope when you should fear and fear when you should hope
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 7/1/2014 Posts: 903 Location: sky
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murchr wrote:DBLyon wrote:murchr wrote:We crossed 5000 5/8 how long with that hold? Time will tell Maybe we need a new thread - How to tell NSE is boiling over. There's one named Madness at the NSE Wk close above 5000 but signs of weakness. @Mweke any numbers on foreign participation? 'data from CMA show foreigners cumulatively held 28.03 % of listed stocks as at June 30 nearing levels last seen in 2004 of 29.8% There are only two emotions in the stock market, fear and hope. The problem is, you hope when you should fear and fear when you should hope
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 7/1/2014 Posts: 903 Location: sky
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littledove wrote:murchr wrote:DBLyon wrote:murchr wrote:We crossed 5000 5/8 how long with that hold? Time will tell Maybe we need a new thread - How to tell NSE is boiling over. There's one named Madness at the NSE Wk close above 5000 but signs of weakness. @Mweke any numbers on foreign participation? ' data from CMA show foreigners cumulatively held 28.03% of listed stocks as at June 30 nearing levels last seen in 2004 of 29.8% ' There are only two emotions in the stock market, fear and hope. The problem is, you hope when you should fear and fear when you should hope
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2012 Posts: 5,222
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Why do you keep repeating 'Bearish banks', and yet you'd written you were also holding onto CFC for the long-term? That 'Bearish Banks' has been going against your prediction for a very long time now 
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Mukiri wrote:Why do you keep repeating 'Bearish banks', and yet you'd written you were also holding onto CFC for the long-term? That 'Bearish Banks' has been going against your prediction for a very long time now @mukiri - I have been very clear about being bearish banks and sold those that I held except CFC which I said was a long term play. Reason is I got in so cheap at 40/- and their long term finance game is yet to fully run its course if you also follow its parent (standard bank).
The reason I'm bearish banks is coz the econ is in a slump and I don't like the way NPLs have refused to shrink since 2012. The profit margins will soon start shrinking. And if the profits shrink when most of them are printing all time highs, the selling pressure will have power.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2012 Posts: 5,222
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hisah wrote:Mukiri wrote:Why do you keep repeating 'Bearish banks', and yet you'd written you were also holding onto CFC for the long-term? That 'Bearish Banks' has been going against your prediction for a very long time now @mukiri - I have been very clear about being bearish banks and sold those that I held except CFC which I said was a long term play. Reason is I got in so cheap at 40/- and their long term finance game is yet to fully run its course if you also follow its parent (standard bank).
The reason I'm bearish banks is coz the econ is in a slump and I don't like the way NPLs have refused to shrink since 2012. The profit margins will soon start shrinking. And if the profits shrink when most of them are printing all time highs, the selling pressure will have power.
Fair enough, but if you reckon the economy is in a slump, why are you promoting Energy stocks with the declaration that Africa MUST be upgraded to 1st world? Its suspect when you advocate against stocks(banks) for cash, then a few weeks later for stocks(energy), then... And I remember you regretting having missed the HF bus? 
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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@mukiri. research what he says and come to your own decision, own the idea to be able to hang on even when it no longer makes sense The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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