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murchr
#4321 Posted : Wednesday, July 30, 2014 8:55:38 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
mnandii wrote:
murchr wrote:
Will Argentina default?

Understanding Argentina’s Coming Default

Quote:
At the time of this writing, Argentina is a few days away from formally defaulting on its debts.How could this happen three times in just twenty-eight years?

link



12 more hours...
http://www.economist.com...7/economist-explains-22

"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
mnandii
#4322 Posted : Wednesday, July 30, 2014 9:50:33 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
Mastermind wrote:
mnandii wrote:
Travel firm says Kenya 'joking' about tourism figures
Tourism Figures Not Pretty


When i read that statement by KTB i assumed they meant Arrivals and not tourist arrivals.

Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#4323 Posted : Wednesday, July 30, 2014 9:54:18 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
murchr wrote:
mnandii wrote:
murchr wrote:
Will Argentina default?

Understanding Argentina’s Coming Default

Quote:
At the time of this writing, Argentina is a few days away from formally defaulting on its debts.How could this happen three times in just twenty-eight years?

link



12 more hours...
http://www.economist.com...7/economist-explains-22


Argentina's is a classic failure of Keynesianism: The belief that deficits are 'good' for the economy is a misplaced notion.

Quote:
It could be said that Judge Griesa had to do little more than read the contract that Argentina offered its creditors. In spite of this, much has been said in Argentina (and abroad) about how Judge Griesa’s ruling damages the legal security of sovereign bonds and debt restructuring.

The problem is not Judge Griesa’s ruling. The problem is that Argentina had decided to once again prefer deficits and unrestrained government spending to paying its obligations. Griesa’s ruling suggests that a default cannot be used as a political tool to ignore contracts at politician’s convenience.


Quote:
A ruling favorable to Argentina’s government would have allowed a government to violate its own contracts, making it even harder for poor countries to access capital.

We can simplify the case to an analogy on a smaller scale. Try to explain to your bank that since it was you who squandered your earnings for more than a decade,you have the right to not pay the mortgage with which you purchased your home. When the bank takes you to court for not paying your mortgage, explain to the judge that you are a poor victim of evil money vultures and that you have the right to ignore creditors because you couldn’t be bothered with changing your unsustainable spending habits. When the judge rules against you, try to explain to the world in international newspapers how the decision of the judge is an injustice that endangers the international banking market (as the Argentine government has been doing recently). Try now to justify the position of the Argentine government.


same link
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#4324 Posted : Wednesday, July 30, 2014 9:57:58 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
Mastermind wrote:
mnandii wrote:
Travel firm says Kenya 'joking' about tourism figures
Tourism Figures Not Pretty


When i read that statement by KTB i assumed they meant Arrivals and not tourist arrivals.

Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
murchr
#4325 Posted : Wednesday, July 30, 2014 11:10:19 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
Mastermind wrote:
mnandii wrote:
Travel firm says Kenya 'joking' about tourism figures
Tourism Figures Not Pretty


When i read that statement by KTB i assumed they meant Arrivals and not tourist arrivals.


All arrivals are tourists. The how much they spend and where they spend it is the question.
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
murchr
#4326 Posted : Thursday, July 31, 2014 5:14:00 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
mnandii wrote:
murchr wrote:
mnandii wrote:
murchr wrote:
Will Argentina default?

Understanding Argentina’s Coming Default

Quote:
At the time of this writing, Argentina is a few days away from formally defaulting on its debts.How could this happen three times in just twenty-eight years?

link



12 more hours...
http://www.economist.com...7/economist-explains-22


Argentina's is a classic failure of Keynesianism: The belief that deficits are 'good' for the economy is a misplaced notion.

Quote:
It could be said that Judge Griesa had to do little more than read the contract that Argentina offered its creditors. In spite of this, much has been said in Argentina (and abroad) about how Judge Griesa’s ruling damages the legal security of sovereign bonds and debt restructuring.

The problem is not Judge Griesa’s ruling. The problem is that Argentina had decided to once again prefer deficits and unrestrained government spending to paying its obligations. Griesa’s ruling suggests that a default cannot be used as a political tool to ignore contracts at politician’s convenience.


Quote:
A ruling favorable to Argentina’s government would have allowed a government to violate its own contracts, making it even harder for poor countries to access capital.

We can simplify the case to an analogy on a smaller scale. Try to explain to your bank that since it was you who squandered your earnings for more than a decade,you have the right to not pay the mortgage with which you purchased your home. When the bank takes you to court for not paying your mortgage, explain to the judge that you are a poor victim of evil money vultures and that you have the right to ignore creditors because you couldn’t be bothered with changing your unsustainable spending habits. When the judge rules against you, try to explain to the world in international newspapers how the decision of the judge is an injustice that endangers the international banking market (as the Argentine government has been doing recently). Try now to justify the position of the Argentine government.


same link



Argentina Declared in Default by S&P as Talks Fail

"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
Thiong'o
#4327 Posted : Monday, August 04, 2014 7:59:05 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 10/14/2011
Posts: 661
11 Countries Near Bankruptcy

The countries with the lowest credit ratings significantly differ from one another. They span the globe, ranging from Greece and Ukraine in Europe, to Pakistan in Asia, to Ecuador, Venezuela, and Belize in South America.
These nations also suffer from vastly different problems. Some nations, such as Ukraine and Egypt, owe their recent downgrades to political conditions. Others, such as Belize and Ecuador, have actually been upgraded in recent years based on their improved financial positions.

http://www.huffingtonpos...id=txtlnkusaolp00000592
The optimist
#4328 Posted : Monday, August 04, 2014 8:22:27 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/14/2010
Posts: 521
Location: Nairobi
East African Community banks poised for strong growth:
Strong growth and expansion are likely over the next two years for the five banking systems within the East African Community, says a new report by Moody's Investors Service.
- See more at: http://www.ftseglobalmarkets.com/news/east-african-community-banks-poised-for-strong-growth.html#sthash.YrehYQG2.dpuf
hisah
#4329 Posted : Tuesday, August 05, 2014 3:12:51 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
GE warns that closing ExIm Bank would hit US-Africa trade - http://www.cnbc.com/id/101891211

Ching people are making the US uncomfy when it comes to Africa trade smile
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
murchr
#4330 Posted : Tuesday, August 05, 2014 8:47:07 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
Just thinking wildly, will we ever see a day where commodities will be traded on the exchange in Kenya? Silver, Gold etc? How does it happen elsewhere?
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
whiteowl
#4331 Posted : Tuesday, August 05, 2014 11:00:39 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/16/2014
Posts: 1,420
Location: Bohemian Grove
murchr wrote:
Just thinking wildly, will we ever see a day where commodities will be traded on the exchange in Kenya? Silver, Gold etc? How does it happen elsewhere?

there was this story sometimes last year
then this other one though it sounds more of the mining companies listing than futures being brought on board.
mnandii
#4332 Posted : Wednesday, August 06, 2014 6:55:48 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
whiteowl wrote:
murchr wrote:
Just thinking wildly, will we ever see a day where commodities will be traded on the exchange in Kenya? Silver, Gold etc? How does it happen elsewhere?

there was this story sometimes last year
then this other one though it sounds more of the mining companies listing than futures being brought on board.

Yes! Quite disappointing that the promise hasn't materialized.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
hisah
#4333 Posted : Tuesday, August 12, 2014 6:04:21 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Sometimes the future is the present.

The real petrodollar fight started here - http://www.businessweek....et-and-financial-advice

Since the Libya was taken down, Iran still hanging on sanctions after sanctions, now its russia's turn with sanctions.

The BRICs bank is making things very unstable for the petrodollar hegemony now that it has launched earlier than expected.

What gives for the petrodollar? Use of military might has not been working for a while and finances are too stretched. Next move, hike the USD Fed rate to 'return' value to this paper. USD gains value and oil/commodities/equities take a nosedive.

The reserve currency survival fight is about to get ugly...

**A debasement event looms**
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
hisah
#4334 Posted : Wednesday, August 13, 2014 7:20:28 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
The number of surreal IPOs globally is still on the rise. But something happened recently 6 days after a surreal IPO floated and was pulled off... The biotech sector was hot last year, but this party is about to get done with a strong hangover soon.

http://www.bloomberg.com...trading-for-6-days.html
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
hisah
#4335 Posted : Friday, August 15, 2014 6:59:55 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Absa ditches African Bank investments

Quote:
Absa Bank has removed all African Bank Investments Limited investments (Abil) from its Absa Money Market Fund, it said on Friday.

The Times reported on Friday that investments in the bank's money market fund were reduced by 0.3 percent following the massive losses in African Bank, which saw its share price plummet to a low of 28 cents on Friday from a high of R30 a share in March 2012.

On Monday, the statements of Absa money market account-holders had a line that reportedly read “adjustement (sic) debit” and a rand figure with a negative symbol in front of it.

Several account-holders reported noticing less money in their accounts.

The SA Reserve Bank (SARB) announced on Sunday that it had placed African Bank under curatorship.


And that's how the shareholder value for ABIL investors has been destroyed. ABIL finally goes belly up.

ABIL stock chart - http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/ABL:SJ

Flashback... This JSE market???

$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
hisah
#4336 Posted : Tuesday, August 19, 2014 4:41:15 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Hedge Funds Boost Bad-Loan Prices as U.S. Sales Increase

Quote:
Sales of U.S. delinquent mortgages are accelerating as lenders rush to meet demand from hedge funds and private-equity firms that has sent prices surging.


And we back to the days when PMI (private mortgage insurance) was full steam frontloading risky mortgages. As usual when the train derails the regulators will claim nobody could have seen it coming...Liar Shame on you
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
karanjakinuthia
#4337 Posted : Tuesday, August 26, 2014 2:41:59 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 551
Location: Nairobi
"The breakout of the U.S. Dollar/Shilling over the 88 level was right on time. We'll need to watch the week of 20th November, 2014 for a turning point. It seems volatility will rise as we head to November...."

Read more:

http://www.scribd.com/do...37749736/Kenya-Shilling

hisah
#4338 Posted : Wednesday, August 27, 2014 1:43:34 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
karanjakinuthia wrote:
"The breakout of the U.S. Dollar/Shilling over the 88 level was right on time. We'll need to watch the week of 20th November, 2014 for a turning point. It seems volatility will rise as we head to November...."

Read more:

http://www.scribd.com/do...37749736/Kenya-Shilling


The likelihood of testing 120 as per the longterm channel gives me the chills Sad That move will throw a nasty curve ball at KE equities.

An expensive USD period is coming due to a likely rate hike by the fed, which will catch many offguard!
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
whiteowl
#4339 Posted : Wednesday, August 27, 2014 7:28:27 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/16/2014
Posts: 1,420
Location: Bohemian Grove
hisah wrote:
karanjakinuthia wrote:
"The breakout of the U.S. Dollar/Shilling over the 88 level was right on time. We'll need to watch the week of 20th November, 2014 for a turning point. It seems volatility will rise as we head to November...."

Read more:

http://www.scribd.com/do...37749736/Kenya-Shilling


The likelihood of testing 120 as per the longterm channel gives me the chills Sad That move will throw a nasty curve ball at KE equities.

An expensive USD period is coming due to a likely rate hike by the fed, which will catch many offguard!

it seems I need lots of dollars n euros under my mattress
murchr
#4340 Posted : Thursday, August 28, 2014 3:13:36 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
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