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UCHUMI ANNUAL RESULTS
mukiha
#1 Posted : Wednesday, December 30, 2009 5:23:16 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/27/2008
Posts: 4,114


Jun-08 Jun-09 Change
Sh - Mill Sh - Mill %
Turnover 6,792 8,323 23
Op. profit 275 330 20
PBT 106 170 60
PAT 95 421 343
EPS 0.53 2.34 342





Nothing is real unless it can be named; nothing has value unless it can be sold; money is worthless unless you spend it.
mukiha
#2 Posted : Wednesday, December 30, 2009 5:25:48 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/27/2008
Posts: 4,114
Ugh!!!!

So how do I post a table from MS-Excel or MS-Word?
Nothing is real unless it can be named; nothing has value unless it can be sold; money is worthless unless you spend it.
mukiha
#3 Posted : Wednesday, December 30, 2009 5:37:43 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/27/2008
Posts: 4,114
....any way; there is still the small matter of the one billion shilling NEGATIVE reserve sitting in the balance sheet...

If the term loans and debentures are converted into ordinary shares, there might be hope for this company...that's the financing side of the equation...

On the business front, I hope the management will do some cleaning up of the company's image. Most the branches have started looking dingy and in that shape they cannot compete with Tuskys and Nakumatt.

Thus I am happy to see that the receivers have put into gear their exit plans...then the company can revert back to some business minded directors....hopefully.

So; where did this Ciano guy come from? And how does he pronounce his name - "Chiano" or "Siano"?
Nothing is real unless it can be named; nothing has value unless it can be sold; money is worthless unless you spend it.
VituVingiSana
#4 Posted : Wednesday, December 30, 2009 6:00:08 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,224
Location: Nairobi
Ciano was at KPLC just prior to becoming receiver/ceo at Uchumi
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
mukiha
#5 Posted : Wednesday, December 30, 2009 6:45:28 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/27/2008
Posts: 4,114
@VVS; I know he was at KPLC, what I meant was: where was he when Uchumi was going down the drain?
Nothing is real unless it can be named; nothing has value unless it can be sold; money is worthless unless you spend it.
VituVingiSana
#6 Posted : Wednesday, December 30, 2009 6:56:19 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,224
Location: Nairobi
@mukiha - Maybe I misunderstood your question...

I have no idea where he was prior to KPLC.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
muganda
#7 Posted : Wednesday, December 30, 2009 6:59:17 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/15/2006
Posts: 3,906
Don't want to rain on the parade...
I got stuck with some Uchumi shares and I shop at Uchumi [generally try to own shares for companies I patronise].

But it's getting very very difficult. The supermarkets are like markets, aisles divided into two, floors not very clean, save maybe for Uchumi Langata. Then we know Receivers in Kenya, do they ever give up their job? And their solidly in their no3 position from no1 - was surprised to learn Nakumatt never reported a profit until their collapse.

Okay at least their now operating positively but if shares were trading now, would you buy this share? That's the test.
Gordon Gekko
#8 Posted : Wednesday, December 30, 2009 7:24:23 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 5/27/2008
Posts: 3,760
So when are they getting listed so I can dump my shares? What are the chances of trading at my average purchase price of Ksh 18?
mukiha
#9 Posted : Wednesday, December 30, 2009 7:33:32 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/27/2008
Posts: 4,114
@Gordon Gekko;
most likely re-listing in first half of 2010.

Sh18....is possible...translates to a P/E of 7.7 which isn't bad for a company that has been in the cold all these years.

But when you remove the sh250m tax credit, the EPS drops to sh0.94 and the P/E at sh18 now becomes 19....very high for this market, let alone Uchumi!

My guess is that you will probably get buyers at sh10
Nothing is real unless it can be named; nothing has value unless it can be sold; money is worthless unless you spend it.
VituVingiSana
#10 Posted : Wednesday, December 30, 2009 8:03:37 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,224
Location: Nairobi
Uchumi needs cash before it can make changes.

It needs a strategic investor with cash + connections (suppliers, etc) + experience.

Perhaps a smaller retailer like ukwala or naivas might want to buy them out?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Intelligentsia
#11 Posted : Wednesday, December 30, 2009 8:06:35 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/1/2009
Posts: 2,436
A company being placed under receivership in Kenya is akin to pronouncing its death-sentence. Look around the carcasses littering the kenyan corporate landscape and you begin to appreciate this perception. Far too many companies have failed to recover from the receiver's scapel as the 'radical surgery' tries to rid it of its corporate fat, streamline and re-engineer its operations to yank it from red ink. Recovery rate is dismally low, because most receivers are only interested in their monthly emoluments which are astronomical and actually end up haemorrhaging the company that is at that moment still in ICU. Plus they must also be paid whether or not the co. is profitable, and asset-stripping is common to pay off 'lenders/ debenture-holders.'

That Uchumi may emerge from receivership will therefore be a milestone not very common on the kenya corporate landscape. Of course it helps your cause if the govt of the day is on your side. Mukiha, u r right: the debt-to-equity conversion will be the company's lifeline, as will be improving the ambience and appeal of their stores. Uchumi back to black ink, re-listed and grossing profits would be a big coup for Ciano.
BTW, why shouldn't he come back to Uchumi now wearing the CEO cap - after all he's proved very instrumental in the company's turnaround and this shows he is sufficiently business-minded and able to deal with the numerous stakeholders (suppliers, general creditors, lenders, govt, customers,etc)efficiently?
VituVingiSana
#12 Posted : Wednesday, December 30, 2009 8:06:55 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,224
Location: Nairobi
@veteran - I would say 2nd half of 2010 at earliest.

The price can't be judged on EPS/PE alone but buyer can take advantage of someone dumping the shares...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Much Know
#13 Posted : Wednesday, December 30, 2009 1:13:02 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/6/2008
Posts: 3,554
If this Ciano is running a dirty market-like supermarket, what good is he? Uchumi was brought down by plain robbery. Uchumi needs much better management than we are seeing now. In my opinion if this chain continues under govt interference it will imminently collapse. Sell your shares at whatever you get.
Meru Holiness
sparkly
#14 Posted : Wednesday, December 30, 2009 6:55:33 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
Surprised that uchumi never learns! Company is already planning to open branches in rwanda and TZ! Isn't it wiser to try recapture market share in kenya since all is not so well with the compe (read nakumatt)?
Life is short. Live passionately.
Layman
#15 Posted : Thursday, December 31, 2009 5:37:19 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/21/2006
Posts: 422
Location: Nairobi
sparkly wrote:
Surprised that uchumi never learns! Company is already planning to open branches in rwanda and TZ! Isn't it wiser to try recapture market share in kenya since all is not so well with the compe (read nakumatt)?


Uchumi supermarkets are the dirtiest shops to ever walk in. Visit Jogoo Rd, Agakan Walk, Meru branch etc and you will think they are big "kiosks", very filthy, dirty, goods thrown all over.............. in fact the only uchumi worth the name is the one on Langata road and Capital Centre on mombasa road. Seriously, ukwala shops were once the dirtiest but they are now much better than these Ciano Kiosks. Ole wao shareholders!
the sage
#16 Posted : Thursday, December 31, 2009 6:42:37 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 11/20/2008
Posts: 367

Good people, this Ciano guy was brought in because his forte is bailing out nearly defunct entities. In fact he was brought from Shell Bahamas or was it Bermuda (somewhere in the Caribbean). So he knows his stuff but I agree with intelligentsia, the debt is just bleeding the books too much.

They also have to strategize, one way and they should pay me for this, is to allow you to shop online. A catalogue with all products should be made available online, then allow payment via MPesa.

They should then do deliveries to either your house of office and be reasonably priced. Believe me it would create new revenue streams. But they have to price it right. Imagine doing all your shopping as you work and collect the goods from reception as you leave the office.

Posta’s future lies in a similar strategy. Ask and I will explain.

VituVingiSana
#17 Posted : Thursday, December 31, 2009 7:26:40 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,224
Location: Nairobi
Ciano was working from a tough script.

- No cash (cleaned out by kirubi & his cronies)
- Low stocks (suppliers refused to deliver goods)
- Pathetic stores (old & let to decay by kirubi & co)
- Low morale (employees did not care coz they were a few days from losing their jobs)

Ciano amejaribu...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Gordon Gekko
#18 Posted : Monday, January 04, 2010 10:14:44 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 5/27/2008
Posts: 3,760
@the sage, IMO, I don't think on line shopping will be a killer move. I am a average income guy, wife and two kids type for whom shopping at Uchumi is an outing for the family. I suspect most of the shoppers at Uchumi are the same....
VituVingiSana
#19 Posted : Monday, January 04, 2010 10:27:58 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,224
Location: Nairobi
@GG @ sage - Delivery costs? I doubt the margins that Uchumi has allows for free delivery... so how many Kenyans can afford to pay for delivery...

That said... look at Amazon... someone has to take the first step!

BTW, the mama mbogas are sorta the 'shop at home' vendors!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Gordon Gekko
#20 Posted : Monday, January 04, 2010 1:01:54 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 5/27/2008
Posts: 3,760
Actually @VVS, I seem to remember that they tried the home delivery concept at the Nairobi West Branch. Since they don't talk about it any more, it must have died.
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