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CIC Rights Issue
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Wondergirl
#41 Posted : Wednesday, July 16, 2014 11:19:45 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/12/2009
Posts: 312
hisah wrote:
@Boris - I'm still amazed that 9/- was sliced from the 6/- breakout and the rally almost went to 13?! I was expecting a sizable correction back to 8.50-9 level after that furious rally topped out. Seems the correction has settled at 9.50-10 zone. At this price bonus dilution will see prices settle around 7.50-8 zone. But bulls might try to head back to 10 post bonus dilution. Support is still 6/- zone.

@ Hisah,
What would be the fair price for CIC after bonus have been loaded?
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jawgey
#42 Posted : Wednesday, July 16, 2014 11:55:28 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/13/2014
Posts: 386
Location: Denmark
I have never traded a stock immediately after book closure for bonus. I need someone to tell me if I traded my shares on 1st August (books closure is on 31st July) do I have any guarantee that my bonus will reflect once cdsc posts them out to shareholders.. If not I definitely have the right to complain, right?
Seeing is believing
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hisah
#43 Posted : Wednesday, July 16, 2014 11:57:06 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Wondergirl wrote:
hisah wrote:
@Boris - I'm still amazed that 9/- was sliced from the 6/- breakout and the rally almost went to 13?! I was expecting a sizable correction back to 8.50-9 level after that furious rally topped out. Seems the correction has settled at 9.50-10 zone. At this price bonus dilution will see prices settle around 7.50-8 zone. But bulls might try to head back to 10 post bonus dilution. Support is still 6/- zone.

@ Hisah,
What would be the fair price for CIC after bonus have been loaded?

With or without bonus loaded its trading at an expensive PER (P/E) of 16.34. Actually its the most expensive of all the insurance counters with britam being the 2nd most and least expensive being Kenya RE.

CIC post bonus may settle 8/- range. But fair value is around 6/- where strong support coincidentally lies.

As it currently appears on a historical PER basis.

CIC - 16.34
BRIT - 15.00
JUB - 10.71
PAFR - 9.81
CFCI - 8.33
KNRE - 4.38

The historical PER average of the 6 is at a steep 10.76 for the insurance sector.

On forward PER basis, CIC, BRIT and JUB need to beat the street significantly to deflate the high PER and sustain their high prices. Also note with a sluggish econ (like 2014) profits get squeezed. A number of insurance firms are invested in NSE20 which has been sideways (slightly negative) for 9 months since Nov 2013. Their equities income will be flat or negative depending on what is in their portfolios.

P/B values also paint CIC and PAFR as expensive with values above 2.00 and forward P/B still likely to remain above 2.00 in 2014.

For a long term perspective KE insurance still has legs to expand considering the likes of SA and Namibia have an insurance penetration of 14.6% and 8% respectively. KE insurance penetration is a measly 3%.

So if hunting for value Kenya RE and CFCI are in the discount corner. The rest are fully priced for the year IMO.

$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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hisah
#44 Posted : Wednesday, July 16, 2014 12:06:26 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
jawgey wrote:
I have never traded a stock immediately after book closure for bonus. I need someone to tell me if I traded my shares on 1st August (books closure is on 31st July) do I have any guarantee that my bonus will reflect once cdsc posts them out to shareholders.. If not I definitely have the right to complain, right?

As long as you were still holding them on dday. Selling after dday won't make you miss out on getting your bonus loot smile
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Tall Order
#45 Posted : Wednesday, July 16, 2014 1:00:15 PM
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Joined: 5/9/2014
Posts: 130
Location: Nairobi
Thanks @hisah for the clarification and I like the comment 'bonus loot'
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wannaberich
#46 Posted : Wednesday, July 16, 2014 1:09:12 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 4/24/2014
Posts: 159
Location: Nairobi
hisah wrote:
jawgey wrote:
I have never traded a stock immediately after book closure for bonus. I need someone to tell me if I traded my shares on 1st August (books closure is on 31st July) do I have any guarantee that my bonus will reflect once cdsc posts them out to shareholders.. If not I definitely have the right to complain, right?

As long as you were still holding them on dday. Selling after dday won't make you miss out on getting your bonus loot smile


So to sell immediately after booksclosure is advicable yes?d'oh!
Money comes and goes. When you have it enjoy it.
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icecube
#47 Posted : Wednesday, July 16, 2014 1:35:42 PM
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Joined: 1/2/2008
Posts: 268
Location: Nairobi
Tall Order wrote:
Thanks @hisah for the clarification and I like the comment 'bonus loot'


Is bonus a loot?
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hisah
#48 Posted : Wednesday, July 16, 2014 1:47:52 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
wannaberich wrote:
hisah wrote:
jawgey wrote:
I have never traded a stock immediately after book closure for bonus. I need someone to tell me if I traded my shares on 1st August (books closure is on 31st July) do I have any guarantee that my bonus will reflect once cdsc posts them out to shareholders.. If not I definitely have the right to complain, right?

As long as you were still holding them on dday. Selling after dday won't make you miss out on getting your bonus loot smile


So to sell immediately after booksclosure is advicable yes?d'oh!

That depends on your goals. If for speculation and you got in at a lower entry you can cash out to grab your gains.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Cardinal
#49 Posted : Wednesday, July 16, 2014 1:58:51 PM
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Joined: 5/12/2009
Posts: 266
@all

whats the best stock to buy now(less than 20bob) and lets say hold for sometime..
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Wondergirl
#50 Posted : Wednesday, July 16, 2014 2:29:34 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/12/2009
Posts: 312
hisah wrote:
Wondergirl wrote:
hisah wrote:
@Boris - I'm still amazed that 9/- was sliced from the 6/- breakout and the rally almost went to 13?! I was expecting a sizable correction back to 8.50-9 level after that furious rally topped out. Seems the correction has settled at 9.50-10 zone. At this price bonus dilution will see prices settle around 7.50-8 zone. But bulls might try to head back to 10 post bonus dilution. Support is still 6/- zone.

@ Hisah,
What would be the fair price for CIC after bonus have been loaded?

With or without bonus loaded its trading at an expensive PER (P/E) of 16.34. Actually its the most expensive of all the insurance counters with britam being the 2nd most and least expensive being Kenya RE.

CIC post bonus may settle 8/- range. But fair value is around 6/- where strong support coincidentally lies.

As it currently appears on a historical PER basis.

CIC - 16.34
BRIT - 15.00
JUB - 10.71
PAFR - 9.81
CFCI - 8.33
KNRE - 4.38

The historical PER average of the 6 is at a steep 10.76 for the insurance sector.

On forward PER basis, CIC, BRIT and JUB need to beat the street significantly to deflate the high PER and sustain their high prices. Also note with a sluggish econ (like 2014) profits get squeezed. A number of insurance firms are invested in NSE20 which has been sideways (slightly negative) for 9 months since Nov 2013. Their equities income will be flat or negative depending on what is in their portfolios.

P/B values also paint CIC and PAFR as expensive with values above 2.00 and forward P/B still likely to remain above 2.00 in 2014.

For a long term perspective KE insurance still has legs to expand considering the likes of SA and Namibia have an insurance penetration of 14.6% and 8% respectively. KE insurance penetration is a measly 3%.

So if hunting for value Kenya RE and CFCI are in the discount corner. The rest are fully priced for the year IMO.


Wow!@Hisah,
Thats some answer, when i grow up in stocks, I want be @Hisah.
One last lesson for the day: How do they determine the price @ which they load the bonus?
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hisah
#51 Posted : Wednesday, July 16, 2014 3:24:01 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
@wondergirl - bonus ratio is 1:5 (20% dilution).
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Aguytrying
#52 Posted : Wednesday, July 16, 2014 4:10:07 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
hisah wrote:
@wondergirl - bonus ratio is 1:5 (20% dilution).


And your new entry price after the bonus is cost of buying the shares/ new numbe of shares
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Wondergirl
#53 Posted : Wednesday, July 16, 2014 4:16:49 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/12/2009
Posts: 312
Aguytrying wrote:
hisah wrote:
@wondergirl - bonus ratio is 1:5 (20% dilution).


And your new entry price after the bonus is cost of buying the shares/ new numbe of shares

@ Agutrying,
okay , thanks,
What about the price with wish the new shares will trade in the stockmarket ones they are uploaded(bu the way when do they upload them?, I have noticed they(bonus/splits/ rights) always make the price go down significantly.
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jawgey
#54 Posted : Wednesday, July 16, 2014 5:21:22 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/13/2014
Posts: 386
Location: Denmark
Wondergirl wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
hisah wrote:
@wondergirl - bonus ratio is 1:5 (20% dilution).


And your new entry price after the bonus is cost of buying the shares/ new numbe of shares

@ Agutrying,
okay , thanks,
What about the price with wish the new shares will trade in the stockmarket ones they are uploaded(bu the way when do they upload them?, I have noticed they(bonus/splits/ rights) always make the price go down significantly.


bonus=additional shares. they trade as normal shares once uploaded. Note bonus is different from rights. You can exercise your right I.e. buy them during the offer period or sell them. If you exercise your rights they trade as normal shares after the offer period and subsequent uploading.
Seeing is believing
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Boris Boyka
#55 Posted : Wednesday, July 16, 2014 9:48:25 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/15/2013
Posts: 1,977
Location: Here
@cardinal wee ni "kamzee" hapa spend some MB's ; check in stocks there're sooo many threads with supported recommendations if you had gone through you couldn't ask this question. Knowledge is power Information is wealth. Read a lot from the topics understand & make personal decision. @Wondergirl go through the comments on this thread (tumia MB's) then take a pen & paper take notes & make calculations utaelewa.
let the shares you have = A
let money you invested= B
price per share. =B/A
bonus shares. = 1/5 X(A) which =A/5
total shares after bonus = A/5 + A
New price per share after bonus =(A/5 + A ) divided by B .
Books close 2359hrs 30 July and 00:01 01 Aug you will be in register for bonus shares. You could sell A easily as they're readily available but A/5 may take time to reflect in CDS so wait. ppl buy into stocks to secure bonuses dividends capital growth e.t.c after announcement of good financial results ; this demand pushes prices up after the benefits are awarded to shareholders few ppl demand (want to buy) the stocks while many want to sell thus price drops. leyman . tumia Google pia
Everybody STEALS, a THIEF is one who's CAUGHT stealing something of LITTLE VALUE. !!!
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Boris Boyka
#56 Posted : Monday, July 28, 2014 8:14:00 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/15/2013
Posts: 1,977
Location: Here
A 5 Birrion Bond in Aug/Sep www.businessdailyafrica....2/-/10kcmes/-/index.html
Everybody STEALS, a THIEF is one who's CAUGHT stealing something of LITTLE VALUE. !!!
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hisah
#57 Posted : Thursday, July 31, 2014 12:12:20 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Exbonus and price is readjusting at the moment with VWAP around 19.4% down. Expected when you factor the 20% (1:5) bonus dilution.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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josimar
#58 Posted : Friday, August 01, 2014 1:46:52 PM
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Joined: 7/6/2010
Posts: 242
This stock price is on a downward spiral ,should we still expect it to continue shifting downwards ?
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Tall Order
#59 Posted : Friday, August 01, 2014 2:13:50 PM
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Joined: 5/9/2014
Posts: 130
Location: Nairobi
I'm also waiting for it at 7.50 hopefully I can get some of these next week.
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Boris Boyka
#60 Posted : Friday, August 01, 2014 2:27:40 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/15/2013
Posts: 1,977
Location: Here
josimar wrote:
This stock price is on a downward spiral ,should we still expect it to continue shifting downwards ?

Trading ex bonus this is expected. usichagae, sisi tuko hapa ndani ya bus,tunapiga lap (7.0-8.0) tukibeba.
Everybody STEALS, a THIEF is one who's CAUGHT stealing something of LITTLE VALUE. !!!
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