The Stock Market Has Been Predicting Russian Crises Since 1857

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Negative social mood is also associated with rise in epidemics. Think Ebola virus now.
Also remember that bad flu was worse at a time when the stock market was in a bear trend. (The worldwide measure for social mood is the US stock market.)

As always, i do follow this thread and the forex one silently..
and i must appreciate your persistent advice.

Apart from holding on to dollars (and trying to get more). where/how else can we profit? will banks benefit (we buy their shares?)

Any foreseeable timelines for this? In a month? 2 months?

Hi @pound. Thanks.

Let me state though that I am a technical guy (using Elliott) and advice about about holding onto cash and any other information on depression I get from Prechter's book Conquer The Crash, Austrian Economics as well as the socionomics institute website www.socionomics.net

In a nutshell the stock market should drop tremendously within this year. This month (august) to October will be very key but in all 2014 is the start of the bear market that should bottom at about 2016. This insights come from Elliott Wave Analysis as well as Fibonacci time series. If you read Prechter's latest Elliott Theorist you will be amazed. You can access it from www.elliottwave.com by paying $1 for two weeks trial period.

For NSE, in my estimation, the index should move to about 5200-5300 before falling. By end of August the top should be in place, then the fall starts.

The KesUSD appears to have a long way to go. Past 120 as @hisah has always stated which seem supported by Elliott waves.

All in all, this year and next require alot of discernment in making investments esp financial ones e.g in buying shares etc.

If interest rates in Money Markets continue higher (as is expected) then you can buy the short term ones.

In a depression banks are usually hard hit. This is because of a crisis in confidence leading to bank runs. Be careful with a bank which is over-leveraged i.e too much loans and esp if NPL continue to rise.

Prechter says that if you deposit money in a bank, you have in effect 'loaned' the bank money. The bank is allowed to use the money to generate more money (profits) which is shared with you as interest on your deposit. If the bank cannot recover the money it has lent out then you have no claim!

There's alot more insights from Prechter and Austrian Economics.

You can go to youtube and search for mises.org for insightful videos.

Also free e-books: The Law by Fredrick Bastiat, Economics In One Lesson by Henry Hazzlitt etc etc.

Depression: Their Cause And Cure by Marie N Rothbard



AudioBook

So the Shilling is over-valued? Very interesting considering that it is about to lose more ground.


BD link

Yep. Financial muscle required.

For the econ report readers, I wonder how many read this IMF KE Nov 2013 report - http://tinyurl.com/pu87w22

Some highlights
pg 24 - BoP table item Income (net) 2016/17 estimates projected at a positive KES 144.2B
pg 24 - BoP table item Financial account private, KQ financing will dip to 106.2B in 2016/17 while energy financing is expected to reach 144.4B by then. So KQ is expected to become stable around 2016/17 while energy financing (power + oil) will continue fed with funds.

Pg 31 - Letter of intent contents

I didn't know that NSE demutualization was part of the IMF ECF (Extended credit facility) arrangement back in 2011 when KES was collapsing

VAT amendment was expected to spike inflation and the treasury officials expected it to fall back in early 2014. But we all know that was just another one of those... by IMF proposals. Now inflation is above CBK's target. How long will they wait till they hike CBR? And hike CBR in an econ that is facing a slump!? Pumping liquidity is the easiest way out of the slump, but that will add fuel to the inflation spike. The dilemma...

DJIA was down 2.75% for the week, erasing the ENTIRE gain for 2014

DETAILED ANALYTICS

Working Long Term Chart of the NSE 20 Share Index:


Wave B is from March 2009 and subdivides into Waves [a], ..[ .b] and [c].

The target top is calculated as follows:
1. Length of wave A = (6161.46 - 2360.01) = 3801.45 points
0.786 X wave A = wave B
Therefore: 0.786 X 3801.45 = 2987.94 points
Add 2987.94 points to Wave A bottom to get the end of wave B:

2987.94 + 2360.01 = 5347.95

2. The Widest Height of the triangle added to wave [ .e] bottom gives a target for final wave.
Wave [ .b], in our case, is the widest (tallest) and therefore:
(5137.21 - 4561.74) = 575.47 points

Wave [e] bottom at 4863.87 + 575.47 = 5439.34

3.

Wave [a] length = ( 4701.15 - 2360.01 ) = 2341.14
For Wave [a] = Wave [c] ( a common wave relationship) then we add the length of wave [ .a] to bottom of wave [ .b] to get the top of wave [c] (and also wave B).

Therefore: (2341.14 + 3070.36) = 5411.5

AND THUS THE TARGETED RANGE >> 5340 - 5440 POINTS FOR NSE 20 SHARE INDEX.