Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,121 Location: Nairobi
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Tall Order wrote:I don't think they would mishandle the refunds should need be especially as they are expected to lead by example otherwise investor confidence would be shattered. When has that ever stopped the CMA or NSE from screwing us over? Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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muganda wrote:Herewith the digital prospectus for NSE IPO  Offer pice 9.50 Offer closes 12-Aug-14 Results announced 03-Sep Commencment of trading 09-Sep NAV 5.68Trailing P/E 4.66Dividend payout ratio 18.6% Market Capitalisation 1.2bn Here they are using 128 Million shares for the calculation. This will change to 194 Million after listing. This will mislead some, coz dilution will happen after the IPO and the Fundamentals wont be as rosy as painted here. Refer to post #78 for metrics using 194 Million shares. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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This Ipo will bring back the confidence of IPO's wait and see. I wont be left out of this one. It will be oversubscribed and rally hard after that. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,121 Location: Nairobi
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From the Streets of Twitter and additional research: If NSE made 60mn through 30 April 2014 then on a linear basis equates to 180mn for FY 2014. If NSE made 262mn in FY 2013 (including 120mn PBT from non-recurring a bad debt write-back). Is there a likelihood that as @Sang252 indicated there may be a profit warning like LKL, HAFR and BRTM soon after the Listing? Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 4/12/2014 Posts: 56
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I think I will buy then flip. Britam and LKL have rallied after some time. I can buy later when it is fairly valued or undervalued.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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VituVingiSana wrote:From the Streets of Twitter and additional research:
If NSE made 60mn through 30 April 2014 then on a linear basis equates to 180mn for FY 2014.
If NSE made 262mn in FY 2013 (including 120mn PBT from non-recurring a bad debt write-back).
Is there a likelihood that as @Sang252 indicated there may be a profit warning like LKL, HAFR and BRTM soon after the Listing? YES. And I expect it too.
@mweke also pointed this out in this thread on post 86
If it rallies off the blocks I expect it tank like HAFR, BRIT and LKL.
IPOs sold after sizable profit gains are always a value trap.
@muganda's post 81
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/15/2006 Posts: 3,905
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hisah wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:From the Streets of Twitter and additional research:
If NSE made 60mn through 30 April 2014 then on a linear basis equates to 180mn for FY 2014.
If NSE made 262mn in FY 2013 (including 120mn PBT from non-recurring a bad debt write-back).
Is there a likelihood that as @Sang252 indicated there may be a profit warning like LKL, HAFR and BRTM soon after the Listing? YES. And I expect it too.
@mweke also pointed this out in this thread on post 86
If it rallies off the blocks I expect it tank like HAFR, BRIT and LKL.
IPOs sold after sizable profit gains are always a value trap.
@muganda's post 81
Well said @hisah @VVS, they will technically need a profit warning; but with some clever machinations they could avoid the embarrassment  Estimate FY 2014Total Income flat (no market access fee) Admin Expenses +10% (run rate) Other Expenses +35% (IPO fees) *Provisions adverse (no gain from recovery) Profit before tax -35% Profit after tax -23% *EPS after dilution -50% To improve situation, they'd could write back remaining part of doubtful debt, but EPS would still decline say 20%.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/21/2006 Posts: 1,590
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So its a speculative play? But who will be left holding ze monkey? Sehemu ndio nyumba
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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The profit warning will be huko January 2015 onwards, if they'll be one. What of the lofty valuations they are peddling using 128M shares!! she should at least included valuations assuming full subscription. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Aguytrying wrote:The profit warning will be huko January 2015 onwards, if they'll be one.
What of the lofty valuations they are peddling using 128M shares!! she should at least included valuations assuming full subscription. So we in agreement that a profit warning is coming. So why waste your funds on it?$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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hisah wrote:Aguytrying wrote:The profit warning will be huko January 2015 onwards, if they'll be one.
What of the lofty valuations they are peddling using 128M shares!! she should at least included valuations assuming full subscription. So we in agreement that a profit warning is coming. So why waste your funds on it? I think I can flip it. And i need a win to close the year. I know how it sounds like The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Aguytrying wrote:hisah wrote:Aguytrying wrote:The profit warning will be huko January 2015 onwards, if they'll be one.
What of the lofty valuations they are peddling using 128M shares!! she should at least included valuations assuming full subscription. So we in agreement that a profit warning is coming. So why waste your funds on it? I think I can flip it. And i need a win to close the year. I know how it sounds like Sawa. All the best
Remember there's no luck in trading...$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Member Joined: 5/14/2014 Posts: 288 Location: nairobi
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Why is NSE listing in the first place?. It very difficult for wanjiku seated on one end of the table to outsmart professionals seated on the other end of the table I find satisfaction in owning great business,not trading them
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2008 Posts: 4,449
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hisah wrote:Aguytrying wrote:hisah wrote:Aguytrying wrote:The profit warning will be huko January 2015 onwards, if they'll be one.
What of the lofty valuations they are peddling using 128M shares!! she should at least included valuations assuming full subscription. So we in agreement that a profit warning is coming. So why waste your funds on it? I think I can flip it. And i need a win to close the year. I know how it sounds like Sawa. All the best
Remember there's no luck in trading... @hisah, what are you buying now?
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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ecstacy wrote:hisah wrote:Aguytrying wrote:hisah wrote:Aguytrying wrote:The profit warning will be huko January 2015 onwards, if they'll be one.
What of the lofty valuations they are peddling using 128M shares!! she should at least included valuations assuming full subscription. So we in agreement that a profit warning is coming. So why waste your funds on it? I think I can flip it. And i need a win to close the year. I know how it sounds like Sawa. All the best
Remember there's no luck in trading... @hisah, what are you buying now? Only bought some KPLC. But I have paused waiting for the KE macros to become clear. At the moment a lot of ground shifting is happening on the econ.
But looking fwd to build a power portfolio i.e. kplc, kengen, keno, cables etc.
Also like TPS and the current murdered sugar. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2008 Posts: 4,449
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hisah wrote:ecstacy wrote:hisah wrote:Aguytrying wrote:hisah wrote:Aguytrying wrote:The profit warning will be huko January 2015 onwards, if they'll be one.
What of the lofty valuations they are peddling using 128M shares!! she should at least included valuations assuming full subscription. So we in agreement that a profit warning is coming. So why waste your funds on it? I think I can flip it. And i need a win to close the year. I know how it sounds like Sawa. All the best
Remember there's no luck in trading... @hisah, what are you buying now? Only bought some KPLC. But I have paused waiting for the KE macros to become clear. At the moment a lot of ground shifting is happening on the econ.
But looking fwd to build a power portfolio i.e. kplc, kengen, keno, cables etc.
Also like TPS and the current murdered sugar. Any timelines to these actions?
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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@ecstacy - no timelines yet since I don't run treasury or gok to know when the cloud clears. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/9/2006 Posts: 52 Location: USA
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Hi everyone, Lots of good points raised. I'm generally skeptical of IPOs, but this looks like it may offer some long-term value to individual investors. I just posted my quick valuation exercise for the IPO here. Is the NSE IPO a Bargain?Many thanks, and I greatly value your feedback! Ryan
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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hooverrl wrote:Hi everyone, Lots of good points raised. I'm generally skeptical of IPOs, but this looks like it may offer some long-term value to individual investors. I just posted my quick valuation exercise for the IPO here. Is the NSE IPO a Bargain?Many thanks, and I greatly value your feedback! Ryan Good analysis. On the one off recovery of bad debt of Kes. 115M in year 2013, it looks like we set for another recovery in 2014 of the remaining Kes. 141M receivable from non-trading brokers. Or is this totally unrecoverable? @VVS? http://www.businessdailyafrica....2/-/p7rrrmz/-/index.html
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Rank: Member Joined: 5/8/2013 Posts: 386 Location: Nyali mombasa
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