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zero interest rate.
selah
#1 Posted : Thursday, December 17, 2009 7:37:57 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/13/2009
Posts: 1,950
Location: in kenya
The fed yesterday announced that they are slashing interest rate to zero.

In my humble opinion I think this is disaster waiting to happen.
During the aftermath of 9/11 the fed did the same thing they slashed the interest rate to about 1% to boost consumer lending and at the same time encourage consumerism.

most analyst associate the slashing of the interest rate at that time with the current financial melt down .whats your take on this?
'......to the acknowledgment of the mystery of God, and of the Father, and of Christ; 3 In whom are hid all the treasures of wisdom and knowledge.' Colossians 2:2-3
Scubidu
#2 Posted : Thursday, December 17, 2009 1:51:10 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
The price of money is at zero, so it's time to start listening to the contrarian experts Marc Faber, Jim Rogers, Peter Schiff, Karl Denninger. They tell you where this goes next. Our own interest rates are also diving downwards...where our rates such as the interbank rate at 1.98%. How much more is needed to stimulate the economy?
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
kizee
#3 Posted : Friday, December 18, 2009 3:35:31 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/9/2008
Posts: 537
@ scubidu

kes o/n rates are up...think we are north of 3 pct as of today...the time we hit 1.98 there was excess chumz chasin ifdb
Scubidu
#4 Posted : Monday, December 21, 2009 8:03:35 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
@Kizee. You quite right...whoops didn't have access to info at the time. But I'm excited my hunch on the 7th Dec injection came true as the reserve deficiency materialized.

@selah, check out this website http://cij.inspiriting.com/?p=657. It has an interesting perspective on the situation.
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
VituVingiSana
#5 Posted : Monday, December 21, 2009 4:22:27 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,361
Location: Nairobi
Interbank rates help me ZERO as a consumer. What GoK needs to do is push their borrowing rates down then 'force' banks to follow suit.

When I say 'force' not by diktat but other means at its disposal. GoK through its Bills/Bonds is crowding out the private sector.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
kizee
#6 Posted : Tuesday, December 22, 2009 6:02:31 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/9/2008
Posts: 537
VituVingiSana wrote:
Interbank rates help me ZERO as a consumer. What GoK needs to do is push their borrowing rates down then 'force' banks to follow suit.

When I say 'force' not by diktat but other means at its disposal. GoK through its Bills/Bonds is crowding out the private sector.


interbank rates may help u zero but they help many others including corporates who have money market lines with banks..infact many oil companies hav cashflow issues that they usually mitigate against by way of money market loans...
Scubidu
#7 Posted : Tuesday, December 22, 2009 6:56:38 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
I think since May 2009 CBK has tried to lower rates through the CBR reduction and by increasing reserves in the system (either through OMO injections or reduction in the reserve ratio). Banks are still not responding...maybe they should lower the liquidity ratio from the current 20% to make banks reduce their liquid assets (raise op. cost). Or maybe Govt should start spending more so that those deposits (Kshs70 bn) they have at Central Bank will enter the commercial banking system...banks will be very liquid then and forced to lower lending rates.
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
kizee
#8 Posted : Tuesday, December 22, 2009 7:25:59 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/9/2008
Posts: 537
crr reduction has an immediate effect on liquidity...it injects money from crr accounts to clearing accounts...crr if my basic econ doesnt fail me is a tool of controllin money supply in dec wen they cut crr by 50 bp it led to an 8 yd injection...overnite! hows that for a stimulus?
Scubidu
#9 Posted : Tuesday, December 22, 2009 11:05:00 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
It's a great stimulus...in 2008 they used the omo to alleviate the liquidity issues brought about by the Safcom IPO...used the regular repos and term auction facility for 4 months. In 2009 we're going into 8 months of injections which are highly correlated to public auctions.

Check out these links
http://www.econbrowser.c.../federal_reserve_2.html
http://www.zerohedge.com...intervention-techniques

Ive also been trying to read on basic econ/(banking) and the crr reduction can reduce the level of omo activity...the lowering of the crr like in July 09...enables the CBK to inject less money into the system but get more out of each injection in terms of meeting a desired target of deficit borrowing, as the multiplier effect on that money is higher (Money Multiplier=1/Reserve Requirement).

So if CBK didn't pump in reserves for the ifdb how wud the banks have been able to facilitate K18 bn in new borrowing. Check out the following link http://www.scribd.com/do...king-by-Murray-Rothbard . Read page 170 (page 195 on the pdf) of the doc. This is how i got the stuff above.
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
kizee
#10 Posted : Thursday, December 24, 2009 6:41:28 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/9/2008
Posts: 537
scubidu

u hav stated that cbk pumped in cash to enable purchase of ifdb..i agree with u...cbk are soo kind to us traders..they lend u on the short end so u can lend back to them on the long end at higher rates as in they let u arbitrage them and they havent a clue...
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