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KENOL-KOBIL 2014
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,194 Location: nairobi
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I guess those selling kk,have travelled with it since it was a private company or longtime ago.so at any price they still make huge gains. "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,349 Location: Nairobi
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muganda wrote:Fair point... what I'd like to know from @mlennyma, @aguytrying, mwekez@ji, @VVS, have the insiders stopped selling? And why sell in the first place? mlennyma wrote:If you respect the titles aguytrying..elder,mlennyma ...elder buy kk,there is minimal or no downside left. Supply seems to have dried up but who knows why the 'insiders' were selling... Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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VituVingiSana wrote:muganda wrote:Fair point... what I'd like to know from @mlennyma, @aguytrying, mwekez@ji, @VVS, have the insiders stopped selling? And why sell in the first place? mlennyma wrote:If you respect the titles aguytrying..elder,mlennyma ...elder buy kk,there is minimal or no downside left. Supply seems to have dried up but who knows why the 'insiders' were selling... the selling prompted me to look at shareholding changes between 2011 and 2013 annual reports. a 'chery holding ltd' that had 7.89%( 116m shares) sold out. of the top ten at least. also kk esop with 9m shares left top ten. nominee accounts at least 3 increased their shareholding between 20-10m shares increase. the top 3 remained unchanged. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/15/2013 Posts: 1,977 Location: Here
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mlennyma wrote:If you respect the titles aguytrying..elder,mlennyma ...elder buy kk,there is minimal or no downside left. ......mutation!!!! @Aguy am curious how does your portfolio look like seems we.share some and you have many we.don't ........=10 Everybody STEALS, a THIEF is one who's CAUGHT stealing something of LITTLE VALUE. !!!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,225 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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Aguytrying wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:muganda wrote:Fair point... what I'd like to know from @mlennyma, @aguytrying, mwekez@ji, @VVS, have the insiders stopped selling? And why sell in the first place? mlennyma wrote:If you respect the titles aguytrying..elder,mlennyma ...elder buy kk,there is minimal or no downside left. Supply seems to have dried up but who knows why the 'insiders' were selling... the selling prompted me to look at shareholding changes between 2011 and 2013 annual reports. a 'chery holding ltd' that had 7.89%( 116m shares) sold out. of the top ten at least. also kk esop with 9m shares left top ten. nominee accounts at least 3 increased their shareholding between 20-10m shares increase. the top 3 remained unchanged. Auckland bull's stake i presume? @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,349 Location: Nairobi
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:Aguytrying wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:muganda wrote:Fair point... what I'd like to know from @mlennyma, @aguytrying, mwekez@ji, @VVS, have the insiders stopped selling? And why sell in the first place? mlennyma wrote:If you respect the titles aguytrying..elder,mlennyma ...elder buy kk,there is minimal or no downside left. Supply seems to have dried up but who knows why the 'insiders' were selling... the selling prompted me to look at shareholding changes between 2011 and 2013 annual reports. a 'chery holding ltd' that had 7.89%( 116m shares) sold out. of the top ten at least. also kk esop with 9m shares left top ten. nominee accounts at least 3 increased their shareholding between 20-10m shares increase. the top 3 remained unchanged. Auckland bull's stake i presume? Chery would be a biwott connected entity. As for KK's ESOP, it might be Segman left but more likely there were new top 10 guys with more than 9mn shares [even if the ESOP doesn't sell it is no longer top 10]. Those nominees may be mutual funds. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/30/2007 Posts: 1,558 Location: Nairobi
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Price is quite low. .kk will be shortly announcing their half year results. Given their :
1. Staff rationalization
2. Loss of market share (read concentrating on non-core, more profitable lines)
3. Reducing debt burden significantly & possibly completely desecrating it by end of FY 2014 (seems a tad far fetched to me. I can see that they will reduce debt by about 50% max but completely seems too much. Either way, this should help beef up the bottom line)
Given the above, I reckon that there is value in this stock. I foretell a kes 1B or more in half year profits. With that! Stock prices should rise significantly.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/21/2006 Posts: 1,590
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That Puma walked away... Anyway, wacha tuone where it lands at half year. 2013 should have been the nadir, but fx and oil prices always seems to play havoc with its perfomance. Sehemu ndio nyumba
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,194 Location: nairobi
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When announcing the fy2013,they said they are optimistic and the year 2014 has started well,lets wait and see how well is well,but 1b would be too abitious,may be 7-800m "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/30/2007 Posts: 1,558 Location: Nairobi
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If they reduced their borrowings by even 50% (conservative from the optimism displayed by Ohana) then finance costs would drop by 400m-600m depending on interest rates at the time give or take. The rest lies within the "profitable business segment, relative stability of crude prices & USD to KES
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