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CBK reduces CBR rate
VituVingiSana
#21 Posted : Tuesday, December 15, 2009 11:16:47 AM
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@scubidu - Well... there is a disconnect between CBR & Overnight Rates... but that is not the issue here...

The issue is that you cannot tie long-term rates to CBR... They are very different species... They do not mate well...

OMO is used to regulate short-term rates. Sometime longer-term rates too. CBR & OMO often work hand in hand. Say Overnight is higher than CBR, then CBK 'buys' T-Bills to release cash into the market bringing down Overnight rates. Often done through Repos.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#22 Posted : Tuesday, December 15, 2009 11:19:44 AM
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@kizee - You can't use CBR to guide longer term rates. Typically the maturity is used.

T-Bills+Bonds are 'risk-free' so add onto that... Lending Rates should track their counterparts. A 5yr loan should track 5 year T-Bond rates.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
kizee
#23 Posted : Tuesday, December 15, 2009 11:24:49 AM
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t bill/bonds rate are market driven...the cbk cannot use theyre rates for purposes of signalling per se...agreed a 5 year lending shud be benchmarked against the 5 year bond rate...
Scubidu
#24 Posted : Tuesday, December 15, 2009 12:38:00 PM
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@kizee. From ur other post earlier. As I understand, b4 the lombard and lender-of-last-resort windows used to be quite similiar 4 except the limits set on amounts borrowed (as a % of capital) and the pegging of rates to T-bill. Do we really need two similiar windows? What would they be pegged on to make them more reliable? The initial idea behind merging them was what the CBK called "harmonization of cost of accomodation to banks"...don't know what that means though.

@VVS. I'm also interested in what the banks call the base rate (arbitrary term). Is there a connect between the cbr and base rate? I seem to remember base rates being adjusted mid last year while the cbr remained unchanged...or was that an inflation adjustment.
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
kizee
#25 Posted : Tuesday, December 15, 2009 1:21:00 PM
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the lombard rate was a euphimism for the term lender of last resort rate...i think cbk must clearly distinguish between the lombard rates and cbr rate becoz each achieves its own independent function..as i said it seems like the OMO(repo rates) have earned enuff respect from the market as a signalling rate as they act as an oportunity cost of sorts...maybe cbr and repo rates shud be closer?? i dunno im no economist...
VituVingiSana
#26 Posted : Tuesday, December 15, 2009 10:20:54 PM
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CBR & Base Rates... have little in common!

Kenyan banks do get away with high Base Rates... partly due to the oligopolistic nature of the business... but also the crowding out effect...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Scubidu
#27 Posted : Wednesday, December 16, 2009 11:49:22 AM
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@vvs. good points. very knowledgable.

@kizee. I found an interesting doc online & I think it could help you come up with ideas as to how to modify the current windows (if its possible). The link is http://research.stlouisfed.org/aggreg/ and you shud download the doc called "Understanding Open Market Operations" by M.A. Akhtar. I read it briefly. Check out page 35 on the doc (page 39 on pdf). I think this is an excellent source of teaching especially for universities.
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
VituVingiSana
#28 Posted : Wednesday, December 16, 2009 12:06:54 PM
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The US Fed stopped publishing M3. Due to the evolving nature of the financial system, the 'tracking' is getting harder. All this data but what does it really mean?

In Kenya, we have M-Pesa which works like an ALTERNATE banking system. And potent. CBK can track lending by a bank but can it track P2P loans via M-Pesa? Not with a reasonable degree of accuracy.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Scubidu
#29 Posted : Wednesday, December 16, 2009 2:11:42 PM
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Location: Nairobi
@VVS. Ya think it was a question of man-power, that they stopped M3? It takes a pretty long time for the CBK to publish its monthly reviews.

In some circles M1 is considered the most relevant; i.e., transaction accounts and money in circulation. At least within the Kenyan context M1 alone has registered considerable changes over time.

There are some folks that have suggested implementing a system that run over the internet, where all money is digital, a unique serial code (much like the serial numbers on paper notes). How safe would that be given our techonology and how practical (given internet penetration)...but it would be easier to track though.

Secondary lending by Mpesa is flexible but what if they remove the caps on transfer volumes...CBK would favour a system specifically designed to track everything and anything, right?
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
VituVingiSana
#30 Posted : Thursday, December 17, 2009 10:08:42 AM
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The M3 tracking I referred to was US Fed not CBK.

I am sure the CBK prefers a transfer mechanism that allows tracking.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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