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NIC Bank - Another profitable Rights coming up!
sparkly
#1 Posted : Monday, July 07, 2014 10:06:41 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
EGM to be held at KICC on 29th July to authorize a Rights issue.
Life is short. Live passionately.
icecube
#2 Posted : Monday, July 07, 2014 10:13:43 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/2/2008
Posts: 268
Location: Nairobi
sparkly wrote:
EGM to be held at KICC on 29th July to authorize a Rights issue.


Good info...but how is the share doing now? over/undervalued?
Aguytrying
#3 Posted : Monday, July 07, 2014 11:34:27 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
@sparkly. how did you make money last time? how can we play this one?
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
sparkly
#4 Posted : Monday, July 07, 2014 12:09:48 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
Aguytrying wrote:
@sparkly. how did you make money last time? how can we play this one?


Quite simple really. I took up my rights (and a very small additional allocation).

My average considering bonuses and the rights was 29.

Then i sold everything (except some odd lot of 93) at 53-60.

This time i am hoping the BR price will dip below 40. I will then buy, participate in the rights and wait to sell AR at any price above 60.
Life is short. Live passionately.
Mart_Consult
#5 Posted : Monday, July 07, 2014 1:33:23 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 11/7/2013
Posts: 127
Location: Nairobi, Kenya
@sparkly How may price dip to sub-40 if the it has been sustained at 58-60 levels for the year-to-date? Also, if it's the rights price, is it not priced at a weighted average over a period (3-6 months)...? Any possibility there of going sub-40?
I went into the (Ferry) industry knowing the same thing I knew with all other businesses I went into- Nothing. Then I built it from there. - Sheldon Adelson (Titans at the Table- Giants of Macau)
Aguytrying
#6 Posted : Monday, July 07, 2014 4:08:57 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
@sparkly. the price is unlikely to even go down! see how DTK rallied to 280. I'm for seeing a similar pattern here. may rally to 75 cum rights. then rights will be in short supply. and Will go for a premium.

Time to buy is now at 60.00. cum rights sell half at a profit. take up rights sell the other half towards dec at a higher price than 60.00

this is assuming not very dilutive rights like DTK
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
sparkly
#7 Posted : Monday, July 07, 2014 6:36:43 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
Aguytrying wrote:
@sparkly. the price is unlikely to even go down! see how DTK rallied to 280. I'm for seeing a similar pattern here. may rally to 75 cum rights. then rights will be in short supply. and Will go for a premium.

Time to buy is now at 60.00. cum rights sell half at a profit. take up rights sell the other half towards dec at a higher price than 60.00

this is assuming not very dilutive rights like DTK


@Aguy I have played NIC long enough to know that unlike DTB, the minority lack an apetite for the share. The share price has an habit of collapsing but trading very thin volumes.
Life is short. Live passionately.
Aguytrying
#8 Posted : Monday, July 07, 2014 6:41:27 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
sparkly wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
@sparkly. the price is unlikely to even go down! see how DTK rallied to 280. I'm for seeing a similar pattern here. may rally to 75 cum rights. then rights will be in short supply. and Will go for a premium.

Time to buy is now at 60.00. cum rights sell half at a profit. take up rights sell the other half towards dec at a higher price than 60.00

this is assuming not very dilutive rights like DTK


@Aguy I have played NIC long enough to know that unlike DTB, the minority lack an apetite for the share. The share price has an habit of collapsing but trading very thin volumes.


I guess it's true that investment in knowledge pays the best dividends. happy hunting
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
Aguytrying
#9 Posted : Thursday, July 10, 2014 4:28:34 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
After an afternoon brainstorming session I came up with the following predictions.

rights issue of 1 share for every 6 held.

rights price of 45.00 a 25% discount from average price of last 6 months of 60.00. (indeed even 1year!)

88-91 million shares to be issued. to raise 4.02bn kshs.

let's wait for 30th july to see where my elderly(ness) has reached.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
Pesa Nane
#10 Posted : Thursday, July 10, 2014 6:13:39 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 5/25/2012
Posts: 4,105
Location: 08c
sparkly wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
@sparkly. the price is unlikely to even go down! see how DTK rallied to 280. I'm for seeing a similar pattern here. may rally to 75 cum rights. then rights will be in short supply. and Will go for a premium.

Time to buy is now at 60.00. cum rights sell half at a profit. take up rights sell the other half towards dec at a higher price than 60.00

this is assuming not very dilutive rights like DTK


@Aguy I have played NIC long enough to know that unlike DTB, the minority lack an apetite for the share. The share price has an habit of collapsing but trading very thin volumes.

Stock liquidity will improve greatly. They have issued 54,298,415 shares in the concluded bonus issue and a further circa. 90,000,000 shares in the upcoming rights issue.
Pesa Nane plans to be shilingi when he grows up.
Pesa Nane
#11 Posted : Thursday, July 10, 2014 6:18:15 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 5/25/2012
Posts: 4,105
Location: 08c
icecube wrote:
sparkly wrote:
EGM to be held at KICC on 29th July to authorize a Rights issue.


Good info...but how is the share doing now? over/undervalued?


rich management wrote:

Well established Kenyan commercial bank....
relatively inexpensive, a low base Effect and NIC Bank is always talked of as a Potential Acquisition target.
Pesa Nane plans to be shilingi when he grows up.
Othelo
#12 Posted : Thursday, August 07, 2014 1:36:15 PM
Rank: User


Joined: 1/20/2014
Posts: 3,528
Did they announce the clear details of this rights? anybody...
Formal education will make you a living. Self-education will make you a fortune - Jim Rohn.
VituVingiSana
#13 Posted : Thursday, August 07, 2014 1:51:15 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,121
Location: Nairobi
Othelo wrote:
Did they announce the clear details of this rights? anybody...
No. The Ndegwas will first secure their position. Like they did last time. The minorities can go hang.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Tall Order
#14 Posted : Thursday, August 07, 2014 3:19:04 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/9/2014
Posts: 130
Location: Nairobi
Why is it shrouded in so much secrecy, what are they hiding, they held the AGM, why not announce the stuff we start planning for it, September is next month.
Gordon Gekko
#15 Posted : Thursday, August 07, 2014 3:19:21 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 5/27/2008
Posts: 3,760
VituVingiSana wrote:
Othelo wrote:
Did they announce the clear details of this rights? anybody...
No. The Ndegwas will first secure their position. Like they did last time. The minorities can go hang.

James Ndegwa when asked if the anchor shareholders will underwrite the issue to ensure success, he said that all the tough guys were on the brink of the maximum 25% allowed by CBK and couldn't give that assurance. He also said that he will consider a 50% uptake a success as there are many players fighting for investor cash, both inTier I (ordinary shares) and Tier II (bonds etc). I read this to mean that it have a very small discount and he won't take part.
Gordon Gekko
#16 Posted : Thursday, August 07, 2014 3:26:08 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 5/27/2008
Posts: 3,760
Tall Order wrote:
Why is it shrouded in so much secrecy, what are they hiding, they held the AGM, why not announce the stuff we start planning for it, September is next month.

He was asked why NIC doesn't take more than the suggested ksh 2b, Ndegwa said taking more will mean a lower return on shareholder funds, so they will take small bits as they have done previously. On the previous two times they have gone for 1:10. Payments in mid-October if all regulatory approvals received according to their timetable.
VituVingiSana
#17 Posted : Thursday, August 07, 2014 5:41:44 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,121
Location: Nairobi
Gordon Gekko wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Othelo wrote:
Did they announce the clear details of this rights? anybody...
No. The Ndegwas will first secure their position. Like they did last time. The minorities can go hang.

James Ndegwa when asked if the anchor shareholders will underwrite the issue to ensure success, he said that all the tough guys were on the brink of the maximum 25% allowed by CBK and couldn't give that assurance. He also said that he will consider a 50% uptake a success as there are many players fighting for investor cash, both inTier I (ordinary shares) and Tier II (bonds etc). I read this to mean that it have a very small discount and he won't take part.
Hold on. What I heard was that the anchor shareholders aka James & Family will take up ALL their Rights. The issue last time was that they took up more of the UNTAKEN RIGHTS than they let on initially. There was an initial announcement sent to the CMA showing The Family now owned 24.9% but the next day they published one where the allocation to The Family was such that the shareholding was now 25%. That 0.1% is significant since it comprised primarily of Untaken Rights with allocation rigged in their favor.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#18 Posted : Thursday, August 07, 2014 5:51:14 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,121
Location: Nairobi
Gordon Gekko wrote:
Tall Order wrote:
Why is it shrouded in so much secrecy, what are they hiding, they held the AGM, why not announce the stuff we start planning for it, September is next month.

He was asked why NIC doesn't take more than the suggested ksh 2b, Ndegwa said taking more will mean a lower return on shareholder funds, so they will take small bits as they have done previously. On the previous two times they have gone for 1:10. Payments in mid-October if all regulatory approvals received according to their timetable.
That makes sense. No point in raising a lot of cash like KQ did but then leave it in the bank. Pun intended. It costs shareholders much more to give NIC more cash than NIC can deploy. It is easier and cheaper for the shareholders to wait for NIC to come back for another Rights Issue in 2016. For 2014-2015, NIC can raise KES 8bn in Tier 2 capital.

Another smart Board that does this is DTB which raises cash as it needs it. Why? Look at the Board... It consists of SHAREHOLDER-DIRECTORS [or those who represent the major shareholders] not just MANAGERS like Naikuni or Mbugua and NON-EXECS without skin in the game in KQ. Even KPLC raised more than they required in one shot since the 'owners' true interests are not represented. Then came the under-performance.

Read what Warren Buffett says about directors. One needs directors who are competent but also wealthy enough to not be bothered with perks e.g. free flights, board fees, travel allowances, etc. And if these directors are significant shareholders too then they want to look after their investment. I missed the boat on KCB but Sunil Shah had 10% at one time & drove the immense transformation at KCB. He then reduced his shareholding to 5% per CBK guidelines and left the board after 8 years per KCB's guidelines.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Aguytrying
#19 Posted : Thursday, August 07, 2014 7:27:45 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
skin in the game. I like that phrase. and it helps me choose my stocks
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
Gordon Gekko
#20 Posted : Thursday, August 07, 2014 9:42:24 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 5/27/2008
Posts: 3,760
VituVingiSana wrote:
Gordon Gekko wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Othelo wrote:
Did they announce the clear details of this rights? anybody...
No. The Ndegwas will first secure their position. Like they did last time. The minorities can go hang.

James Ndegwa when asked if the anchor shareholders will underwrite the issue to ensure success, he said that all the tough guys were on the brink of the maximum 25% allowed by CBK and couldn't give that assurance. He also said that he will consider a 50% uptake a success as there are many players fighting for investor cash, both inTier I (ordinary shares) and Tier II (bonds etc). I read this to mean that it have a very small discount and he won't take part.
Hold on. What I heard was that the anchor shareholders aka James & Family will take up ALL their Rights. The issue last time was that they took up more of the UNTAKEN RIGHTS than they let on initially. There was an initial announcement sent to the CMA showing The Family now owned 24.9% but the next day they published one where the allocation to The Family was such that the shareholding was now 25%. That 0.1% is significant since it comprised primarily of Untaken Rights with allocation rigged in their favor.

Ndegwa said that to have more than 25% they would have to apply for it thereby delaying the process, and also make a declaration that there was no takeover intended, which would all be granted but would take time. They would also have to undertake to offload excess shares within a specified time regardless of market conditions.
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