But remember Mumias at 4 to 5 bob looked to have factored in the turbulent times but it went down to ksh 3 and lower. All the same,best wishes to KQ shareholders.Your dreams are valid.

Reliance on government largesse [the extra taxes is stupid but that's government for you] is a double-edged sword since politicians will demand (& get) favors like free flights, jobs for 'their' people and demands for contracts.
The 767s were old but the massive/rapid expansion [not just replacement of 767s] is where it will hurt. A slower, thoughtful expansion would have been better. Add 4-6 planes a year thus managing the need to to hire more staff. In a downturn, the staff will want their wages and goodies and not give two hoots about KQ.

The mawingu strategy is spot on. It will take another 2-3 years for the benefits to start showing. Replacement of 767 with 787 has fuel advantages and also bigger depreciation that reduce tax. Replacement of 737 with embraer ensures that there are more frequencies with higher load factors. Replacement of 777-200 with 777-300 introduces more seats, some fuel savings, more belly space and competitive IFE, which is critical on long haul routes. They now need to sort out the VAT matter and we should be good to go.

Project Mawingu was written by consultants, approved by the Board and implemented by the Management. All 3 parties have NO financial stake in KQ. All 3 benefit from huge fees, per diems, salaries and perks. A slower or less ambitious approach should have been taken which took into account that Kenya's government [which runs JKIA] interests are not aligned with KQ or the country. The Government of Kenya is different from Kenya the State/Country/Nation.

In other words, the Consultants, Brokers, Board, Management and Employees have NO skin in the game. They can and will bail at the earliest opportunity.

Titus after 11 years [and salary, perks, benefits and pension] has left.
Alex will leave after enjoying the same.
The Project Mawingu consultants have been paid & have left.
The Employees will leave.
The Board Members will leave while enjoying free or discounted flights.
The Brokers got paid in cash not shares.
The Banks will be paid in cash or by selling off assets if KQ defaults.

Nani ameachwa? Wewe, wanahisa, ni wewe tu mmeachwa.

Yes, depreciation [non-cash expense] will save on 'taxes' but there is interest [cash] to be paid. Planes have a life of 15-25 yr life so depreciation is approx 4-7% [could be residual or straight-line] ... I have to check how KQ accounts for it. KQ's [cash] interest cost can reduce taxable income [only if there is an Operating Gain [There was an Operating Loss in 2013-14].

KQ's biggest risks are 1) Competition 2) Risk perception of Nairobi as a hub.

Anyway, I could write & write on all this BUT in the interest of brevity I am staying out until I see how 2014-15 is shaping up.

That's funny coz you've never held a funeral service for your own stocks.