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Kenya Airways FY 2014 loss of 4.8bn!!!
Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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aemathenge wrote:http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/Citigroup-sees-KQ-s-valuation-at-bourse-rising/-/539552/2365864/-/i2lwsgz/-/index.html Quote:Citigroup Global Markets, the investment banking arm of international financial giant Citigroup, said the share price had an upward potential of 41 per cent which would be driven largely by cost cutting.
“Management expects financial year 2015 to be a better year due to the cost savings and product enhancement of six B787s and two B777-300ERs being delivered,” said Citigroup Global Markets in a report dated June 25.
The analysts put the share price, at Sh15.50, with sentiment informing the direction of swings. The share closed last week at Sh11. The valuation is based on a price to earnings ratio of 10, the historical one-year forward average for European flag carrier airlines which are comparable to Kenya Airways. Citi is a shareholder who entered at 14bob rights issue so this is just pump and dump! Mark 12:29 Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/18/2008 Posts: 3,434 Location: Kerugoya
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guru267 wrote:Citi is a shareholder who entered at 14bob rights issue so this is just pump and dump! Oh. Okay. Now I know.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 4/16/2014 Posts: 1,420 Location: Bohemian Grove
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guru267 wrote:whiteowl wrote:guru267 wrote:obiero wrote:dunkang wrote:murchr wrote:guru267 wrote:Afroblk wrote:Buy now for less or buy later for more. What will you do?
What about the option of buying later for close to zero?? Look who's talking Its @guru267s chance to revenge on @Obiero!!!! haha. revenge on who?? everyone here knows I have buying KQ since 2012.. most lots between KES 9.50 and KES 11.00.. Hope you have arsenal to average down! Guys will soon be buying at 5 bob Home Afrika style.. At least I was able to average to 6 bob! 25 to 4.7 and you get an average of 6? a case study should be made out of this to guide Wazuans on future averaging down. I did not buy at 25 bob! Bought very few at 16bob.. Most buying started at 12bob and below! sawa madam Guru. kq has refused to go past sub 10 levels which is where I bought it @ so I'll just watch
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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whiteowl wrote:guru267 wrote:whiteowl wrote:guru267 wrote:obiero wrote:dunkang wrote:murchr wrote:guru267 wrote:Afroblk wrote:Buy now for less or buy later for more. What will you do?
What about the option of buying later for close to zero?? Look who's talking Its @guru267s chance to revenge on @Obiero!!!! haha. revenge on who?? everyone here knows I have buying KQ since 2012.. most lots between KES 9.50 and KES 11.00.. Hope you have arsenal to average down! Guys will soon be buying at 5 bob Home Afrika style.. At least I was able to average to 6 bob! 25 to 4.7 and you get an average of 6? a case study should be made out of this to guide Wazuans on future averaging down. I did not buy at 25 bob! Bought very few at 16bob.. Most buying started at 12bob and below! sawa madam Guru. kq has refused to go past sub 10 levels which is where I bought it @ so I'll just watch May Allah protect you! Mark 12:29 Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Member Joined: 2/18/2011 Posts: 448
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KQ shall be in the red unless they make a hedging profit this financial year.While dreamliners and 733 shall be airborne this year,the aeroplane financing costs continue to rise and competition is getting stronger.Insecurity remains a challenge and capacity constrains at JKIA further dent the margins
As noted earlier,they charge a serious premium on their routes and competition is catching up fast.A good case in point is Ethiopian,i recently did a crude comparative analysis between KQ & Ethiopian at one of the prime hubs and was amazed with the numbers queueing for ET. On furhter enquiry,the ground staff intimated that ET usually borders on full capacity while KQ has its moments.ET might have inferior service but they are flying and connecting more people from the world to Africa.Remember they have a hub in west africa and now south africa thus leverage on economies of scale.
It can be argued that the premium ticket prices may give KQ better margins but thats being short sighted as the operational costs and connectivity you offer matters alot .Thats where Ethiopian is winning the war.
Lastly one has to factor in fixed costs like training of crew and conversion of pilots from 767 to 787....operational costs shall be up at least this year.Remember the hotel that is to be put up and not to mention Jambo Jet set up costs
It is still hemorrhaging and for now,I remain out until management comes up with some solutions and also buys some shares in the company.
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Rank: Member Joined: 2/18/2011 Posts: 448
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guru267 wrote:aemathenge wrote:http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/Citigroup-sees-KQ-s-valuation-at-bourse-rising/-/539552/2365864/-/i2lwsgz/-/index.html Quote:Citigroup Global Markets, the investment banking arm of international financial giant Citigroup, said the share price had an upward potential of 41 per cent which would be driven largely by cost cutting.
“Management expects financial year 2015 to be a better year due to the cost savings and product enhancement of six B787s and two B777-300ERs being delivered,” said Citigroup Global Markets in a report dated June 25.
The analysts put the share price, at Sh15.50, with sentiment informing the direction of swings. The share closed last week at Sh11. The valuation is based on a price to earnings ratio of 10, the historical one-year forward average for European flag carrier airlines which are comparable to Kenya Airways. Citi is a shareholder who entered at 14bob rights issue so this is just pump and dump! @guru267 am with you in this,classical pump and dump.
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Rank: Member Joined: 6/15/2013 Posts: 301
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hii nitawachia watoto wangu......
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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the scary part is the major kq shareholder can stomach declining share price, bail out and bankruptcy. without stress. can you? The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,122 Location: Nairobi
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mibbz wrote:guru267 wrote:aemathenge wrote:http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/Citigroup-sees-KQ-s-valuation-at-bourse-rising/-/539552/2365864/-/i2lwsgz/-/index.html Quote:Citigroup Global Markets, the investment banking arm of international financial giant Citigroup, said the share price had an upward potential of 41 per cent which would be driven largely by cost cutting.
“Management expects financial year 2015 to be a better year due to the cost savings and product enhancement of six B787s and two B777-300ERs being delivered,” said Citigroup Global Markets in a report dated June 25.
The analysts put the share price, at Sh15.50, with sentiment informing the direction of swings. The share closed last week at Sh11. The valuation is based on a price to earnings ratio of 10, the historical one-year forward average for European flag carrier airlines which are comparable to Kenya Airways. Citi is a shareholder who entered at 14bob rights issue so this is just pump and dump! @guru267 am with you in this,classical pump and dump. Hmmm, perhaps @mibbz needs to look at some posts by @guru267 in regards to HAFR, Olympia, etc which seem to be, if not border on, attempts at pump and dump! Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,122 Location: Nairobi
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Aguytrying wrote:the scary part is the major kq shareholder can stomach declining share price, bail out and bankruptcy. without stress. can you? Well, the largest shareholder in KQ is YOU ... the Taxpayer. And the mandarins in GoK are happy to use YOUR money to bail KQ out. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Member Joined: 5/14/2014 Posts: 288 Location: nairobi
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mulla wrote:hii nitawachia watoto wangu...... maybe your kids will be better off without the stress from kq.. I find satisfaction in owning great business,not trading them
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Rank: Member Joined: 2/18/2011 Posts: 448
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VituVingiSana wrote:mibbz wrote:guru267 wrote:aemathenge wrote:http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/Citigroup-sees-KQ-s-valuation-at-bourse-rising/-/539552/2365864/-/i2lwsgz/-/index.html Quote:Citigroup Global Markets, the investment banking arm of international financial giant Citigroup, said the share price had an upward potential of 41 per cent which would be driven largely by cost cutting.
“Management expects financial year 2015 to be a better year due to the cost savings and product enhancement of six B787s and two B777-300ERs being delivered,” said Citigroup Global Markets in a report dated June 25.
The analysts put the share price, at Sh15.50, with sentiment informing the direction of swings. The share closed last week at Sh11. The valuation is based on a price to earnings ratio of 10, the historical one-year forward average for European flag carrier airlines which are comparable to Kenya Airways. Citi is a shareholder who entered at 14bob rights issue so this is just pump and dump! @guru267 am with you in this,classical pump and dump. Hmmm, perhaps @mibbz needs to look at some posts by @guru267 in regards to HAFR, Olympia, etc which seem to be, if not border on, attempts at pump and dump! @vvs I was here reading her attempts to spruce Olympia which succeeded in creating demand for a laggard as such.I believe she has a huge risk appetite thus the HAFR move.Plus it takes one to know another,thus the reason she saw through citi
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Rank: Member Joined: 2/18/2011 Posts: 448
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VituVingiSana wrote:Aguytrying wrote:the scary part is the major kq shareholder can stomach declining share price, bail out and bankruptcy. without stress. can you? Well, the largest shareholder in KQ is YOU ... the Taxpayer. And the mandarins in GoK are happy to use YOUR money to bail KQ out. Very wise words VVS,as I am paying for KQs survival indirectly via tax I don't see the need to further invest scarce resource in this venture.
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Rank: Member Joined: 5/6/2014 Posts: 268 Location: Nairobi, Kenya
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@Nibbs, Soon KQ will be paying for your survival via tax :) http://www.businessdaily...2/-/14xlm83/-/index.html
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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Blood in the sky. Time to buy if you always wanted an airline in your portifolio. Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Member Joined: 5/6/2014 Posts: 268 Location: Nairobi, Kenya
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sparkly wrote:Blood in the sky. Time to buy if you always wanted an airline in your portifolio. @Sparkly, Sure there has to be blood in the sky for investors to make money. I quote your signature "The opposite of bravery is not cowardice but conformity"
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Rank: Member Joined: 2/18/2011 Posts: 448
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[quote=Akenyan2014]@Nibbs, Soon KQ will be paying for your survival via tax :) http://www.businessdaily.../-/14xlm83/-/index.html[/quote] We both know if they pay the tax,financing costs go up and they turn to shareholders for more funds;its a vicious cycle that keeps moving tax payers money.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,122 Location: Nairobi
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mibbz wrote:[quote=Akenyan2014]@Nibbs, Soon KQ will be paying for your survival via tax :) http://www.businessdaily.../-/14xlm83/-/index.html[/quote] We both know if they pay the tax,financing costs go up and they turn to shareholders for more funds;its a vicious cycle that keeps moving tax payers money. It's a pity. KQ should have stayed 'smaller' and could have managed to ride through the storms. I worry that lower passenger numbers will devastate them as the interest costs mount for the new planes. New 787s New 777s New E-190s And do you really need 'new' and 'spacious' in many African markets? Will passengers [excluding government, NGOs, freeloaders] pay extra for newer or better planes? Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Member Joined: 5/6/2014 Posts: 268 Location: Nairobi, Kenya
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I think all those fears are already factored in the current price hammering. It is true the E-190s doesn't look like a good business philosophy, there were better alternatives. But those old 767s had to be replaced at some point, the earlier the better for lower operation costs. 777's capacity addition needed not be delayed either. I agree on the capital intensive options taken could prove tough. The govt. might perhaps be called upon to help eg. with taxation headache (not a guarantee though) but eventually things will look up at some point. For sure the govt. cannot watch it collapse, it cannot be a choice to see a national carrier collapse.
I find one big problem is the fuel costs and irreducible wage bill (since a significant portion goes to untouchable key staff such as pilots). The only reservation I have is the fact that of no share ownership by management, perhaps they know recovery could take longer.
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Rank: Member Joined: 2/18/2011 Posts: 448
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Akenyan2014 wrote:I think all those fears are already factored in the current price hammering. It is true the E-190s doesn't look like a good business philosophy, there were better alternatives. But those old 767s had to be replaced at some point, the earlier the better for lower operation costs. 777's capacity addition needed not be delayed either. I agree on the capital intensive options taken could prove tough. The govt. might perhaps be called upon to help eg. with taxation headache (not a guarantee though) but eventually things will look up at some point. For sure the govt. cannot watch it collapse, it cannot be a choice to see a national carrier collapse.
I find one big problem is the fuel costs and irreducible wage bill (since a significant portion goes to untouchable key staff such as pilots). The only reservation I have is the fact that of no share ownership by management, perhaps they know recovery could take longer. South African airways has resorted to the government several times when faced with massive losses.I wonder how much the shareholders are willing to put to sustain KQ. All in all i see a decent hedging profit this year should the situation in Iraq remain status quo and that might just cover most of these negative externalities.
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Kenya Airways FY 2014 loss of 4.8bn!!!
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