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Kenya Airways FY 2014 loss of 4.8bn!!!
guru267
#81 Posted : Monday, June 30, 2014 10:13:04 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
aemathenge wrote:
http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/Citigroup-sees-KQ-s-valuation-at-bourse-rising/-/539552/2365864/-/i2lwsgz/-/index.html

Quote:
Citigroup Global Markets, the investment banking arm of international financial giant Citigroup, said the share price had an upward potential of 41 per cent which would be driven largely by cost cutting.

“Management expects financial year 2015 to be a better year due to the cost savings and product enhancement of six B787s and two B777-300ERs being delivered,” said Citigroup Global Markets in a report dated June 25.

The analysts put the share price, at Sh15.50, with sentiment informing the direction of swings. The share closed last week at Sh11. The valuation is based on a price to earnings ratio of 10, the historical one-year forward average for European flag carrier airlines which are comparable to Kenya Airways.


Citi is a shareholder who entered at 14bob rights issue so this is just pump and dump! Sad
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
aemathenge
#82 Posted : Monday, June 30, 2014 10:38:09 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/18/2008
Posts: 3,434
Location: Kerugoya
guru267 wrote:
Citi is a shareholder who entered at 14bob rights issue so this is just pump and dump! Sad

Oh. Okay. Now I know.
whiteowl
#83 Posted : Monday, June 30, 2014 11:56:35 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/16/2014
Posts: 1,420
Location: Bohemian Grove
guru267 wrote:
whiteowl wrote:
guru267 wrote:
obiero wrote:
dunkang wrote:
murchr wrote:
guru267 wrote:
Afroblk wrote:
Buy now for less or buy later for more. What will you do?


What about the option of buying later for close to zero??


Look who's talking Laughing out loudly

Its @guru267s chance to revenge on @Obiero!!!!

haha. revenge on who?? everyone here knows I have buying KQ since 2012.. most lots between KES 9.50 and KES 11.00..


Hope you have arsenal to average down!

Guys will soon be buying at 5 bob Home Afrika style..

At least I was able to average to 6 bob!


25 to 4.7 and you get an average of 6? a case study should be made out of this to guide Wazuans on future averaging down.


I did not buy at 25 bob!

Bought very few at 16bob..

Most buying started at 12bob and below!


sawa madam Guru. kq has refused to go past sub 10 levels which is where I bought it @ so I'll just watch
guru267
#84 Posted : Monday, June 30, 2014 2:20:44 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
whiteowl wrote:
guru267 wrote:
whiteowl wrote:
guru267 wrote:
obiero wrote:
dunkang wrote:
murchr wrote:
guru267 wrote:
Afroblk wrote:
Buy now for less or buy later for more. What will you do?


What about the option of buying later for close to zero??


Look who's talking Laughing out loudly

Its @guru267s chance to revenge on @Obiero!!!!

haha. revenge on who?? everyone here knows I have buying KQ since 2012.. most lots between KES 9.50 and KES 11.00..


Hope you have arsenal to average down!

Guys will soon be buying at 5 bob Home Afrika style..

At least I was able to average to 6 bob!


25 to 4.7 and you get an average of 6? a case study should be made out of this to guide Wazuans on future averaging down.


I did not buy at 25 bob!

Bought very few at 16bob..

Most buying started at 12bob and below!


sawa madam Guru. kq has refused to go past sub 10 levels which is where I bought it @ so I'll just watch


May Allah protect you!
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
mibbz
#85 Posted : Monday, June 30, 2014 5:30:47 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/18/2011
Posts: 448
KQ shall be in the red unless they make a hedging profit this financial year.While dreamliners and 733 shall be airborne this year,the aeroplane financing costs continue to rise and competition is getting stronger.Insecurity remains a challenge and capacity constrains at JKIA further dent the margins

As noted earlier,they charge a serious premium on their routes and competition is catching up fast.A good case in point is Ethiopian,i recently did a crude comparative analysis between KQ & Ethiopian at one of the prime hubs and was amazed with the numbers queueing for ET. On furhter enquiry,the ground staff intimated that ET usually borders on full capacity while KQ has its moments.ET might have inferior service but they are flying and connecting more people from the world to Africa.Remember they have a hub in west africa and now south africa thus leverage on economies of scale.

It can be argued that the premium ticket prices may give KQ better margins but thats being short sighted as the operational costs and connectivity you offer matters alot .Thats where Ethiopian is winning the war.

Lastly one has to factor in fixed costs like training of crew and conversion of pilots from 767 to 787....operational costs shall be up at least this year.Remember the hotel that is to be put up and not to mention Jambo Jet set up costs

It is still hemorrhaging and for now,I remain out until management comes up with some solutions and also buys some shares in the company.
mibbz
#86 Posted : Monday, June 30, 2014 5:32:26 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/18/2011
Posts: 448
guru267 wrote:
aemathenge wrote:
http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/Citigroup-sees-KQ-s-valuation-at-bourse-rising/-/539552/2365864/-/i2lwsgz/-/index.html

Quote:
Citigroup Global Markets, the investment banking arm of international financial giant Citigroup, said the share price had an upward potential of 41 per cent which would be driven largely by cost cutting.

“Management expects financial year 2015 to be a better year due to the cost savings and product enhancement of six B787s and two B777-300ERs being delivered,” said Citigroup Global Markets in a report dated June 25.

The analysts put the share price, at Sh15.50, with sentiment informing the direction of swings. The share closed last week at Sh11. The valuation is based on a price to earnings ratio of 10, the historical one-year forward average for European flag carrier airlines which are comparable to Kenya Airways.


Citi is a shareholder who entered at 14bob rights issue so this is just pump and dump! Sad



@guru267 am with you in this,classical pump and dump.
mulla
#87 Posted : Monday, June 30, 2014 5:46:28 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/15/2013
Posts: 301
hii nitawachia watoto wangu......
Aguytrying
#88 Posted : Monday, June 30, 2014 6:27:46 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
the scary part is the major kq shareholder can stomach declining share price, bail out and bankruptcy. without stress. can you?
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
VituVingiSana
#89 Posted : Monday, June 30, 2014 7:21:34 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,122
Location: Nairobi
mibbz wrote:
guru267 wrote:
aemathenge wrote:
http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/Citigroup-sees-KQ-s-valuation-at-bourse-rising/-/539552/2365864/-/i2lwsgz/-/index.html

Quote:
Citigroup Global Markets, the investment banking arm of international financial giant Citigroup, said the share price had an upward potential of 41 per cent which would be driven largely by cost cutting.

“Management expects financial year 2015 to be a better year due to the cost savings and product enhancement of six B787s and two B777-300ERs being delivered,” said Citigroup Global Markets in a report dated June 25.

The analysts put the share price, at Sh15.50, with sentiment informing the direction of swings. The share closed last week at Sh11. The valuation is based on a price to earnings ratio of 10, the historical one-year forward average for European flag carrier airlines which are comparable to Kenya Airways.


Citi is a shareholder who entered at 14bob rights issue so this is just pump and dump! Sad



@guru267 am with you in this,classical pump and dump.
Hmmm, perhaps @mibbz needs to look at some posts by @guru267 in regards to HAFR, Olympia, etc which seem to be, if not border on, attempts at pump and dump!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#90 Posted : Monday, June 30, 2014 7:26:26 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,122
Location: Nairobi
Aguytrying wrote:
the scary part is the major kq shareholder can stomach declining share price, bail out and bankruptcy. without stress. can you?
Well, the largest shareholder in KQ is YOU ... the Taxpayer. And the mandarins in GoK are happy to use YOUR money to bail KQ out.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
target1360
#91 Posted : Monday, June 30, 2014 7:54:49 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/14/2014
Posts: 288
Location: nairobi
mulla wrote:
hii nitawachia watoto wangu......


maybe your kids will be better off without the stress from kq..smile
I find satisfaction in owning great business,not trading them
mibbz
#92 Posted : Monday, June 30, 2014 9:14:59 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/18/2011
Posts: 448
VituVingiSana wrote:
mibbz wrote:
guru267 wrote:
aemathenge wrote:
http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/Citigroup-sees-KQ-s-valuation-at-bourse-rising/-/539552/2365864/-/i2lwsgz/-/index.html

Quote:
Citigroup Global Markets, the investment banking arm of international financial giant Citigroup, said the share price had an upward potential of 41 per cent which would be driven largely by cost cutting.

“Management expects financial year 2015 to be a better year due to the cost savings and product enhancement of six B787s and two B777-300ERs being delivered,” said Citigroup Global Markets in a report dated June 25.

The analysts put the share price, at Sh15.50, with sentiment informing the direction of swings. The share closed last week at Sh11. The valuation is based on a price to earnings ratio of 10, the historical one-year forward average for European flag carrier airlines which are comparable to Kenya Airways.


Citi is a shareholder who entered at 14bob rights issue so this is just pump and dump! Sad



@guru267 am with you in this,classical pump and dump.
Hmmm, perhaps @mibbz needs to look at some posts by @guru267 in regards to HAFR, Olympia, etc which seem to be, if not border on, attempts at pump and dump!



@vvs I was here reading her attempts to spruce Olympia which succeeded in creating demand for a laggard as such.I believe she has a huge risk appetite thus the HAFR move.Plus it takes one to know another,thus the reason she saw through citi
mibbz
#93 Posted : Monday, June 30, 2014 9:17:25 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/18/2011
Posts: 448
VituVingiSana wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
the scary part is the major kq shareholder can stomach declining share price, bail out and bankruptcy. without stress. can you?
Well, the largest shareholder in KQ is YOU ... the Taxpayer. And the mandarins in GoK are happy to use YOUR money to bail KQ out.


Very wise words VVS,as I am paying for KQs survival indirectly via tax I don't see the need to further invest scarce resource in this venture.
Akenyan2014
#94 Posted : Tuesday, July 01, 2014 9:34:38 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/6/2014
Posts: 268
Location: Nairobi, Kenya
@Nibbs, Soon KQ will be paying for your survival via tax :)
http://www.businessdaily...2/-/14xlm83/-/index.html
sparkly
#95 Posted : Tuesday, July 01, 2014 9:35:29 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
Blood in the sky. Time to buy if you always wanted an airline in your portifolio.
Life is short. Live passionately.
Akenyan2014
#96 Posted : Tuesday, July 01, 2014 11:21:35 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/6/2014
Posts: 268
Location: Nairobi, Kenya
sparkly wrote:
Blood in the sky. Time to buy if you always wanted an airline in your portifolio.

@Sparkly, Sure there has to be blood in the sky for investors to make money. I quote your signature

"The opposite of bravery is not cowardice but conformity"
mibbz
#97 Posted : Tuesday, July 01, 2014 11:53:08 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/18/2011
Posts: 448
[quote=Akenyan2014]@Nibbs, Soon KQ will be paying for your survival via tax :)
http://www.businessdaily.../-/14xlm83/-/index.html[/quote]

We both know if they pay the tax,financing costs go up and they turn to shareholders for more funds;its a vicious cycle that keeps moving tax payers money.
VituVingiSana
#98 Posted : Tuesday, July 01, 2014 7:39:43 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,122
Location: Nairobi
mibbz wrote:
[quote=Akenyan2014]@Nibbs, Soon KQ will be paying for your survival via tax :)
http://www.businessdaily.../-/14xlm83/-/index.html[/quote]

We both know if they pay the tax,financing costs go up and they turn to shareholders for more funds;its a vicious cycle that keeps moving tax payers money.
It's a pity. KQ should have stayed 'smaller' and could have managed to ride through the storms. I worry that lower passenger numbers will devastate them as the interest costs mount for the new planes.

New 787s
New 777s
New E-190s

And do you really need 'new' and 'spacious' in many African markets? Will passengers [excluding government, NGOs, freeloaders] pay extra for newer or better planes?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Akenyan2014
#99 Posted : Tuesday, July 01, 2014 9:29:21 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/6/2014
Posts: 268
Location: Nairobi, Kenya
I think all those fears are already factored in the current price hammering. It is true the E-190s doesn't look like a good business philosophy, there were better alternatives. But those old 767s had to be replaced at some point, the earlier the better for lower operation costs. 777's capacity addition needed not be delayed either.
I agree on the capital intensive options taken could prove tough. The govt. might perhaps be called upon to help eg. with taxation headache (not a guarantee though) but eventually things will look up at some point. For sure the govt. cannot watch it collapse, it cannot be a choice to see a national carrier collapse.

I find one big problem is the fuel costs and irreducible wage bill (since a significant portion goes to untouchable key staff such as pilots). The only reservation I have is the fact that of no share ownership by management, perhaps they know recovery could take longer.
mibbz
#100 Posted : Wednesday, July 02, 2014 12:05:41 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/18/2011
Posts: 448
Akenyan2014 wrote:
I think all those fears are already factored in the current price hammering. It is true the E-190s doesn't look like a good business philosophy, there were better alternatives. But those old 767s had to be replaced at some point, the earlier the better for lower operation costs. 777's capacity addition needed not be delayed either.
I agree on the capital intensive options taken could prove tough. The govt. might perhaps be called upon to help eg. with taxation headache (not a guarantee though) but eventually things will look up at some point. For sure the govt. cannot watch it collapse, it cannot be a choice to see a national carrier collapse.

I find one big problem is the fuel costs and irreducible wage bill (since a significant portion goes to untouchable key staff such as pilots). The only reservation I have is the fact that of no share ownership by management, perhaps they know recovery could take longer.



South African airways has resorted to the government several times when faced with massive losses.I wonder how much the shareholders are willing to put to sustain KQ. All in all i see a decent hedging profit this year should the situation in Iraq remain status quo and that might just cover most of these negative externalities.
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