When mpesa bank bollinger bands (BB) constrict, it's that time to pay close attention to the market. Constricted BB mean a breakout (up/down move) is coming. Mpesa bank's heavy index weight influences the overall market direction.

NSE20 climb stalled in Nov 2013 and has dipped to test 4700 with 5000 still a steely resistance zone. NSE20 also face constricted BB and has broken lower.

Mpesa bank price has also stalled with 13 level rejecting advance.

Is it that time for the discounts season?
Is cbk going to hike cbr?
Is KES about to take it in the chin vs $?
Is the tbill rate heading past 11% and higher?
Is inflation going to vault past 10%
Is KE GDP really going to print 4.5% - forget those rosy estimates of plus 5%?

The eurobond trump card ensures $ demand will be high to repay the $ bond interest. If GDP is shrinking where will the KES needed to buy the $ for repayments come from in 2014/2015? If commercial oil flow delays more KES weakness is expected.

KE Macroecon not rosy in 2014/2015 time frame. For short term outlook I expect KES to continue sliding, tbill rates to head up as inflation climbs forcing cbk to hike cbr at some point. Bad for an econ on slow down, but a necessity to firm KES.

Equities don't rally in austerity period and austerity is here though quietly!? Consumer dependent counters to head south in process as consumers cut back spending. Have you been spending less this year or planning to do so (both as a person or biz)? That means less KES movement in the econ (econ slump).

IMO I don't see any upside above 5000 at NSE20. Easier to test 4400 than race above 5k level. Look out for discounts, cheap rights issues etc.

@vvs - That response is uncalled for "kwani ni wazazi wako?' Stick to the issue.

My opinion was WB & its sister IMF tend to always over estimate year in year out when conducting economic analysis of any country. Since westgate, agri and industrial slump in Q4 2014, it was evident their lofty GDP estimate (as well as gok) was an over estimate just to charge the eurobond issue.

@vvs - That response is uncalled for "kwani ni wazazi wako?' Stick to the issue.

My opinion was WB & its sister IMF tend to always over estimate year in year out when conducting economic analysis of any country. Since westgate, agri and industrial slump in Q4 2014, it was evident their lofty GDP estimate (as well as gok) was an over estimate just to charge the eurobond issue.

I meant it in a 'hilarious' manner... What I mean is they owe us nothing. When they conduct these 'surveys' or 'assessments' there are a lot of variables. And we do not pay for it so there are no refunds. The after-effects of Westgate [& subsequent mayhem] cannot be accurately forecast due to 'lag' ... When the GFC hit, Kenya thought it had escaped but we were hit in 2009 extending into 2010. The long-term effects of PEV were felt later in the year & then with poor harvests leading into 2009. We may still have IDPs.

the battlelines in the cement sector are forming. I'm I the only one paying attention?

bamburi's principal shareholder merges with holcim to for worlds largest cement company.

dangote cement eyeing entry into kenyan market.

eapcc associated with dangote takeover and wars between gava and la farge most likely about this

arm expanding capacity aggressively in recent past, has high debt

small players grabbing market share from the leaders.