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KenolKobil & Total-Kenya Valuation and Recommendation
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Boris Boyka
#121 Posted : Tuesday, November 19, 2013 10:49:44 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/15/2013
Posts: 1,977
Location: Here
how are you wazuans? do you see kk get to 15 end yr 2014?
Everybody STEALS, a THIEF is one who's CAUGHT stealing something of LITTLE VALUE. !!!
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murchr
#122 Posted : Tuesday, November 19, 2013 11:44:22 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
Boris Boyka wrote:
how are you wazuans? do you see kk get to 15 end yr 2014?


There's a questionaire for wazua newbies to fill...and clearly you havent done that. Its got to do with sockets and plugs...
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
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Boris Boyka
#123 Posted : Wednesday, November 20, 2013 7:39:40 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/15/2013
Posts: 1,977
Location: Here
@murchr apologies. so how do i go about it?
Everybody STEALS, a THIEF is one who's CAUGHT stealing something of LITTLE VALUE. !!!
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subaru
#124 Posted : Wednesday, November 20, 2013 9:47:33 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/15/2010
Posts: 391
Location: nairobie
@ boris last year 2012 month of august kk was 16 bob tafakari hayo
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target1360
#125 Posted : Friday, June 06, 2014 1:12:21 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/14/2014
Posts: 288
Location: nairobi
Total kenya is the most undervalued stock at the NSE.Soon youl understand!
I find satisfaction in owning great business,not trading them
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Mucene
#126 Posted : Friday, June 06, 2014 8:05:34 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/4/2012
Posts: 155
Location: Kenya
target1360 wrote:
Total kenya is the most undervalued stock at the NSE.Soon youl understand!


based on FY 2013 results
TOTAL---KK
p/b--0.44---2
PE--12.5---23.7
Div yield-2.3%---1.1%

Clearly total beats KK but what are the terms of the Sh. 5.2b preference shares issued by total to total group and the outlook for both companies in FY14?
If you don't want to go to plan B have a good plan A.
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target1360
#127 Posted : Friday, June 06, 2014 10:33:57 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/14/2014
Posts: 288
Location: nairobi
Mucene wrote:
target1360 wrote:
Total kenya is the most undervalued stock at the NSE.Soon youl understand!


based on FY 2013 results
TOTAL---KK
p/b--0.44---2
PE--12.5---23.7
Div yield-2.3%---1.1%

Clearly total beats KK but what are the terms of the Sh. 5.2b preference shares issued by total to total group and the outlook for both companies in FY14?


check out the cashflow statement.the company generates more than that 5.2 b in cashflow in a year.i could be wrong but this company is worth deeper analysis
I find satisfaction in owning great business,not trading them
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guru267
#128 Posted : Saturday, June 07, 2014 9:33:12 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
target1360 wrote:
Total kenya is the most undervalued stock at the NSE.Soon youl understand!


Hapo you might have lied!

Earnings here are not stable so the 5 year average is probably lower than you think!

And I never trust valuing companies loaded with preferred shares!
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Mucene
#129 Posted : Sunday, June 08, 2014 1:55:40 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/4/2012
Posts: 155
Location: Kenya
target1360 wrote:
Mucene wrote:
target1360 wrote:
Total kenya is the most undervalued stock at the NSE.Soon youl understand!


based on FY 2013 results
TOTAL---KK
p/b--0.44---2
PE--12.5---23.7
Div yield-2.3%---1.1%

Clearly total beats KK but what are the terms of the Sh. 5.2b preference shares issued by total to total group and the outlook for both companies in FY14?


check out the cashflow statement.the company generates more than that 5.2 b in cashflow in a year.i could be wrong but this company is worth deeper analysis


Currently holds 2.4b in cashflows up from overdraft of 3.6b. The cashflow was greatly boosted by the preference shares the previous FY.
@guru267 might agree with me that these preference shares mighht come to haunt it.
If you don't want to go to plan B have a good plan A.
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target1360
#130 Posted : Sunday, June 08, 2014 5:30:57 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/14/2014
Posts: 288
Location: nairobi
Mucene wrote:
target1360 wrote:
Mucene wrote:
target1360 wrote:
Total kenya is the most undervalued stock at the NSE.Soon youl understand!


based on FY 2013 results
TOTAL---KK
p/b--0.44---2
PE--12.5---23.7
Div yield-2.3%---1.1%

Clearly total beats KK but what are the terms of the Sh. 5.2b preference shares issued by total to total group and the outlook for both companies in FY14?


check out the cashflow statement.the company generates more than that 5.2 b in cashflow in a year.i could be wrong but this company is worth deeper analysis


Currently holds 2.4b in cashflows up from overdraft of 3.6b. The cashflow was greatly boosted by the preference shares the previous FY.
@guru267 might agree with me that these preference shares mighht come to haunt it.


free cashflow for each of the two years is above 5.2 b . even with the preference shares and the fact that oil marketers require alot of working capital i have a sufficient margin of safety on this one.
let us talk in 2-3 years time!
I find satisfaction in owning great business,not trading them
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Aguytrying
#131 Posted : Monday, June 09, 2014 9:07:22 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
@target. calculate the p/b, pe and nav using the ordinary shares as well as preference shares. the preference shares are actually worth 9 billion shs. 5.2b was one of the tranches. mid last year total announced that redemption of these shares was going to start. I have no doubt total k shares will soon be trading in the 40's however the share price will be bogged down for a long time.

on another note: this has been said before. with all these major traffic jams and exponential increase in private cars imported from japan and a rising middle class. surely the fuel budget per month is increasing. the oil companies SURELY stand to benefit? right?
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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guru267
#132 Posted : Monday, June 09, 2014 10:45:28 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
target1360 wrote:
Mucene wrote:
target1360 wrote:
Mucene wrote:
target1360 wrote:
Total kenya is the most undervalued stock at the NSE.Soon youl understand!


based on FY 2013 results
TOTAL---KK
p/b--0.44---2
PE--12.5---23.7
Div yield-2.3%---1.1%

Clearly total beats KK but what are the terms of the Sh. 5.2b preference shares issued by total to total group and the outlook for both companies in FY14?


check out the cashflow statement.the company generates more than that 5.2 b in cashflow in a year.i could be wrong but this company is worth deeper analysis


Currently holds 2.4b in cashflows up from overdraft of 3.6b. The cashflow was greatly boosted by the preference shares the previous FY.
@guru267 might agree with me that these preference shares mighht come to haunt it.


free cashflow for each of the two years is above 5.2 b . even with the preference shares and the fact that oil marketers require alot of working capital i have a sufficient margin of safety on this one.
let us talk in 2-3 years time!


All that cash flow you speak about came from preference shares!

How does the margin of safety come in??
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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target1360
#133 Posted : Monday, June 09, 2014 1:05:27 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/14/2014
Posts: 288
Location: nairobi
guru267 wrote:
target1360 wrote:
Mucene wrote:
target1360 wrote:
Mucene wrote:
[quote=target1360]Total kenya is the most undervalued stock at the NSE.Soon youl understand!


based on FY 2013 results
TOTAL---KK
p/b--0.44---2
PE--12.5---23.7
Div yield-2.3%---1.1%

Clearly total beats KK but what are the terms of the Sh. 5.2b preference shares issued by total to total group and the outlook for both companies in FY14?


check out the cashflow statement.the company generates more than that 5.2 b in cashflow in a year.i could be wrong but this company is worth deeper analysis
[/quote

Currently holds 2.4b in cashflows up from overdraft of 3.6b. The cashflow was greatly boosted by the preference shares the previous FY.
@guru267 might agree with me that these preference shares mighht come to haunt it.


free cashflow for each of the two years is above 5.2 b . even with the preference shares and the fact that oil marketers require alot of working capital i have a sufficient margin of safety on this one.
let us talk in 2-3 years time!


All that cash flow you speak about came from preference shares!

How does the margin of safety come in??


Cash flow from operations(2013=7.8b) is indicated separate from proceeds from issuance of preference shares(2012=5.2b) in the cashflow statements.
cashflow from operations 2010=6.01b
2011=-2b 2012=6.7b 2013=7.8b
I dont bother much about NAV but anyway even if total were to pay off all those preference shares the company would prudently trade at book value.
What excites me is the ability of this company to generate cash.
Margin of safety is the margin of error that i allow myself on my valuations.
@aguy i agree with you.
I find satisfaction in owning great business,not trading them
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VituVingiSana
#134 Posted : Wednesday, June 18, 2014 7:48:30 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,121
Location: Nairobi
OTS - KK is back in the game. It was chosen to deliver one cargo of emergency Jet A-1
http://www.nation.co.ke/...16/-/59gdf9/-/index.html
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Aguytrying
#135 Posted : Wednesday, June 18, 2014 8:36:18 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
[quote=VituVingiSana]OTS - KK is back in the game. It was chosen to deliver one cargo of emergency Jet A-1
http://www.nation.co.ke/...6/-/59gdf9/-/index.html[/quote]

nice. I think kk need to change their image. by changing colours. or making them brighter. I'm I alone on this?
the kobil colours are ok but kenol.....not inspiring
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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SittingPretty
#136 Posted : Wednesday, June 18, 2014 10:56:43 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/16/2013
Posts: 123
Location: MSA
There was a launch of the Nextgen complex, modeled in the way of Petronas Towers. Anyone who attended that launch. Does it herald the extend of diversification KK is undertaking?
Timely advice is as lovely as golden apples in a silver basket. Proverbs 25:11
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mlennyma
#137 Posted : Wednesday, June 18, 2014 1:54:37 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,183
Location: nairobi
Here is my div. cheque by post.give me more this year i pray for the price to stay low i pump in 0.5m i expect.
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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VituVingiSana
#138 Posted : Wednesday, June 18, 2014 2:26:13 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,121
Location: Nairobi
SittingPretty wrote:
There was a launch of the Nextgen complex, modeled in the way of Petronas Towers. Anyone who attended that launch. Does it herald the extend of diversification KK is undertaking?
Why do you say it is a KK project?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Gordon Gekko
#139 Posted : Wednesday, June 18, 2014 3:28:07 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 5/27/2008
Posts: 3,760
VituVingiSana wrote:
SittingPretty wrote:
There was a launch of the Nextgen complex, modeled in the way of Petronas Towers. Anyone who attended that launch. Does it herald the extend of diversification KK is undertaking?
Why do you say it is a KK project?

As far as I'm aware, Nextgen is financed and developed by one N***n Sh*h - not aware of KK role.
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Gordon Gekko
#140 Posted : Wednesday, June 18, 2014 3:31:57 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 5/27/2008
Posts: 3,760
[quote=VituVingiSana]OTS - KK is back in the game. It was chosen to deliver one cargo of emergency Jet A-1
http://www.nation.co.ke/...6/-/59gdf9/-/index.html[/quote]

Is OTS good margin business? Ohana never mentioned it at the AGM. I suspect they jumped in to curry favour with sirkal, Ohana mentioned that one of their strategies moving forward is to cooperate with the gaarment.
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