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Here comes the Pererabond...
KulaRaha
#1 Posted : Wednesday, June 04, 2014 3:33:29 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/26/2007
Posts: 6,514
The Republic of Kenya (rated B+ Stable / B+ Stable by S&P and Fitch respectively), has mandated Barclays, J. P. Morgan, Standard Bank and QNB Capital to arrange a series of fixed income investor meetings in the US and UK commencing on Thursday, 5th June 2014. An inaugural Rule 144A/RegS USD benchmark offering may follow, subject to market conditions. FCA/ICMA stabilization.

*** REPUBLIC OF KENYA - GLOBAL ROADSHOW SCHEDULE ***

Thu 5th June - San Francisco
Fri 6th June - Los Angeles
Mon 9th June – Boston
Tue 10th June – New York (Group Lunch)
Wed 11th June – New York
Thu 12th June – London
Fri 13th June – London (Group Lunch)
Sun 15th June – UAE

The Republic of Kenya will be represented by:
Henry Rotich - Cabinet Secretary of the National Treasury
Dr. Kamau Thugge - Permanent Secretary of the National Treasury
Dr. Geoffrey Mwau - Economic Secretary of the National Treasury
Felister Kivisi - Senior Assistant Director, Debt Management Office of the National Treasury
Gerald Arita – Director Financial Markets, Central Bank of Kenya
Business opportunities are like buses,there's always another one coming
KulaRaha
#2 Posted : Wednesday, June 04, 2014 3:41:12 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/26/2007
Posts: 6,514
Now on FT:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/...-8cef-00144feabdc0.html

Any bets on the yield? I say nothing less that 8%.
Business opportunities are like buses,there's always another one coming
muganda
#3 Posted : Wednesday, June 04, 2014 4:00:53 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/15/2006
Posts: 3,905
Kenya launches $2bn debut bond roadshow
By Katrina Manson in Nairobi and Javier Blas in Maputo

Kenya will launch its much-delayed attempt to raise a $2bn debut sovereign bond on Thursday with a 10-day international campaign starting in the US.

Investors eager to tap growth in east Africa’s top economy – one of the last big economies on the continent to come to the market with a debut eurobond – have awaited for years the country’s maiden issue, touted at $1.5bn-$2bn.

“The amount raised will be determined at the end of the roadshow; the government would like $2bn,” said a person familiar with the government’s eurobond strategy.

Nairobi needs to raise the money to fund heavy infrastructure investment and pay off a $600m syndicated loan from 2012, the repayment deadline of which was extended to mid-August last month.



A four-person roadshow team, led by Henry Rotich, finance minister, left Kenya late on Tuesday night bound for Los Angeles.

They will also visit San Francisco, Boston and New York before finishing in London on June 13. Pricing is expected the following week.

“We were working on the preliminaries until very very late, until [the roadshow team] jumped on a plane at midnight,” said a person familiar with the eurobond issue.

Njuguna Ndung’u, the central bank governor who is due to be prosecuted over accusations of graft and abuse of office, said he had not joined the roadshow team.

muganda
#4 Posted : Wednesday, June 04, 2014 4:28:03 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/15/2006
Posts: 3,905
Preliminary prospectus 03-Jun-14 http://www.rich.co.ke/rcfrbs/do...0-%203%20June%202014.PDF

A little Safaricomish noting Dyer & Blair is co-manager and J.P. Morgan a lead manager.
KulaRaha
#5 Posted : Wednesday, June 04, 2014 4:35:02 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/26/2007
Posts: 6,514
High risk paper comes with a premium price. Zambia issued at 8+% and now trading at 7.4% due to rally in sovereigns.

I still hold 8% min price on this one...and a lot of pain for Kenyans for 30 years.
Business opportunities are like buses,there's always another one coming
Mainat
#6 Posted : Wednesday, June 04, 2014 4:59:40 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/21/2006
Posts: 1,590
Maturity will be important. If its 10yr, then 8-9% and higher as you go longer...
Sehemu ndio nyumba
hisah
#7 Posted : Wednesday, June 04, 2014 5:42:15 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
This float will definitely be above 8% due to the current affairs local and global. Why does KE want to pay such high interest payments? High interest = high risk. This pererabond is like a junk bond... Will wait to see the subscription outcome.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
muganda
#8 Posted : Wednesday, June 04, 2014 6:15:34 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/15/2006
Posts: 3,905
Random thoughts

• Nominal GDP shows a 4.7% growth and 5.7% inflation
• Our exports are only 40% of what we import.
• Comparatively we lag Zambia and Ghana in GDP

• Kenya GDP is Agriculture (25%), followed by Trade (10%) then Transport & Communication (9%)
• In real GDP growth for 2013, Construction was 6th behind Trade, Mining, Financial, Transport & Comm, Energy.
• In real GDP growth for 2013, only Hotels & Restaurants showed a decline
• Only 2.2m wage employees out of a total 13m recorded employment

• Kenya currently has 45% of its debt as external.
• Kenya annual debt servicing stands at an approx 7% rate of outstanding
• IFAD, AfDB lead organizational lenders; China/Japan eclipsing USA/Germany as largest country lenders
• Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bills account for 1.2trn internal debt
• Kengen by far leads government guaranteed debt followed by KPA

• Kenya operating a twin deficit - balance of payments (8.3% of GDP) & budget (20% of revenues)




aemathenge
#9 Posted : Wednesday, June 04, 2014 6:21:24 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/18/2008
Posts: 3,434
Location: Kerugoya
KulaRaha wrote:

The Republic of Kenya will be represented by:
Henry Rotich - Cabinet Secretary of the National Treasury
Dr. Kamau Thugge - Permanent Secretary of the National Treasury
Dr. Geoffrey Mwau - Economic Secretary of the National Treasury
Felister Kivisi - Senior Assistant Director, Debt Management Office of the National Treasury
Gerald Arita – Director Financial Markets, Central Bank of Kenya

Will there come a point in the future when the office of the Attorney General claim that since it was not in the entourage, it shall not be held responsible for any legal penalties?
murchr
#10 Posted : Wednesday, June 04, 2014 6:35:07 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
muganda wrote:
Random thoughts

• Nominal GDP shows a 4.7% growth and 5.7% inflation
• Our exports are only 40% of what we import.
• Comparatively we lag Zambia and Ghana in GDP
• Kenya GDP is Agriculture (25%), followed by Trade (10%) then Transport & Communication (9%)
• In real GDP growth for 2013, Construction was 6th behind Trade, Mining, Financial, Transport & Comm, Energy.
• In real GDP growth for 2013, only Hotels & Restaurants showed a decline
• Only 2.2m wage employees out of a total 13m recorded employment

• Kenya currently has 45% of its debt as external.
• Kenya annual debt servicing stands at an approx 7% rate of outstanding
• IFAD, AfDB lead organizational lenders; China/Japan eclipsing USA/Germany as largest country lenders
• Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bills account for 1.2trn internal debt
• Kengen by far leads government guaranteed debt followed by KPA





Good analysis there, that debt has shot up to 54%...giving chills now. In those 2013 numbers, have they included the new exports (titanium)? We really have to increase our revenue base.
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
Angelica _ann
#11 Posted : Wednesday, June 04, 2014 6:49:11 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/7/2012
Posts: 11,909
aemathenge wrote:
KulaRaha wrote:

The Republic of Kenya will be represented by:
Henry Rotich - Cabinet Secretary of the National Treasury
Dr. Kamau Thugge - Permanent Secretary of the National Treasury
Dr. Geoffrey Mwau - Economic Secretary of the National Treasury
Felister Kivisi - Senior Assistant Director, Debt Management Office of the National Treasury
Gerald Arita – Director Financial Markets, Central Bank of Kenya

Will there come a point in the future when the office of the Attorney General claim that since it was not in the entourage, it shall not be held responsible for any legal penalties?

You have killed me Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
KulaRaha
#12 Posted : Wednesday, June 04, 2014 6:49:56 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/26/2007
Posts: 6,514
Mainat wrote:
Maturity will be important. If its 10yr, then 8-9% and higher as you go longer...


Rumour is tenor will be 30 years...
Business opportunities are like buses,there's always another one coming
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#13 Posted : Wednesday, June 04, 2014 10:35:52 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,221
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
Let the Perera $€£¥s come. Who doesnt want to see the NSE trade at PEs of 50 like was the case in 2006?
Centum will fly past 100,member will be at 200,simba at 250 while mpesa will flirt with the 30ssmile
I say we need this Perera like yesterday!
@SufficientlyP
Mainat
#14 Posted : Thursday, June 05, 2014 6:28:10 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/21/2006
Posts: 1,590
KulaRaha wrote:
Mainat wrote:
Maturity will be important. If its 10yr, then 8-9% and higher as you go longer...


Rumour is tenor will be 30 years...


I highly doubt. 30yr would be north of 12%
Sehemu ndio nyumba
KulaRaha
#15 Posted : Thursday, June 05, 2014 7:59:17 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/26/2007
Posts: 6,514
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
Let the Perera $€£¥s come. Who doesnt want to see the NSE trade at PEs of 50 like was the case in 2006?
Centum will fly past 100,member will be at 200,simba at 250 while mpesa will flirt with the 30ssmile
I say we need this Perera like yesterday!


Pray tell, how will all that happen by borrowing more?
Business opportunities are like buses,there's always another one coming
jerry
#16 Posted : Thursday, June 05, 2014 9:33:09 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/29/2006
Posts: 2,570
KulaRaha wrote:
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
Let the Perera $€£¥s come. Who doesnt want to see the NSE trade at PEs of 50 like was the case in 2006?
Centum will fly past 100,member will be at 200,simba at 250 while mpesa will flirt with the 30ssmile
I say we need this Perera like yesterday!


Pray tell, how will all that happen by borrowing more?

Probably @Philang... is imagining effect of borrowing huge sums of cash is akin printing money!
The opposite of courage is not cowardice, it's conformity.
muganda
#17 Posted : Thursday, June 05, 2014 10:02:43 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/15/2006
Posts: 3,905
Aly-khan Satchu calls it at between 7.0-7.5%

KulaRaha
#18 Posted : Thursday, June 05, 2014 10:10:19 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/26/2007
Posts: 6,514
7% would be a bonus for GoK, and the paper might be undersubscribed.
Business opportunities are like buses,there's always another one coming
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#19 Posted : Thursday, June 05, 2014 10:32:42 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,221
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
KulaRaha wrote:
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
Let the Perera $€£¥s come. Who doesnt want to see the NSE trade at PEs of 50 like was the case in 2006?
Centum will fly past 100,member will be at 200,simba at 250 while mpesa will flirt with the 30ssmile
I say we need this Perera like yesterday!


Pray tell, how will all that happen by borrowing more?


Very simple Bw.Kularaha.This APB 1/2014/30Yr bondsmile at say 7.5%(Wow) will distort the yield curve thus pushing the yields down. When you have low interest rates,@Jerry can rush to the bank and take out a loan hence more liquidity in the market. Low interest rates ideally should lead to high Equity prices as Fixed income securities become unattractive as an investment.
This Perera bond would also in the short run lead to a strong KES which wouldnt be an incentive for MPC to alter the interest rate upwards.
Well the story might be very different in the long run if the money is not put to good use i.e development projects. If it goes to recurrent expenditure(highly likely from this clueless duoSad we might be back to where we were in 2011,actually even worse! Inflation will be up there, and so will the interest rates. Pray the opposite happens.
But for now, lets receive the money with open arms. It will bea good time to sell your Equities and your tuplots at sky high prices and then wait for the.........then you move to Fixed Income!
@SufficientlyP
KulaRaha
#20 Posted : Thursday, June 05, 2014 11:00:18 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/26/2007
Posts: 6,514
They say they will issue USD1.5B. 600-750M will got to repaying the bank. Balance will be held as reserves by CBK, somewhere offshore in a nostro account.

How will the cost of credit go down? I suspect prices will rise as manufacturers/importers borrowing in USD at 5.5 to 7% will be re-priced by banks as min return will now be 7.5-8% (bond yield).
Business opportunities are like buses,there's always another one coming
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