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How to tell NSE has bottomed out
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murchr
#5041 Posted : Wednesday, June 04, 2014 2:18:54 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
Aguytrying wrote:
during the interest rate spike in 2011 I expected NPL s to spike in 2012. they didn't.
interest rates normalized in 2012, then now we have NPLs spiking in 2013-2014. this makes no sense. shouldn't NPLs have spike in 2012 and be normalizing now????


My theory is that the law is the cause these NPL....just a theory*
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
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hisah
#5042 Posted : Wednesday, June 04, 2014 4:05:00 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Meanwhile UG CB cuts interest rate by 50bps from 11.50 to 11% - http://af.reuters.com/ar...s/idAFKBN0EF0R420140604

@aguy - exactly my point. The ghost is appearing in 2013-2014 instead of 2012. So was citi right in their report about KE banks overstating their profits? It is this "cooking" that has made me averse banks.

@mkono - if the anti-liquidity camp wins, then equities will deflate.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Mainat
#5043 Posted : Wednesday, June 04, 2014 5:01:19 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/21/2006
Posts: 1,590
Forbearance
Sehemu ndio nyumba
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hisah
#5044 Posted : Wednesday, June 04, 2014 5:29:51 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Mainat wrote:
Forbearance

Deferment cannot be rolled over forever...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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hisah
#5045 Posted : Wednesday, June 04, 2014 6:06:32 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
If the pererabond doesn't spark the equity revival then KE getting loaded on MSCI will do the trick. Same script to that of Nigeria might be used... Which explains the jumbo trades...

Just to explain the script
- pererabond then
- NSE IPO
- then GDP rebasing
- then MSCI loading (likely)
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Angelica _ann
#5046 Posted : Wednesday, June 04, 2014 6:46:47 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/7/2012
Posts: 11,908
National rebasing looks likely by 2016
In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
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murchr
#5047 Posted : Wednesday, June 04, 2014 7:21:03 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
hisah wrote:
If the pererabond doesn't spark the equity revival then KE getting loaded on MSCI will do the trick. Same script to that of Nigeria might be used... Which explains the jumbo trades...

Just to explain the script
- pererabond then
- NSE IPO
- then GDP rebasing
- then MSCI loading (likely)


MSCI being?
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
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hisah
#5048 Posted : Wednesday, June 04, 2014 8:17:51 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
murchr wrote:
hisah wrote:
If the pererabond doesn't spark the equity revival then KE getting loaded on MSCI will do the trick. Same script to that of Nigeria might be used... Which explains the jumbo trades...

Just to explain the script
- pererabond then
- NSE IPO
- then GDP rebasing
- then MSCI loading (likely)


MSCI being?

MSCI inc upgraded Nigeria in their indices.

http://uk.reuters.com/ar...s-idUKL6N0OJ3FC20140602

$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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murchr
#5049 Posted : Wednesday, June 04, 2014 8:36:25 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
hisah wrote:
murchr wrote:
hisah wrote:
If the pererabond doesn't spark the equity revival then KE getting loaded on MSCI will do the trick. Same script to that of Nigeria might be used... Which explains the jumbo trades...

Just to explain the script
- pererabond then
- NSE IPO
- then GDP rebasing
- then MSCI loading (likely)


MSCI being?

MSCI inc upgraded Nigeria in their indices.

http://uk.reuters.com/ar...s-idUKL6N0OJ3FC20140602



Muchas gracias
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
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Mainat
#5050 Posted : Thursday, June 05, 2014 6:29:59 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/21/2006
Posts: 1,590
hisah wrote:
Mainat wrote:
Forbearance

Deferment cannot be rolled over forever...

Kicking the can down the street is the new economic paradigm.
Same script in Europe hence why RBS won't be better anytime soon
Sehemu ndio nyumba
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mnandii
#5051 Posted : Thursday, June 05, 2014 7:12:54 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
Mainat wrote:
hisah wrote:
Mainat wrote:
Forbearance

Deferment cannot be rolled over forever...

Kicking the can down the street is the new economic paradigm.
Same script in Europe hence why RBS won't be better anytime soon

Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#5052 Posted : Thursday, June 05, 2014 7:14:31 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
mnandii wrote:
Mainat wrote:
hisah wrote:
Mainat wrote:
Forbearance

Deferment cannot be rolled over forever...

Kicking the can down the street is the new economic paradigm.
Same script in Europe hence why RBS won't be better anytime soon


And many other institutions for that matter. T's only a matter of time.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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hisah
#5053 Posted : Thursday, June 05, 2014 6:09:11 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
@aguy - look at this cartoon though you are not a fan smile
It is bending lower...

$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Aguytrying
#5054 Posted : Friday, June 06, 2014 9:13:50 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
hisah wrote:
@aguy - look at this cartoon though you are not a fan smile
It is bending lower...



I'm am a fan. cartoons can't be underestimated nowadays. even the name cartoon has been dropped in favour of charts
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#5055 Posted : Friday, June 06, 2014 12:16:00 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,220
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
Aguytrying wrote:
hisah wrote:
@aguy - look at this cartoon though you are not a fan smile
It is bending lower...



I'm am a fan. cartoons can't be underestimated nowadays. even the name cartoon has been dropped in favour of charts

smile
@SufficientlyP
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Richie rich
#5056 Posted : Friday, June 06, 2014 8:00:47 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 9/29/2012
Posts: 79
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
hisah wrote:
@aguy - look at this cartoon though you are not a fan smile
It is bending lower...



I'm am a fan. cartoons can't be underestimated nowadays. even the name cartoon has been dropped in favour of charts

smile

Sad niko giza kwa cartoon pliz help
The God of the day is still God in the night.
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whiteowl
#5057 Posted : Saturday, June 07, 2014 12:38:43 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/16/2014
Posts: 1,420
Location: Bohemian Grove
Richie rich wrote:
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
hisah wrote:
@aguy - look at this cartoon though you are not a fan smile
It is bending lower...



I'm am a fan. cartoons can't be underestimated nowadays. even the name cartoon has been dropped in favour of charts

smile

Sad niko giza kwa cartoon pliz help

to me it looks like it's gonna have a serious nosedive
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mwekez@ji
#5058 Posted : Saturday, June 07, 2014 12:34:04 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
murchr wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
during the interest rate spike in 2011 I expected NPL s to spike in 2012. they didn't.
interest rates normalized in 2012, then now we have NPLs spiking in 2013-2014. this makes no sense. shouldn't NPLs have spike in 2012 and be normalizing now????


My theory is that the law is the cause these NPL....just a theory*


... and the industry NPL ratio of 5.2% in 2013 up from 4.7% in 2012 is within acceptable range (NPLs have to happen in lending business)

This is a good read >>> Bank Supervision Annual Report 2013 https://centralbank.go.ke/images...al%20Reports/2013BSD.pdf
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murchr
#5059 Posted : Friday, June 13, 2014 3:01:24 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
Very boring markets....everywhere
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
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hisah
#5060 Posted : Friday, June 13, 2014 9:25:34 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
murchr wrote:
Very boring markets....everywhere

Sideways, indecision, boring. But lull usually warn of sharp turns ahead i.e. big bull or big selloff.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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