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How to tell NSE has bottomed out
Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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wanyee wrote:KORCH will stagnate at 21 bob.. WHY? Its already up 186% "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: User Joined: 1/20/2014 Posts: 3,528
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Any suggestions (2 counters only) where i can throw in some 0.5m for about 2 years. Formal education will make you a living. Self-education will make you a fortune - Jim Rohn.
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Rank: Member Joined: 8/4/2012 Posts: 155 Location: Kenya
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Othelo wrote:Any suggestions (2 counters only) where i can throw in some 0.5m for about 2 years. CFC and KK If you don't want to go to plan B have a good plan A.
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/16/2006 Posts: 228
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kk and kplc “I don’t regret the things I’ve done, I regret the things I didn’t do when I had the chance.”
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 4/16/2014 Posts: 1,420 Location: Bohemian Grove
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when buy recos disappear and this becomes one of the most active threads, things are headed south.
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Rank: Member Joined: 5/14/2014 Posts: 288 Location: nairobi
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. I find satisfaction in owning great business,not trading them
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,182 Location: nairobi
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Unfortunately the political climate is becoming noisy like we are approaching an election which is not the case,if the trend continues I forsee a very depressed market nearing 2017 or earlier with very disatisfied and angry mps and governers acrossboard "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: User Joined: 1/20/2014 Posts: 3,528
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mlennyma wrote:Unfortunately the political climate is becoming noisy like we are approaching an election which is not the case,if the trend continues I forsee a very depressed market nearing 2017 or earlier with very disatisfied and angry mps and governers acrossboard sometimes you wonder why cant these politicians take a chillpill for like 3 years before bringing back kelele at end of 2016! Formal education will make you a living. Self-education will make you a fortune - Jim Rohn.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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24yr NSE20 chart all the way from the 90s. @mnandii @sparkly and @deal and other cartoon followers, have you guys come across this cartoon? Parabolic back in 93 - 94 spiked to 5000 levels. That was pure madness and the rejection (selloff) for 8yrs says so. NSE20 has always been unable to shake off 5000 resistance for more than 2 decades!? Everytime 5000 has been tested a large correction pops up.  But with TA levels pointed out, the long term (LT) cartoon shows a developing ascending triangle  If this LT cartoon forecast is right, the next rally after 5000 (very stubborn) resistance breaks that breakout will definitely be a multi year rally.  $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/10/2010 Posts: 1,001 Location: River Road
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@hisah during the parabolic in 1993-94(goldenberg era), inflation was almost 50%, 90 day tbill was yielding 60%, unga shares were 960/=. The good times came to an end during the mass-action of 1997, then el-nino hit and then la-nina and IMHO sell-off for 8 years was caused by the tightening of liquidity for 8 years. Actually David Ndii said they had to fire the CBK governor in 2003 to allow for monetary easing
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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mkonomtupu wrote:@hisah during the parabolic in 1993-94(goldenberg era), inflation was almost 50%, 90 day tbill was yielding 60%, unga shares were 960/=. The good times came to an end during the mass-action of 1997, then el-nino hit and then la-nina and IMHO sell-off for 8 years was caused by the tightening of liquidity for 8 years. Actually David Ndii said they had to fire the CBK governor in 2003 to allow for monetary easing So is the next parabolic coming up coz of eurobond...
Scan has been churning vols since last month. Today 11M shares have trade with turnover clocking 0.5B. Keeping track of the counters with jumbo vols.$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Member Joined: 6/15/2013 Posts: 301
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@hisah....cartoon shows how pessimistic market was during KANU era between 94-02.Continuos sell offs/decline with no recovery(or was it global). Kweli things were very bad then. After 02 corrections have been followed by recovery....
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,220 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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mulla wrote:@hisah....cartoon shows how pessimistic market was during KANU era between 94-02.Continuos sell offs/decline with no recovery(or was it global). Kweli things were very bad then. After 02 corrections have been followed by recovery.... It wasnt just in the Stock Market. By the way, i still have a price list for June 2001 showing KCB with a closing price of KES.8.50. The stock would later spilt 10 times in 2007 and is now priced at KES.48.25, or KES.482.50 pre split. Never mind the 3 rights issues since that time. Now do the math. Even in real estate, it was the same story. In most areas within the Greater Nairobi, land value has appreciated atleast 20 times. @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/10/2010 Posts: 1,001 Location: River Road
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:mulla wrote:@hisah....cartoon shows how pessimistic market was during KANU era between 94-02.Continuos sell offs/decline with no recovery(or was it global). Kweli things were very bad then. After 02 corrections have been followed by recovery.... It wasnt just in the Stock Market. By the way, i still have a price list for June 2001 showing KCB with a closing price of KES.8.50. The stock would later spilt 10 times in 2007 and is now priced at KES.48.25, or KES.482.50 pre split. Never mind the 3 rights issues since that time. Now do the math. Even in real estate, it was the same story. In most areas within the Greater Nairobi, land value has appreciated atleast 20 times. That's what happens when you tighten liquidity, removing the punch bowl from the party, actually the only thing NARC did was to increase money supply by 8% per year, lower the cash ratio from 18% and the rest was history. Even with the added money supply the biggest complaint for kenyans is the high cost of living
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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mkonomtupu wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:mulla wrote:@hisah....cartoon shows how pessimistic market was during KANU era between 94-02.Continuos sell offs/decline with no recovery(or was it global). Kweli things were very bad then. After 02 corrections have been followed by recovery.... It wasnt just in the Stock Market. By the way, i still have a price list for June 2001 showing KCB with a closing price of KES.8.50. The stock would later spilt 10 times in 2007 and is now priced at KES.48.25, or KES.482.50 pre split. Never mind the 3 rights issues since that time. Now do the math. Even in real estate, it was the same story. In most areas within the Greater Nairobi, land value has appreciated atleast 20 times. That's what happens when you tighten liquidity, removing the punch bowl from the party, actually the only thing NARC did was to increase money supply by 8% per year, lower the cash ratio from 18% and the rest was history. Even with the added money supply the biggest complaint for kenyans is the high cost of living So to get another round of money supply flood taps the current CB will be kicked out going by history since current gok wants liquidity come what... Is this why someone is facing some lawsuits as well as debates on trimming the CB's term? Very interesting...$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: User Joined: 1/20/2014 Posts: 3,528
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Confirms Mwai was a true economist. Formal education will make you a living. Self-education will make you a fortune - Jim Rohn.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/21/2006 Posts: 1,590
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Dynamic duo=clueless duo on matters economy. When you see Tata saying they can't keep Magadi open... Lots of banks adjusting their npls (CFC as an example). Stuff has to come out of the wash at some point. Figures never lie. Sehemu ndio nyumba
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 6/23/2011 Posts: 1,740 Location: Nairobi
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Saw the story, cost of power 100M a month !!!!. This can be cheaper for sure...
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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during the interest rate spike in 2011 I expected NPL s to spike in 2012. they didn't. interest rates normalized in 2012, then now we have NPLs spiking in 2013-2014. this makes no sense. shouldn't NPLs have spike in 2012 and be normalizing now???? The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/10/2010 Posts: 1,001 Location: River Road
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hisah wrote:mkonomtupu wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:mulla wrote:@hisah....cartoon shows how pessimistic market was during KANU era between 94-02.Continuos sell offs/decline with no recovery(or was it global). Kweli things were very bad then. After 02 corrections have been followed by recovery.... It wasnt just in the Stock Market. By the way, i still have a price list for June 2001 showing KCB with a closing price of KES.8.50. The stock would later spilt 10 times in 2007 and is now priced at KES.48.25, or KES.482.50 pre split. Never mind the 3 rights issues since that time. Now do the math. Even in real estate, it was the same story. In most areas within the Greater Nairobi, land value has appreciated atleast 20 times. That's what happens when you tighten liquidity, removing the punch bowl from the party, actually the only thing NARC did was to increase money supply by 8% per year, lower the cash ratio from 18% and the rest was history. Even with the added money supply the biggest complaint for kenyans is the high cost of living So to get another round of money supply flood taps the current CB will be kicked out going by history since current gok wants liquidity come what... Is this why someone is facing some lawsuits as well as debates on trimming the CB's term? Very interesting... @hisah, the battle is still being fought at treasury between the "bean counters" who want austerity and the "expansionists" who want cheaper rates. In my view the Eurobond may only cause a ripple and not a wave. GoK is putting out a 1.8 trillion budget while the KRA taxes come to 1 trillion. Eurobond would work if the there is fiscal discipline and efforts to cut down the budget deficit. The only way to cut down the deficit is to raise taxes(maybe even capital gains tax) which is what I expect on the 12th June budget statement. The earliest you can feel the effect of liquidity maybe 2016
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