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Realities of Forex Investment
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mnandii
#2631 Posted : Saturday, May 24, 2014 5:15:48 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
USDJPY



In a previous post I may have spoken too early calling for a short in the $YEN pair Sad but the opportunity should be at hand now.

From the 103.01 high the pair appears to have also traced out a leading diagonal to the 100.81 low. As expected, the correction has been quick slightly exceeding the 50% level at 101.91. Wave [A] is impulsive and [C] is an ending diagonal. For all intents and purposes wave ii, the correction for wave i (103.01 to 100.81), is complete at 102.00 level.

The outlook for next week is a BIG sharp drop ( there is likelihood for a gap down). It's possible for a move to 102.17 (the 61.8% retracement of wave i) also, but no more higher than that.

STRATEGY:

$YEN should be shorted at current levels i.e 102.00s. Depending on the gap, if it appears on Monday, the Stop Loss level shl'd be at 102.20 level. A big down move is expected.





Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#2632 Posted : Saturday, May 24, 2014 5:34:37 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
GBP$



Another currency pair at a nice juncture.

Wave [3] is developing. So far we have a pair of developing impulse waves. i.e waves 1,2 and waves [i], [ii].

Wave i from the 1.6875 high to 1.6812 low is an impulse (It can be seen better if you look at it in 30 min Time Frame).

Wave ii is underway and may reach 1.6851 level ( being 61.8% of wave i ).

Key level is 1.6875 which should not be exceeded upward.

STRATEGY:
Sell the pair. Your Stop Loss is at 1.6875. A significant move down is expected.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#2633 Posted : Saturday, May 24, 2014 5:54:32 PM
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Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
mnandii wrote:
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
NFPs positive figure of 288k new jobs vs 192k in March and against a consensus of 210 will add impetus to a further weakening of the EUR$ pair from its March 3966 high. I'm positioning for a short once the dust settles. Aiming to bail at 3600 or thereabouts, about 250 or so pips.


Agreed. EUR$ sure looks to a big fall coming week.

@Mnandii, 3600 broken down as we speak, we should be at 3600 levels on or before June 5th when the next NFPs come insmile

smile
Beautiful.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#2634 Posted : Tuesday, May 27, 2014 7:35:47 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
mnandii wrote:
GBP$





UPDATE:

On GBP$ we were sightly in error about the labelling. Wave [i] seems to have been a leading diagonal as shown. The retracement, i.e wave [ii], failed at the 61.8% level. More downside expected.
It is also possible that the drop from 1.6920 high to current levels (1.6794) COULD be a leading diagonal. Any sharp rise in GBP$ at this point would confirm that this second scenario is the case. All the best.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#2635 Posted : Tuesday, May 27, 2014 8:58:06 PM
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Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
USDJPY close to the 102.17 area and with divergence.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#2636 Posted : Wednesday, May 28, 2014 2:06:10 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
mnandii wrote:
USDJPY close to the 102.17 area and with divergence.



101.68 level is key. If broken downside our bearish view will be confirmed.

Note that wave [A] = wave [C] at 81 pips each.

NB: $JPY 4 HR chart.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#2637 Posted : Wednesday, May 28, 2014 2:15:56 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
GBP$ still falling as expected.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#2638 Posted : Wednesday, May 28, 2014 2:30:30 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
mnandii wrote:
GBP$ still falling as expected.



Minimum target for wave (iii) is 1.6654 being 1.618 X wave (i).
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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TNT
#2639 Posted : Wednesday, May 28, 2014 4:42:09 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 5/22/2009
Posts: 206
mnandii wrote:
mnandii wrote:
GBP$ still falling as expected.



Minimum target for wave (iii) is 1.6654 being 1.618 X wave (i).


Got in at 1.6811. Almost +90 pips now. I hope it goes as low as your analysis forecast.
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TNT
#2640 Posted : Thursday, May 29, 2014 7:34:18 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 5/22/2009
Posts: 206
@mnandii: What are your thoughts on a AU long this morning? Planning to exit the trade by the end of the day, depending on price action.
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