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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
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mnandii
#41 Posted : Tuesday, April 01, 2014 4:58:50 PM
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Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
Angelica _ann wrote:
Ati a correction to 13 bob, you will kill some of us! :smile -) smile

Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
The waves state that. But we'll all be watching the market so no surprises ehh.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#42 Posted : Tuesday, April 01, 2014 5:00:29 PM
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Anyway, I've also read some fundamental analyses here in wazua that state that the market is overpriced.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#43 Posted : Monday, April 14, 2014 6:47:46 PM
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Safcom Share Price.


Appears like Safcom is making an 'expanded flat'.

So we have wave 'A' and an incomplete wave 'B' i.e Wave 'B' has the components wave 'a', wave 'b' and an impulsive wave 'c' in progress.

In flats, wave 'B' usually equal [Wave 'A' X 1.382]

So, [12.80-10.60] X 1.382 = 3.04

Adding 3.04 to the low of wave 'A' gives:

3.04 + 10.60 = 13.64

So I expect Safcom to touch 13.64 level before turning strongly down.



Good luck in your trading.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Metasploit
#44 Posted : Tuesday, April 15, 2014 10:33:42 AM
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Joined: 3/26/2012
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Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
mnandii wrote:
Safcom Share Price.


Appears like Safcom is making an 'expanded flat'.

So we have wave 'A' and an incomplete wave 'B' i.e Wave 'B' has the components wave 'a', wave 'b' and an impulsive wave 'c' in progress.

In flats, wave 'B' usually equal [Wave 'A' X 1.382]

So, [12.80-10.60] X 1.382 = 3.04

Adding 3.04 to the low of wave 'A' gives:

3.04 + 10.60 = 13.64

So I expect Safcom to touch 13.64 level before turning strongly down.



Good luck in your trading.


Serious accumulation in Safaricom at 12.75-13. No serious supply proping up at 13-13.5

Profit taking point at least from 14.2-14.5

“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
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mnandii
#45 Posted : Wednesday, April 23, 2014 5:23:40 PM
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mnandii wrote:
Safcom Share Price.

Appears like Safcom is making an 'expanded flat'.

So we have wave 'A' and an incomplete wave 'B' i.e Wave 'B' has the components wave 'a', wave 'b' and an impulsive wave 'c' in progress.

In flats, wave 'B' usually equal [Wave 'A' X 1.382]

So, [12.80-10.60] X 1.382 = 3.04

Adding 3.04 to the low of wave 'A' gives:

3.04 + 10.60 = 13.64

So I expect Safcom to touch 13.64 level before turning strongly down.

Good luck in your trading.

Appears like Safcom price hit the 1.236 multiple of wave 'A' and turned.
i.e [12.80 - 10.60] X 1.236 = 2.72

2.72 + 10.60 = 13.32

Safcom hit 13.40 and turned lower. I don't expect any more highs above 13.40 going forward.



Quote:
In a regular flat correction, waves A, B and C are, of course, approximately equal. In an expanded flat correction, wave C is usually 1.618 times the length of wave A. Often wave C will terminate beyond the end of wave A by .618 times the length of wave A. Each of these tendencies are illustrated in Figure 35. In rare cases, wave C is 2.618 times the length of wave A. Wave B in an expanded flat is sometimes 1.236 or 1.382 times the length of wave A.



Elliott Wave Basics
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#46 Posted : Sunday, May 25, 2014 8:58:43 AM
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KENYA RE


So the Kenya Re high at 20.75 on 20 Jan 2014 was a fifth wave. Subsequently, the share price dropped to 17.80 to make wave A. It then rose to 21 in a three wave move consisting of wave [a], [ b ] and [c] which appears to be a zigzag formation. The expectation is for a drop below 17.80 level in the coming days.

Fibonacci
Wave A = (20.75-17.80) = 2.95
Wave B = (21.00-17.80) = 3.20
Wave A and B are the first legs of an expanded flat.
The 'B' wave of a flat usually equal 1.236 or 1.382 of wave 'A'.

So we multiply wave A by 1.236 and 1.382 and add the result to 17.80 (the end of wave A) to find the end of wave B.

First, using 1.236:
2.95 X 1.236 = 3.65
3.65 + 17.80 = 21.45

Then, using 1.382:
2.95 X 1.382 = 4.08
4.08 + 17.80 = 21.88

The share price topped at 21.00 and turned lower. So wave B moved to within the Fib target of 21.45 being wave A X 1.236.

Wave B is composed of waves [a], [b], and [c].

We also look for Fib relationships. Being a zigzag, wave [c] was expected to be equal wave [a], OR be 1.618 X wave [a].

Wave [a] = (20.25 - 17.80) = 2.45
Wave [c] = (21.00 - 18.10) = 2.90
So, our wave [c] is approximately equal to wave [a].

It is noteworthy that after hitting 21.00 the share price dropped sharply. this appears to be the first leg of the impulse wave down and is analysed below.
SUMMARY:
Kenya Re share price, as had been earlier suggested, should drop in the coming weeks.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#47 Posted : Sunday, May 25, 2014 9:47:07 AM
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Posts: 2,304
Kenya Re Cont..



The drop from 21.00 to 18.60 appears to be the first impulse wave down forming wave [i]. It was subsequently corrected by wave [ii] in a three wave move consisting of waves [a], [ b ] and [c]. From the 20.50 high down appears to be a leading diagonal.

The expectation is for Kenya Re to move up but fail to reach 20.50 level. Then the share price should drop sharply.

Fib analysis of wave [ii].
Wave [ii] is a zigzag with legs [a], [ b ] and [c].
In a zigzag, the 'C' wave usually equals wave 'A' or is 1.618 x wave 'A'.

Wave [a] = (20.00 - 18.60) = 1.40
Wave [c] = (20.50 - 19.05) = 1.45
So wave [c] equals wave [a].

Also 2nd waves usually retrace 61.8% of the first wave. 78.6% retracement is also a usual Fibonacci target for 2nd waves.

Wave [i] = (21.00 -18.60) = 2.40
wave [ii] = (20.50 -18.60) = 1.90

61.8% of wave [i] = 1.48
78.6% of wave [i] = 1.89
Alas! Wave [ii] retraced EXACTLY 78.6% of wave [i].
smile smile smile

Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#48 Posted : Sunday, May 25, 2014 9:50:57 AM
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Safcom analysis coming presently. All the best.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#49 Posted : Sunday, May 25, 2014 12:13:40 PM
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Joined: 10/11/2006
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Safaricom is showing the first legs of a leading diagonal also. Lower prices are expected into the coming week.

It's quite interesting that ever since the 13.40 high was made on 16th April before the announcement of the great results, the price has struggled up but has not broken the level. Goes on to show that prices of financial instruments do not depend on external factors e.g financial statements. Markets do go up on seemingly 'bad news' and trend lower on 'good news'.

Price depends on social mood. Positive social mood creates the daring nature in people and drive prices up. Likewise, negative social mood makes people conservative ( i.e they want to 'save' more and they avoid speculative ventures as a result) leading to prices trending down.

Good luck in your trading.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#50 Posted : Wednesday, May 28, 2014 2:57:38 AM
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Negative Social Mood = Falling Prices.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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subaru
#51 Posted : Wednesday, May 28, 2014 3:22:52 AM
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mnandii wrote:
Negative Social Mood = Falling Prices.



Negative Social Mood = Falling Prices = bargain hunting for those left by some mbuses
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hisah
#52 Posted : Wednesday, May 28, 2014 6:04:53 AM
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@mnandii - have you spotted this NSE20 triangle?



Tired legs before the drop...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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mnandii
#53 Posted : Wednesday, May 28, 2014 1:58:03 PM
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hisah wrote:
@mnandii - have you spotted this NSE20 triangle?



Tired legs before the drop...


smile
@hisah. Yours is a much clearer chart. Kudos. When the moves complete it will be epic.
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King G
#54 Posted : Wednesday, May 28, 2014 1:59:59 PM
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mnandii wrote:
hisah wrote:
@mnandii - have you spotted this NSE20 triangle?



Tired legs before the drop...


smile
@hisah. Yours is a much clearer chart. Kudos. When the moves complete it will be epic.

Looks like June - September will be tricky for speculators!
Thieves
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mnandii
#55 Posted : Saturday, July 19, 2014 10:37:08 AM
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MUMIAS SUGAR CO.

-RSI showing divergence.
-Price action showing a completed wave pattern.

Mumias should start rising soon.
NB: The all-time low of 2.40 should not be breached.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#56 Posted : Saturday, July 19, 2014 10:48:01 AM
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For the Mumias sugar chart above:
Golden Ratio relationships,

-Wave (A) at 37 is approximately equal to wave (C) at 39.45.
-Wave (B) retraced 50% of wave (A).
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Gordon Gekko
#57 Posted : Saturday, July 19, 2014 10:50:48 AM
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English please, buy, hold or sell? Hii Elliot mingi just reminds me of bread.
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mnandii
#58 Posted : Saturday, July 19, 2014 10:52:21 AM
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Gordon Gekko wrote:
English please, buy, hold or sell? Hii Elliot mingi just reminds me of bread.

smile

Buy!
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#59 Posted : Saturday, July 19, 2014 10:58:05 AM
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mnandii wrote:
Gordon Gekko wrote:
English please, buy, hold or sell? Hii Elliot mingi just reminds me of bread.

smile

Buy!

Guys are waiting for prices below 2.55. However, my analysis suggests that if Mumias goes below 2.40 then sub 2 bob will be very likely. In other words ikienda chini ya 2.40 then you can buy the share near zero bob. Seriously!
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Othelo
#60 Posted : Saturday, July 19, 2014 11:37:54 AM
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Gordon Gekko - i have laughed my self silly

mnandii - thanks for the advice
Formal education will make you a living. Self-education will make you a fortune - Jim Rohn.
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