Wazua
»
Investor
»
Economy
»
Kenya Economy Watch
Rank: Elder Joined: 4/22/2010 Posts: 11,522 Location: Nairobi
|
poundfoolish wrote:Repercussions? The Sh8b question as banks bail out Government to help it repay loan Link: http://goo.gl/J9JX9M
Dicey affair,I am positive that the eurobond uptake will be good,short of that we,l be in for a bumpy ride... possunt quia posse videntur
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/26/2007 Posts: 6,514
|
What price will it go for? 9%? Business opportunities are like buses,there's always another one coming
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 4/22/2010 Posts: 11,522 Location: Nairobi
|
KulaRaha wrote:What price will it go for? 9%? I,l still stick to my 7.25% to 7.75% that i quoted in the dummy book running thread... possunt quia posse videntur
|
|
|
Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
|
maka wrote:KulaRaha wrote:What price will it go for? 9%? I,l still stick to my 7.25% to 7.75% that i quoted in the dummy book running thread... 7.5% should be max. Above that it doesn't make sense for KE to float the bond.$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
|
|
|
Rank: User Joined: 1/20/2014 Posts: 3,528
|
hisah wrote:maka wrote:KulaRaha wrote:What price will it go for? 9%? I,l still stick to my 7.25% to 7.75% that i quoted in the dummy book running thread... 7.5% should be max. Above that it doesn't make sense for KE to float the bond. How did it move from about 4.5% to 7.5% Formal education will make you a living. Self-education will make you a fortune - Jim Rohn.
|
|
|
Rank: Member Joined: 9/29/2010 Posts: 679 Location: nairobi
|
Othelo wrote:hisah wrote:maka wrote:KulaRaha wrote:What price will it go for? 9%? I,l still stick to my 7.25% to 7.75% that i quoted in the dummy book running thread... 7.5% should be max. Above that it doesn't make sense for KE to float the bond. How did it move from about 4.5% to 7.5% this is a very good question given that the syndicated loan is @ 4.5
|
|
|
Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
|
kizee1 wrote:Othelo wrote:hisah wrote:maka wrote:KulaRaha wrote:What price will it go for? 9%? I,l still stick to my 7.25% to 7.75% that i quoted in the dummy book running thread... 7.5% should be max. Above that it doesn't make sense for KE to float the bond. How did it move from about 4.5% to 7.5% this is a very good question given that the syndicated loan is @ 4.5 A lot has changed. Fed tapering, KE negative terror scene publicity, rolling over the May pay for the syndicate loan etc. Hard for KE to get a rate below 6% if you compare it with the latest issues from Ghana and Nigeria or Gabon. Bond sharks will want higher yields to price in the current status, which KE can't call the shots from its current position.
**4.5% will be a miracle**
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
|
|
|
Rank: Member Joined: 3/10/2008 Posts: 301 Location: Abu Dhabi
|
If the syndication banks had priced in a spread of 475bps, and current 10Y swaps are at 2.60%, 7% on the 10Y note would be the ballpark (bearing in mind the syndicate banks "agree" jointly on how wide the spread can be).
Zambia (similar credit rating as KE), last month issued $1b @ 8.625% (vs demand of $ 4.25B)
|
|
|
Rank: Member Joined: 9/29/2010 Posts: 679 Location: nairobi
|
hisah wrote:kizee1 wrote:Othelo wrote:hisah wrote:maka wrote:KulaRaha wrote:What price will it go for? 9%? I,l still stick to my 7.25% to 7.75% that i quoted in the dummy book running thread... 7.5% should be max. Above that it doesn't make sense for KE to float the bond. How did it move from about 4.5% to 7.5% this is a very good question given that the syndicated loan is @ 4.5 A lot has changed. Fed tapering, KE negative terror scene publicity, rolling over the May pay for the syndicate loan etc. Hard for KE to get a rate below 6% if you compare it with the latest issues from Ghana and Nigeria or Gabon. Bond sharks will want higher yields to price in the current status, which KE can't call the shots from its current position.
**4.5% will be a miracle**
some parties were willing to roll this over @ 4.5,even at the time of this borrowing likes of ghana were borrowing at 7/8 percent, what is tenor of this eurobond anyway
|
|
|
Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/10/2010 Posts: 1,001 Location: River Road
|
The Eurobond didn't help Ghana and Zambia Quote:African economies are securing new funds through resource finds or dollar bonds but many governments face questions over how they use the money and risk being punished by international capital markets.
Read the original article on Theafricareport.com : Ghana, Zambia spending spree faces punishment by markets | West Africa
Follow us: @theafricareport on Twitter | theafricareport on Facebook
|
|
|
Rank: Member Joined: 9/29/2010 Posts: 679 Location: nairobi
|
mkonomtupu wrote:The Eurobond didn't help Ghana and Zambia Quote:African economies are securing new funds through resource finds or dollar bonds but many governments face questions over how they use the money and risk being punished by international capital markets.
Read the original article on Theafricareport.com : Ghana, Zambia spending spree faces punishment by markets | West Africa
Follow us: @theafricareport on Twitter | theafricareport on Facebook and wont help us either,but the government claims they must borrow so as to not cause local rates to raise, a very silly argument
|
|
|
Rank: User Joined: 1/20/2014 Posts: 3,528
|
kizee1 wrote:mkonomtupu wrote:The Eurobond didn't help Ghana and Zambia Quote:African economies are securing new funds through resource finds or dollar bonds but many governments face questions over how they use the money and risk being punished by international capital markets.
Read the original article on Theafricareport.com : Ghana, Zambia spending spree faces punishment by markets | West Africa
Follow us: @theafricareport on Twitter | theafricareport on Facebook and wont help us either,but the government claims they must borrow so as to not cause local rates to raise, a very silly argument The CS looks Serious .... from the article he says "Laws on managing revenue from resources have to be in place before you start exploiting them," Kenyan Finance Minister Henry Rotich said during the AfDB meeting, adding that Kenya was enacting measures to prevent petroleum revenues being used for items such as public sector wages. Formal education will make you a living. Self-education will make you a fortune - Jim Rohn.
|
|
|
Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
|
kizee1 wrote:hisah wrote:kizee1 wrote:Othelo wrote:hisah wrote:maka wrote:KulaRaha wrote:What price will it go for? 9%? I,l still stick to my 7.25% to 7.75% that i quoted in the dummy book running thread... 7.5% should be max. Above that it doesn't make sense for KE to float the bond. How did it move from about 4.5% to 7.5% this is a very good question given that the syndicated loan is @ 4.5 A lot has changed. Fed tapering, KE negative terror scene publicity, rolling over the May pay for the syndicate loan etc. Hard for KE to get a rate below 6% if you compare it with the latest issues from Ghana and Nigeria or Gabon. Bond sharks will want higher yields to price in the current status, which KE can't call the shots from its current position.
**4.5% will be a miracle**
some parties were willing to roll this over @ 4.5,even at the time of this borrowing likes of ghana were borrowing at 7/8 percent, what is tenor of this eurobond anyway No clue about the tenor. What's with the secrecy...
The million dollar query I've always held is why does KE want to float a eurobond now with all the USD tapering and bond markets leaking globally? Not a conducive environment just like floating an IPO in a bear market...$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 4/22/2010 Posts: 11,522 Location: Nairobi
|
hisah wrote:kizee1 wrote:hisah wrote:kizee1 wrote:Othelo wrote:hisah wrote:maka wrote:KulaRaha wrote:What price will it go for? 9%? I,l still stick to my 7.25% to 7.75% that i quoted in the dummy book running thread... 7.5% should be max. Above that it doesn't make sense for KE to float the bond. How did it move from about 4.5% to 7.5% this is a very good question given that the syndicated loan is @ 4.5 A lot has changed. Fed tapering, KE negative terror scene publicity, rolling over the May pay for the syndicate loan etc. Hard for KE to get a rate below 6% if you compare it with the latest issues from Ghana and Nigeria or Gabon. Bond sharks will want higher yields to price in the current status, which KE can't call the shots from its current position.
**4.5% will be a miracle**
some parties were willing to roll this over @ 4.5,even at the time of this borrowing likes of ghana were borrowing at 7/8 percent, what is tenor of this eurobond anyway No clue about the tenor. What's with the secrecy...
The million dollar query I've always held is why does KE want to float a eurobond now with all the USD tapering and bond markets leaking globally? Not a conducive environment just like floating an IPO in a bear market... Thought the tenor is 10 years... possunt quia posse videntur
|
|
|
Rank: Member Joined: 9/29/2010 Posts: 679 Location: nairobi
|
Othelo wrote:kizee1 wrote:mkonomtupu wrote:The Eurobond didn't help Ghana and Zambia Quote:African economies are securing new funds through resource finds or dollar bonds but many governments face questions over how they use the money and risk being punished by international capital markets.
Read the original article on Theafricareport.com : Ghana, Zambia spending spree faces punishment by markets | West Africa
Follow us: @theafricareport on Twitter | theafricareport on Facebook and wont help us either,but the government claims they must borrow so as to not cause local rates to raise, a very silly argument The CS looks Serious .... from the article he says "Laws on managing revenue from resources have to be in place before you start exploiting them," Kenyan Finance Minister Henry Rotich said during the AfDB meeting, adding that Kenya was enacting measures to prevent petroleum revenues being used for items such as public sector wages. lol so the revenues will be used for? setting up a sovereign wealth fund to further enrich western investment bankers??
|
|
|
Rank: New-farer Joined: 4/29/2014 Posts: 15 Location: Nairobi
|
These terror attacks will do a lot of harm to our economy
|
|
|
Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
|
Going by this article seems the eurobond rate will be north of 8% and interest earned will be tax free to boot! Tax freebie to rope in buyers and also ensures a pressure cooker bid fest to avoid a poor float... http://www.businessdaily...-/15epe4cz/-/index.html
Meanwhile A.M Best rates KE at CRT-5 (highest risk rating for insurers). How "timely" for the eurobond float... I don't see how the rate will be less than 8%. KES will have to behave vs major fx ccys. Otherwise too much KES weaking will make the interest payments on foreign loans balloon badly. I can see inflation spiked almost 100bps May to 7.30%. KE macroecon facing strong headwinds... $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
|
|
|
Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
|
Tea prices hit six-year low Oh dear KES... Illiquid agri stocks will handcuff panic sellers. I can see a period where agri stocks will be carrying the most hated banner... Those bargains will be very welcome  $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
|
|
|
Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
|
I am very concerned with what I see in the FX market.  Eurobond is floating but FX market is not convinced. Treasury reads a funny budget that they expect revenues to come in with GDP expanding above 5% yet tourism and agri sectors are taking it in the chin with industrials on a slowdown! Weak KES with lofty NSE is not sustainable. If KES scales above 95, NSE will be sub 4500. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
|
|
|
Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
|
It's Aug 2014, the eurobond was a success and with sizable oversubscription. But alas! KES is still heading south... Why? Loans have suddenly become available as banks start dishing out loans since the domestic bond market has dried up thanks to eurobond. Tbills rates too start dipping. Too much money on the table so banks forced to lend. Too small a borrowers' pool so banks fight each other to lend forcing rates down. But their is a curveball... All the lending leads to more consumerism, so inflation keeps ticking as the current account deficit widens. Inflation is already at 7.3%. Globally oil prices will start causing pain as oil inflation bites. More current account bleeding... Exports and tourism on the back foot means less fx earned. The macroecon on KE this yr is as tricky as it gets. Too much liquidity, inflation causes chaos. Too little liquidity, the econ slumps, more job losses and NPLs balloon... So the fin markets are trying to see through the fog which way to follow. #MigraineCentral $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
|
|
|
Wazua
»
Investor
»
Economy
»
Kenya Economy Watch
Forum Jump
You cannot post new topics in this forum.
You cannot reply to topics in this forum.
You cannot delete your posts in this forum.
You cannot edit your posts in this forum.
You cannot create polls in this forum.
You cannot vote in polls in this forum.
|