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Long Term Buys starting 2014
nashx
#1 Posted : Friday, May 16, 2014 1:28:54 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/28/2014
Posts: 188
Location: Nairobi
Taking into account the current market prices, I did an analysis of undervalued shares that I want to invest in based on purely PE. See below in order of preference:

No Company PE EPS Price
1 Cargen 3.55 9.45 33.50
2 Kengen 4.60 2.39 11.05
3 KenyaRe 4.65 4.29 19.95
4 EAPC 4.70 19.73 92.60
5 KPLC 6.70 2.20 14.85
6 Longhorn 8.10 1.60 13.00
7 PAFR 9.70 13.05 126.00
8 NIC 9.80 6.12 60.00
9 Uchumi 9.80 1.35 13.20
10 Centum 10.60 3.77 40.00

* PE (Bold) EPS (no formatting) MPS (Underlined)

Kindly let discuss and come up with a Top 5 and I am open to suggestions. Lets unlock value in the NSE.Think
Offering my personal finance knowledge for free
nashx
#2 Posted : Friday, May 16, 2014 1:32:14 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/28/2014
Posts: 188
Location: Nairobi
For disclosure purposes: Current Holdings
CfC bought @ 95
KenyaRe @16 (want to add more)
Offering my personal finance knowledge for free
Mukiri
#3 Posted : Friday, May 16, 2014 1:37:36 AM
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Joined: 7/11/2012
Posts: 5,222
KPLC Watch this space

Proverbs 19:21
nashx
#4 Posted : Friday, May 16, 2014 1:44:45 AM
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Joined: 2/28/2014
Posts: 188
Location: Nairobi
Mukiri wrote:
KPLC Watch this space

Kengen has a higher EPS n lower PE but with the upcoming supersized rights I can see why KPLC is a better pick. Thanks
Offering my personal finance knowledge for free
hisah
#5 Posted : Friday, May 16, 2014 7:08:20 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
KPLC and kengen. I have a liquidity (share volume) bias due to my trader nature, so these two fit my picks from that list. I have loaded kplc from April. I am tempted to get back to kengen which I sold later yr, but the jumbo rights issue puts me off. If the rights issue is done, holding kengen should be a 5yr plus minimum timeframe.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
mwekez@ji
#6 Posted : Friday, May 16, 2014 8:47:14 AM
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Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
Mukiri wrote:
KPLC Watch this space


nashx
#7 Posted : Friday, May 16, 2014 9:17:07 AM
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Joined: 2/28/2014
Posts: 188
Location: Nairobi
hisah wrote:
KPLC and kengen. I have a liquidity (share volume) bias due to my trader nature, so these two fit my picks from that list. I have loaded kplc from April. I am tempted to get back to kengen which I sold later yr, but the jumbo rights issue puts me off. If the rights issue is done, holding kengen should be a 5yr plus minimum timeframe.


I agree with you on Kengen, the rights are the issue but it is very tempting at current prices!!

KPLC seems to be stuck at 14.8-14.9... TA can tell us if it this is its final support level before taking off...although I feel 13.5 would be the best entry level for a long termerThink
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nashx
#8 Posted : Friday, May 16, 2014 9:19:14 AM
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Joined: 2/28/2014
Posts: 188
Location: Nairobi
mwekez@ji wrote:
Mukiri wrote:
KPLC Watch this space




Seems KPLC has a major vote of confidence from the discussion so far
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Fyatu
#9 Posted : Friday, May 16, 2014 9:25:57 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 1/20/2011
Posts: 1,820
Location: Nakuru
where can i find PE and EPS for Transcentury?
Dumb money becomes dumb only when it listens to smart money
mlennyma
#10 Posted : Friday, May 16, 2014 9:27:09 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,191
Location: nairobi
The kenyan longterm nse investor is hurt every 5yrs by election fears,only for others to buy what he has held for long cheap,i look for the time we will mature politically and eliminate this fears.
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
nashx
#11 Posted : Friday, May 16, 2014 9:47:37 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/28/2014
Posts: 188
Location: Nairobi
Fyatu wrote:
where can i find PE and EPS for Transcentury?


Transcentury

EPS: 1.66
PE: 13.705
MPS: 22.75
Offering my personal finance knowledge for free
hisah
#12 Posted : Friday, May 16, 2014 9:59:43 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
nashx wrote:
hisah wrote:
KPLC and kengen. I have a liquidity (share volume) bias due to my trader nature, so these two fit my picks from that list. I have loaded kplc from April. I am tempted to get back to kengen which I sold later yr, but the jumbo rights issue puts me off. If the rights issue is done, holding kengen should be a 5yr plus minimum timeframe.


I agree with you on Kengen, the rights are the issue but it is very tempting at current prices!!

KPLC seems to be stuck at 14.8-14.9... TA can tell us if it this is its final support level before taking off...although I feel 13.5 would be the best entry level for a long termerThink

It has been ranging between 14 - 16 levels for almost a yr now. If the price dips towards 13, that will be more than welcome smile

Also KK and TPSE should be in there for the long term hunters. Oil and hotel beds have a lot of potential if you look at the EAC econ projections.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
holycow
#13 Posted : Friday, May 16, 2014 10:19:19 AM
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Joined: 11/11/2006
Posts: 972
Location: Home
My 2 cents. Dividend yield might be a factor while going long term.
Aguytrying
#14 Posted : Friday, May 16, 2014 10:38:51 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
I think its unwise to invest in gava firms long term. the shares look like the have value but gava always comes to spoil the party. unless there's a chance of gava reducing its stake to a non controlling level you are better off putting your cash elsewhere.

The reason the shares are undervalued is because of gava not putting shareholder wishes as a priority.

Kengen. it's several years since IPO, it's trading at below IPO price. has never split. if u went in long term you would be negative all these years later

kplc. rights at 19.50 3 yrs ago. now trading at 14.80. do I need to say more.

kq. and mumias and eapc same story.

take home: don't invest in gava long term. make you money get out and wait for the next depression.

the advantage is that we know there's a time they'll be dirt cheap and there's a time they'll rally. don't be left dancing when the music stops
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
hisah
#15 Posted : Friday, May 16, 2014 10:59:08 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Aguytrying wrote:
I think its unwise to invest in gava firms long term. the shares look like the have value but gava always comes to spoil the party. unless there's a chance of gava reducing its stake to a non controlling level you are better off putting your cash elsewhere.

The reason the shares are undervalued is because of gava not putting shareholder wishes as a priority.

Kengen. it's several years since IPO, it's trading at below IPO price. has never split. if u went in long term you would be negative all these years later

kplc. rights at 19.50 3 yrs ago. now trading at 14.80. do I need to say more.

kq. and mumias and eapc same story.

take home: don't invest in gava long term. make you money get out and wait for the next depression.

the advantage is that we know there's a time they'll be dirt cheap and there's a time they'll rally. don't be left dancing when the music stops

Yep. When investing in firms where gok is the main shareholder one has to be very alert even if the mr market is offering unbelievable discounts.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
nashx
#16 Posted : Friday, May 16, 2014 11:52:09 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/28/2014
Posts: 188
Location: Nairobi
hisah wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
I think its unwise to invest in gava firms long term. the shares look like the have value but gava always comes to spoil the party. unless there's a chance of gava reducing its stake to a non controlling level you are better off putting your cash elsewhere.

The reason the shares are undervalued is because of gava not putting shareholder wishes as a priority.

Kengen. it's several years since IPO, it's trading at below IPO price. has never split. if u went in long term you would be negative all these years later

kplc. rights at 19.50 3 yrs ago. now trading at 14.80. do I need to say more.

kq. and mumias and eapc same story.

take home: don't invest in gava long term. make you money get out and wait for the next depression.

the advantage is that we know there's a time they'll be dirt cheap and there's a time they'll rally. don't be left dancing when the music stops

Yep. When investing in firms where gok is the main shareholder one has to be very alert even if the mr market is offering unbelievable discounts.


EAPC issues a profit warning


I agree with @Aguy in Kenya its like we are stuck in a 5 year cycle in which if you hold stocks blindly you will probably end up back at square one or worse. That is unless you have been earning good dividends along the way. Thus the only stock one can buy and forget in the NSE is BAT
a BUS that left long time ago Sad

Rather than work with years, I work with target percentages and as a disciplined investor sell once this target is reached. The 5 yr equivalent wld be in my opinion 50+ % and the trick is to find discounts in the market that can be actively held till they are 50+ (which can take sometimes more than an year)However, if takes less and there is no sign of further upswing, I sell and start all over again. I attained the above at qrt1 I want now to start over...Drool
Offering my personal finance knowledge for free
Timeless star
#17 Posted : Friday, May 16, 2014 11:58:03 AM
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Joined: 5/15/2014
Posts: 4
Quite informative @guy
nashx
#18 Posted : Friday, May 16, 2014 12:01:17 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/28/2014
Posts: 188
Location: Nairobi
holycow wrote:
My 2 cents. Dividend yield might be a factor while going long term.


I will try do an analysis based on DPS based on the above or you have suggestions?
Offering my personal finance knowledge for free
guru267
#19 Posted : Friday, May 16, 2014 12:14:58 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
nashx wrote:


No Company PE EPS Price
1 Cargen 3.55 9.45 33.50
2 Kengen 4.60 2.39 11.05
3 KenyaRe 4.65 4.29 19.95
4 EAPC 4.70 19.73 92.60
5 KPLC 6.70 2.20 14.85
6 Longhorn 8.10 1.60 13.00
7 PAFR 9.70 13.05 126.00
8 NIC 9.80 6.12 60.00
9 Uchumi 9.80 1.35 13.20
10 Centum 10.60 3.77 40.00

* PE (Bold) EPS (no formatting) MPS (Underlined)



I think every single EPS number here is wrong!
Where do you get your info??
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
deadpoet
#20 Posted : Friday, May 16, 2014 12:16:42 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/27/2006
Posts: 505
Would a company's free float affect it long term? Companies like BAT that are largely owned by their parent companies have taken off, while some others haven't... quite confounding
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