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2nd Government Infrastructure Bond
Mainat
#11 Posted : Thursday, December 03, 2009 7:42:08 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/21/2006
Posts: 1,590
The famous crowding out effect on private sector at work.
I bet you Std Chartered must be laughing all the way to the bank as it were
Sehemu ndio nyumba
KulaRaha
#12 Posted : Thursday, December 03, 2009 8:06:43 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/26/2007
Posts: 6,514
As at September 56% of Kenya's doemstic debt (t bills, bonds etc) was held by banks. If we go by this ratio, 24B of this bond's bids were by banks. That IS crowding our, my friend, no matter what you say about ins cos and double bidding.
Business opportunities are like buses,there's always another one coming
VituVingiSana
#13 Posted : Thursday, December 03, 2009 9:00:51 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,346
Location: Nairobi
@mainat - Nothing like this as an example of crowding out private borrowers! Furthermore, the Bond is tax-free so an added 'disincentive' to invest in private firms.

Uchumi has been trying to sell a debenture. To match GoK on post-tax basis, it has to offer 18%. That is crazy!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#14 Posted : Thursday, December 03, 2009 9:06:08 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,346
Location: Nairobi
@kularaha - CBK has been trying to avoid borrowing from banks for the Infrastructure Bonds. I do not know if it is working.

At a post-tax return of 12.57%... why even lend to customers who may default? And need monitoring. And need branches. And need services. And may be late in paying.

I believe the maximum allocation to a single institution is KES 10mn (if there are sufficient bidders at attractive prices). Perhaps the limit is higher for larger bonds.

Insurance firms find the these Bonds (since they have partial redemptions) particularly attractive.

High interest rates. Tax exempt. Partial redemptions though the life of the Bond. Low risk.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
KulaRaha
#15 Posted : Thursday, December 03, 2009 9:22:11 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/26/2007
Posts: 6,514
VVS, there is no max limit for any bond.

What I'm saying is if banks start heading to these bonds in numbers, who will lend to business??
Business opportunities are like buses,there's always another one coming
kizee
#16 Posted : Thursday, December 03, 2009 10:14:31 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/9/2008
Posts: 537
kularaha has a point...luk at the balance sheets of bbk and scnk...both banks have markedly upped their stakes in gvt securities...aidan mohamed is on record as sayin that bbk wud reduce lending and invest in treasuries...private sector definately gettin crowded out...wats worse is that thereis little proof that these funds ever get used for infrastructure....
mwanahisa
#17 Posted : Thursday, December 03, 2009 10:25:18 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
Indeed. On the other hand as long as these bonds continue to pay such "high" level of interest, Governor Ndung'u can continue to shout himself hoarse for banks to lower their lending rates with ZERO effect.
mwanahisa
#18 Posted : Thursday, December 03, 2009 10:29:02 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
One point that we seem to be losing in the over subscription levels of the most recent bond issues is that it shows that there is serious money sitting on the sidelines looking for a home. While this is an indicator towards the level of risk aversion w.r.t equities, it could also be a pointer that this money could find its way into the equities market. Now, what's gonna trigger that?
Scooby
#19 Posted : Thursday, December 03, 2009 8:26:36 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/2/2006
Posts: 121
@ Kula raha - there is a limit of Kshs 10 million per applicant.Its something that has been there for a while.

Have you all considered the fact that also foreign investors (with their so called hot money) had also applied for the bond? I dont think the participation by local banks has ever caused the yield to drop by a whopping 100 bps!

Am sure it will be the same with the third bond next year in February.
wanyuru
#20 Posted : Friday, December 04, 2009 5:12:05 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/29/2007
Posts: 948
@ Kularaha. you're right. Though there are some quarters claiming that lending to private sector hasn't really been affected. i doubt.

The bond has a coupon of 12% down from 12.5% on the first bond with similar features. with KNBS coming up with the 'correct' method of calculating inflation figures the CBK should revise these coupons downwards....will this trigger a redirection of funds to the equities market?

@scooby, this bond had no limit for application and in any case the limit is tagged on non competitive bids only for the kawaida bonds.
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