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Safaricom FY 2014 results +31% profit after tax
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murchr
#11 Posted : Monday, May 12, 2014 4:15:53 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
hisah wrote:
DPS = 47cts!? The rumour mill was right on the money - http://www.wazua.co.ke/f...amp;m=552348#post552348

Div yield as per today's price is 3.64% i.e. 0.47/12.90

Cashflow swells to 22.7B boosting the M&A war chest. Focus now shifts what pans out in the mobi money turf war. But with that cashflow the entrants will find a ready opponent. Going head to head with a cashflow flush opponent will not be the best option to attack that market.


Dang! Those rumor mongers are better than @Obiero's Exchange bar patriots.

@georgeop...dint do it must have been admin doing some cleaning, i posted in the thread you've pasted.

Excellent results i must say
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
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muganda
#12 Posted : Monday, May 12, 2014 4:16:54 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/15/2006
Posts: 3,907
Time to delve deeeeper
Click on the links below to view the updates.

Full Year 2013-2014 Results Presentation
Full Year 2013-2014 Results Press Commentary

And good calls @hisah, as always smile
snipermnoma wrote:

@hisah was spot on!
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yosie14
#13 Posted : Monday, May 12, 2014 4:26:45 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 12/17/2013
Posts: 118
hisah wrote:
DPS = 47cts!? The rumour mill was right on the money - http://www.wazua.co.ke/f...amp;m=552348#post552348

Div yield as per today's price is 3.64% i.e. 0.47/12.90

Cashflow swells to 22.7B boosting the M&A war chest. Focus now shifts what pans out in the mobi money turf war. But with that cashflow the entrants will find a ready opponent. Going head to head with a cashflow flush opponent will not be the best option to attack that market.

And EPS 0.57.Dang!!!!
KCB,NMG,PAFR
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#14 Posted : Monday, May 12, 2014 4:30:38 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,225
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
snipermnoma wrote:
hisah wrote:
My focus on today's FY release will be on EPS, cashflow and M&A plans. I need to see how the cashflow bucket will be loaded going forward with the corporate bond payouts coming up in 2015 and 2016. Also the debt pay back ratio is key to confirm how fast the debt free phase will be achieved.

This thing is still a cashcow as along as it can maintain a flowing cashflow bucket.

If the H1 momentum was replicated in H2 then FY should read

EPS = 0.56
DPS = 70% of EPS i.e. 0.56*70% = 39cts. As per the rumour mill it's speculated 85% of free cashflow will be paid as div which would mean 47cts!?
P/E = 22.95 at a price of 12.85

If P/E remains at the lofty 29 - 30 levels then with an EPS of 0.56 the price will scale above 16/- while pricing the future DPS spike.



yosie14 wrote:
http://www.safaricom.co.ke/

Dividend 0.47


@hisah was spot on!

Actual EPS = 0.57
Actual DPS = 0.47
@Hisah is right on the moneysmile
@SufficientlyP
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snipermnoma
#15 Posted : Monday, May 12, 2014 4:38:38 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/3/2014
Posts: 257
hisah wrote:
My focus on today's FY release will be on EPS, cashflow and M&A plans. I need to see how the cashflow bucket will be loaded going forward with the corporate bond payouts coming up in 2015 and 2016. Also the debt pay back ratio is key to confirm how fast the debt free phase will be achieved.

This thing is still a cashcow as along as it can maintain a flowing cashflow bucket.

If the H1 momentum was replicated in H2 then FY should read

EPS = 0.56
DPS = 70% of EPS i.e. 0.56*70% = 39cts. As per the rumour mill it's speculated 85% of free cashflow will be paid as div which would mean 47cts!?
P/E = 22.95 at a price of 12.85

If P/E remains at the lofty 29 - 30 levels then with an EPS of 0.56 the price will scale above 16/- while pricing the future DPS spike.



There is another thread on the FY results but had to come back here and acknowledge @hisah for being spot on with the numbers!
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#16 Posted : Monday, May 12, 2014 4:47:53 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,225
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
But at a trailing PER 0f 22.63 using todays VWAP of 12.90, Scom is indeed trading at a premium.A conservative telco trailing PER of 15 would place it right at KES.8.55.
If Scom matches its 2013-2014 29.55% EPS growth, giving it forward PER of 15, its EPS would be 0.738 = (.57*1.2955)and this would put its price at KES.11.07
In my view, a fall in its price below this(11.07) is a buy!
@SufficientlyP
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  | | Edit by user: Monday, May 12, 2014 4:52 PM | Reason: Not specified
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#17 Posted : Monday, May 12, 2014 5:02:37 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,225
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
hisah wrote:
DPS = 47cts!? The rumour mill was right on the money - http://www.wazua.co.ke/f...amp;m=552348#post552348

Div yield as per today's price is 3.64% i.e. 0.47/12.90

Cashflow swells to 22.7B boosting the M&A war chest. Focus now shifts what pans out in the mobi money turf war. But with that cashflow the entrants will find a ready opponent. Going head to head with a cashflow flush opponent will not be the best option to attack that market.

For member, the yield on accounts release date(KES.32) was 4.69 that is(1.5/3.59) and still the retention rate was higher at 58.21% vs mpesa's 17.54% though Mpesa is much more liquid and hence can afford a higher Div ratio.
@SufficientlyP
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  | | Edit by user: Monday, May 12, 2014 5:11 PM | Reason: Not specified
Murang'a
#18 Posted : Monday, May 12, 2014 5:33:21 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 3/3/2014
Posts: 131
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
hisah wrote:
DPS = 47cts!? The rumour mill was right on the money - http://www.wazua.co.ke/f...amp;m=552348#post552348

Div yield as per today's price is 3.64% i.e. 0.47/12.90

Cashflow swells to 22.7B boosting the M&A war chest. Focus now shifts what pans out in the mobi money turf war. But with that cashflow the entrants will find a ready opponent. Going head to head with a cashflow flush opponent will not be the best option to attack that market.

For member, the yield on accounts release date(KES.32) was 4.69 that is(1.5/3.59) and still the retention rate was higher at 58.21% vs mpesa's 17.54% though Mpesa is much more liquid and hence can afford a higher Div ratio.

@hisahApplause Applause
IMITATION IS LIMITATION
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poundfoolish
#19 Posted : Monday, May 12, 2014 5:36:31 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/2/2009
Posts: 2,458
Location: Nairobi
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
But at a trailing PER 0f 22.63 using todays VWAP of 12.90, Scom is indeed trading at a premium.A conservative telco trailing PER of 15 would place it right at KES.8.55.
If Scom matches its 2013-2014 29.55% EPS growth, giving it forward PER of 15, its EPS would be 0.738 = (.57*1.2955)and this would put its price at KES.11.07
In my view, a fall in its price below this(11.07) is a buy!


11:07 noted smile

Thanks for the information
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maka
#20 Posted : Monday, May 12, 2014 7:35:49 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 4/22/2010
Posts: 11,522
Location: Nairobi
poundfoolish wrote:
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
But at a trailing PER 0f 22.63 using todays VWAP of 12.90, Scom is indeed trading at a premium.A conservative telco trailing PER of 15 would place it right at KES.8.55.
If Scom matches its 2013-2014 29.55% EPS growth, giving it forward PER of 15, its EPS would be 0.738 = (.57*1.2955)and this would put its price at KES.11.07
In my view, a fall in its price below this(11.07) is a buy!


11:07 noted smile

Thanks for the information

I doubt we will ever see 11.07 on this...
possunt quia posse videntur
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