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Is Taking a Mortgage the WORST Decision Ever??
knight026
#161 Posted : Friday, May 09, 2014 2:29:53 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 1/3/2014
Posts: 32
OK so i assume we have no numbers for 10-20 years. I will work with 12% provided for the last 5 years. Now @MaichBlack mythical guy has only 100k a month. But we assume he has 6M all in the NSE. That will get him 720k.But hez above average. so he made 1.5M
If he went to msa 5 years back, bought 3 decent swahili houses, each giving a rent income of 15K,then he would have made 2.7M. I rest my case.
MaichBlack
#162 Posted : Friday, May 09, 2014 2:38:03 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,455
knight026 wrote:
OK so i assume we have no numbers for 10-20 years. I will work with 12% provided for the last 5 years. Now @MaichBlack mythical guy has only 100k a month. But we assume he has 6M all in the NSE. That will get him 720k.But hez above average. so he made 1.5M
If he went to msa 5 years back, bought 3 decent swahili houses, each giving a rent income of 15K,then he would have made 2.7M. I rest my case.

Geez!!! What's up with you? I have given you a million links! Does your computer have a mouse?

Today alone I have given you the link below twice!!!

http://www.investinginafrica.net/african-stock-markets/african-stock-market-performance/

There is this one too!

MaichBlack wrote:
Visit the link below:

The rise and rise of Silent Billionaires in the NSE - Posted Thursday, July 4 2013


Among many others?

And I'm telling you to simply ask wazuans what % returns they have actually been making!! And a number have provided actual numbers. I have also given you links of people who document their plays real time and make more than 100% returns in a year and you have chosen to ignore all this!

I officially give up on you. You are not interested in facts! Not one bit. I presume you are bank 'sales executive'.
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
KulaRaha
#163 Posted : Friday, May 09, 2014 2:46:49 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/26/2007
Posts: 6,514
So, for comparison's sake, how much land would 1M buy in 2006, say in Kitengela or a good suburb in Nairobi? This is to compare like for like: a great NSE performer against a great plot.
Business opportunities are like buses,there's always another one coming
knight026
#164 Posted : Friday, May 09, 2014 2:55:22 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 1/3/2014
Posts: 32


The NSE index has made 12% returns over the past 5 years. That is what the average investor made over the period.[/quote]



I just quoted the economist. So maybe we start again, whoz numbers are correct?
Fyatu
#165 Posted : Friday, May 09, 2014 3:02:37 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 1/20/2011
Posts: 1,820
Location: Nakuru
The richest man in the world is not Donald Trump (real estate mogul) but the Oracle of Omaha ( Warren Buffet)
Dumb money becomes dumb only when it listens to smart money
MaichBlack
#166 Posted : Friday, May 09, 2014 3:09:34 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,455
knight026 wrote:

knight026 wrote:


The NSE index has made 12% returns over the past 5 years. That is what the average investor made over the period.


I just quoted the economist. So maybe we start again, whoz numbers are correct?

Click the links provided!!!! Starting with the ones in post# 162 above! What is???
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
Fyatu
#167 Posted : Friday, May 09, 2014 3:13:06 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 1/20/2011
Posts: 1,820
Location: Nakuru
If you had 1 mirrion KES in 2004 and "cherry picked" Athi river mining you will now have 25 mirrion not forgetting the bonus/split

RINK
Dumb money becomes dumb only when it listens to smart money
mungaits
#168 Posted : Friday, May 09, 2014 3:13:53 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/20/2007
Posts: 252
Many thanks to @mukiri, @chemos and @angelic for sober, practical and real life insights.

I think some of the contributors are losing the focus of the discussion, the issue here is merits and demerits of mortgage plus ways to make mortgage work for you.

Hii maneno ya shares or buying buroti (plus lots of hypothetical google supported analysis) are better than mortgages are really not relevant in this discussion.

No one is disputing that shares na buroti can make you a billionaire but in this discussion its not helping. My suugestion, move the shares maneno to another thread and let the relevant comments continue here on issues to do with mortgages.

My personal take, just took an approx 3.8m mortgage for an apartment off Msa road, monthly repayment is around 50k.(potential rent of 25 - 30k) My plan is to pay it off in max 5 yrs and get another one in a "posher" address as my income hopefully adjusts upwards.

Kwa hayo machache asanteni.

NB no matusi
MaichBlack
#169 Posted : Friday, May 09, 2014 3:17:38 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,455
Note: This thread is not about Stocks vs Real Estate. It's about mortgages and whether they make any economic sense whatsoever. The question is, if you were to invest the money you spend on monthly payments, would you be better off?

"Invest" here is not limited to stocks!

Personally I invest in both stocks and real estate [undeveloped plots].

Biggest surprise from this thread: People imagining a 25% annual return is "mythical". What would one be doing in wazua if their target is 12%? You need wazua(ns) to make 12%? Eish!!!
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
MaichBlack
#170 Posted : Friday, May 09, 2014 3:21:48 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,455
KulaRaha wrote:
So, for comparison's sake, how much land would 1M buy in 2006, say in Kitengela or a good suburb in Nairobi? This is to compare like for like: a great NSE performer against a great plot.

The issue here is "Investing" vs mortgage. You can invest in a good plot if you get one. Or stocks if you have good picks. Or wherever else.

I also invest in real estate. I have discussed this in in this forum over and over.

Question is - Do mortgages [vis-a-vis investments] make any economic sense??
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
Fyatu
#171 Posted : Friday, May 09, 2014 3:32:53 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 1/20/2011
Posts: 1,820
Location: Nakuru
MaichBlack wrote:
KulaRaha wrote:
So, for comparison's sake, how much land would 1M buy in 2006, say in Kitengela or a good suburb in Nairobi? This is to compare like for like: a great NSE performer against a great plot.

The issue here is "Investing" vs mortgage. You can invest in a good plot if you get one. Or stocks if you have good picks. Or wherever else.

I also invest in real estate. I have discussed this in in this forum over and over.

Question is - Do mortgages [vis-a-vis investments] make any economic sense??


It depends on an individuals preference. If you can manage to make the payments and still have some cash to invest then taking a mortgage for a good house in a good location is worth it. Please note my emphasis on location, lest you find yourself 10 years down the line sorrounded by a ghetto. The way rents are going in Nairobi, it might be wise to pick up a mortgage coz it does not make sense paying rent at 30k while you could be paying the same amount as mortgage installments to make the house yours.

Bottomline is, if you plan to live and work in Nairobi for the next 20yrs, either buy a plot and build a hao or take a mortgage, coz rent will soon catch up with Mortgage installments
Dumb money becomes dumb only when it listens to smart money
CLK
#172 Posted : Friday, May 09, 2014 4:03:42 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 4/1/2009
Posts: 846
My response is based on if one wants a house only for peace of mind, that should you lose your job or die, your family will have a roof over their head.

In 2010 i wanted to take a mortgage, house was a flat going for 7.6M. Qualified for one at 15% per annum for 20 years. Repayment was going to be 85k per month.

It occurred to me, i was going to tie a large portion of my income to this mortgage for a long time, i also felt my folks needed a better house, thought it would be wise to take an unsecured loan from a bank and build them one then engage a mortgage afterwards, best decision ever, because shortly after interest rates went up the roof, but with the unsecured loan it was bearable than a repayment of 140k from 85k while my salary remained the same.


Fast forward to 2013, my bank was offering 105% on Mortgages, figured i could even have new furniture for the new house since i did not need to put a down payment of any kind, just sign the papers, pass by tiles and carpet and go home!

A former classmate works for this bank and advised me otherwise.

This is what he said, 'if you can afford 100k a month out of your paycheck and still meet your other obligations, you are rich' A mortgage will however make you poor'

Gave an example of the cheapest mortgage you can get in Nairobi today; Those Nyayo Embakasi flats, go for 6.1m at 15% for 15-20 years. Your total repayment in 20 years is 20M.
If you are willing to live in Nyayo Embakasi, lets assume you don't mind living in mlolongo or Utawala.

Take an unsecured loan from your bank of 1M,find a piece of land 1/8th in size, Repay the loan in a year with the money you could have been repaying the mortgage.
Year two, top up the loan or take a new one of say 2M, start building your house, a design you want.

With the above maths, you will have a more decent and spacious house fully owned in 5 years at a cheaper cost minus those annoying neighbors.

With a mortgage, the day you lose your job, they will repossess it!! With an unsecured loan, insurance can sort them!!

So go ahead and invest the down payment you had in mind in stocks.


sparkly
#173 Posted : Friday, May 09, 2014 4:12:18 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
MaichBlack wrote:
KulaRaha wrote:
So, for comparison's sake, how much land would 1M buy in 2006, say in Kitengela or a good suburb in Nairobi? This is to compare like for like: a great NSE performer against a great plot.

The issue here is "Investing" vs mortgage. You can invest in a good plot if you get one. Or stocks if you have good picks. Or wherever else.

I also invest in real estate. I have discussed this in in this forum over and over.

Question is - Do mortgages [vis-a-vis investments] make any economic sense??


Mortgage- A debt instrument, secured by the collateral of specified real estate property, that the borrower is obliged to pay back with a predetermined set of payments

A mortgage is a debt , period. A debt that should be repaid.

Consequently, we cannot compare a debt with investments! We can only compare a debt with other types of debt:

Unsecured debt-No security needed. You will get this if you need small amounts, have a good relationship with your financier/supplier and a good cashflow/income.

Secured on movable property- Debts secured on chattels (vehicles, equipment, goods), Shares, floating (past and future movable property of the debtor). If moveable property is all you have, then you can use it to secure borrowings. This is a favorite of asset financiers and loan sharks.

Secured on real estate property (mortgage)- Only available for those with real estate or willing to secure the debt on the real estate to be purchased. Idealy this is the least risky collateral for the lender for big amounts over a long period of time.

Comparing a mortgage to investments is comparing mangoes and oranges. Let us compare different types of debt or diffrent types of investments.
Life is short. Live passionately.
MaichBlack
#174 Posted : Friday, May 09, 2014 4:20:59 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,455
@sparkly - The question [in THIS discussion] is, if I can afford 50k, 100k or whatever amount every month would I be better of using it to pay a mortgage or investing [while paying rent]. That simple.

Comparing different debt instruments is a totally different discussion for another thread [which you can start].

Someone else can also start one for Real Estate vs Stocks.

Another day another person will start another one discussing which provider is the best for a specific debt instrument.

etc.

Let's not lose focus.
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
a4architect.com
#175 Posted : Friday, May 09, 2014 4:49:49 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 1/4/2010
Posts: 1,668
Location: nairobi
CLK wrote:
My response is based on if one wants a house only for peace of mind, that should you lose your job or die, your family will have a roof over their head.

In 2010 i wanted to take a mortgage, house was a flat going for 7.6M. Qualified for one at 15% per annum for 20 years. Repayment was going to be 85k per month.

It occurred to me, i was going to tie a large portion of my income to this mortgage for a long time, i also felt my folks needed a better house, thought it would be wise to take an unsecured loan from a bank and build them one then engage a mortgage afterwards, best decision ever, because shortly after interest rates went up the roof, but with the unsecured loan it was bearable than a repayment of 140k from 85k while my salary remained the same.


Fast forward to 2013, my bank was offering 105% on Mortgages, figured i could even have new furniture for the new house since i did not need to put a down payment of any kind, just sign the papers, pass by tiles and carpet and go home!

A former classmate works for this bank and advised me otherwise.

This is what he said, 'if you can afford 100k a month out of your paycheck and still meet your other obligations, you are rich' A mortgage will however make you poor'

Gave an example of the cheapest mortgage you can get in Nairobi today; Those Nyayo Embakasi flats, go for 6.1m at 15% for 15-20 years. Your total repayment in 20 years is 20M.
If you are willing to live in Nyayo Embakasi, lets assume you don't mind living in mlolongo or Utawala.

Take an unsecured loan from your bank of 1M,find a piece of land 1/8th in size, Repay the loan in a year with the money you could have been repaying the mortgage.
Year two, top up the loan or take a new one of say 2M, start building your house, a design you want.

With the above maths, you will have a more decent and spacious house fully owned in 5 years at a cheaper cost minus those annoying neighbors.

With a mortgage, the day you lose your job, they will repossess it!! With an unsecured loan, insurance can sort them!!

So go ahead and invest the down payment you had in mind in stocks.




@clk, that was a smart move. I have advised on a similar issue here

http://www.a4architect.c...al-projects-in-nairobi/

@maichblack, the only mortgage that can give a win win situation is whereby the monthly repayments are equal to the rent income, so they offset each other.

The only real estate project that am aware of that can offset monthly mortgage payments is this below

http://www.a4architect.c...ment-option-kenya-2014/

Others, such as offices,malls , high end residences etc can also be able to offset this.
As Iron Sharpens Iron, So one Man Sharpens Another.
knight026
#176 Posted : Friday, May 09, 2014 4:53:32 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 1/3/2014
Posts: 32
http://markets.ft.com/re...bol=570529&options={"StartDate":null,"EndDate":null,"LowerIndicator":[{"Args":[{"Type":11,"Value":12},{"Type":12,"Value":2}],"Code":18,"UID":220989742},{"Args":[{"Type":8,"Value":9},{"Type":9,"Value":12},{"Type":10,"Value":26}],"Code":9,"UID":943664520}],"UpperIndicator":[],"Overlay":[],"ChartStyle":3,"ChartScale":1,"CursorStyle":1,"Interval":8,"Duration":11,"Comparison":[],"PortfolioName":null,"Width":950,"Height":400,"ActiveTool":null}



Ok now can the expert analyse because am lazy.
2012
#177 Posted : Friday, May 09, 2014 5:14:52 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/9/2009
Posts: 6,592
Location: Nairobi
sparkly wrote:
A mortgage is a debt , period. A debt that should be repaid.


Not all debt is bad! I'm sure you know that especially if you're in business.
Mortgage if used wisely can help own now what you'd most likely never afford in the future. I see it as using other people money to invest low for a very high return in the long term.
I know someone who's now paying installments of 70k mortgage in a neibourhood that rent is 160k now. I'm sure there was a time he felt like a fool but now he's laughing all the way to owning his home in a very leafy suburb.

The trick to beat mortgage is pay more than your set installments.

BBI will solve it
:)
a4architect.com
#178 Posted : Friday, May 09, 2014 5:21:45 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 1/4/2010
Posts: 1,668
Location: nairobi
@2012, true. am in the process of finalising a palacial residence in an upmarket nairobi neighbourhood which is financed through mortgage and the mortgage repayments = expected monthly rent.

This is a very rare occurrence in Nairobi and a near impossibility in the majority available real estate costing kes 5 to 6m with rent of 20 to 25 k and mortgage payments of 70k.

Only investments where mortgage repayment=rental income are considered a smart investment.
As Iron Sharpens Iron, So one Man Sharpens Another.
MaichBlack
#179 Posted : Friday, May 09, 2014 5:35:26 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,455
2012 wrote:
sparkly wrote:
A mortgage is a debt , period. A debt that should be repaid.


Not all debt is bad! I'm sure you know that especially if you're in business.
Mortgage if used wisely can help own now what you'd most likely never afford in the future. I see it as using other people money to invest low for a very high return in the long term.
I know someone who's now paying installments of 70k mortgage in a neibourhood that rent is 160k now. I'm sure there was a time he felt like a fool but now he's laughing all the way to owning his home in a very leafy suburb.

The trick to beat mortgage is pay more than your set installments.

Installments for 70k are for a mortgage of 5 million at 16% for a period of 20 years and 4.7 million for 15 years. Never mind if he/she bought the house 5 or more years ago the interest rate was far much higher!

Kindly inform us which neighbourhood is this where a house purchased for 5 - 6 million is now fetching rent of 160k and when the house bought. Name of the Estate please.

Mentioning these two things doesn't compromise your anonymity or that of your friend so it shouldn't be a problem!

Ball on you side....
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
whiteowl
#180 Posted : Friday, May 09, 2014 5:40:27 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/16/2014
Posts: 1,420
Location: Bohemian Grove
MaichBlack wrote:
Note: This thread is not about Stocks vs Real Estate. It's about mortgages and whether they make any economic sense whatsoever. The question is, if you were to invest the money you spend on monthly payments, would you be better off?

"Invest" here is not limited to stocks!

Personally I invest in both stocks and real estate [undeveloped plots].

Biggest surprise from this thread: People imagining a 25% annual return is "mythical". What would one be doing in wazua if their target is 12%? You need wazua(ns) to make 12%? Eish!!!


Its not mythical at all. I've made about 60% returns in my 1st year and posted it here
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