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Kenya Economy Watch
Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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hisah wrote:Next signal, forex accounts that earn interest as fx drought shows up... This time it's different than 2011. Just about to hit the 87 mark. Traded a high of 86.95 today. Breakout looms towards 90-95 zone.$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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Kenya hopes of yuan clearing house rise with premier’s visitKenya’s bid to host a clearing house for China’s yuan currency is expected to gain fresh impetus as Chinese Premier Li Keqiang visits Nairobi next month. This would be a boon to traders as it would cut the costs they incur when converting from the Kenyan shilling to the yuan. They are forced to convert to the dollar first, then to the Chinese currency, resulting in loss of actual value and commissions. The issue is expected to top the agenda of Prime Minister Li’s visit to Nairobi. For Kenya, hosting the clearing house would be important in sending a political message on its deepening ties with the East and in its bid to turn Nairobi into one of Africa’s key financial hubs. Tanzania and South Africa are said to be also interested in hosting the facility. "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore .
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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This agri bleeding should be a top 3 national agenda item esp if no eurobond float. Fx reserves will dry faster exposing KES like back in 2011 - http://www.businessdaily...40/-/viaodv/-/index.html$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/21/2006 Posts: 1,590
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Eurobond might happen in the 2nd half of the yr, will confirm today, but the dynamic duo are a bit clueless on matters economy. Giving up on Konza (even as a real estate venture,) was stupid. Not following up on the irrigation scheme is stupid. Not stemming corruption is stupid. Keeping USD at an artificial level ain't helping. Sehemu ndio nyumba
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Which one of the two is KE facing? 1. General and sustained rise in the price of goods and services or 2. Persistent decline in the purchasing power of money. And I hope not both When both conditions sustain labour wars erupt and the econ takes a nosedive. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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hisah wrote:hisah wrote:Next signal, forex accounts that earn interest as fx drought shows up... This time it's different than 2011. Just about to hit the 87 mark. Traded a high of 86.95 today. Breakout looms towards 90-95 zone. USDKES chart - image courtesy of quotenet.com
USDKES is testing above 87 handle today.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/10/2010 Posts: 1,001 Location: River Road
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El Nino Risk increases. This is going to be the next thing to watch on the economic front but we have to wait until June-July to find out whether it's a super el nino. As usual in Kenya nothing will be done until it starts to pour Quote:Sea surface temperatures during the 2009-2010 El Nino peaked at 1.6 Celsius (2.9 Fahrenheit) above normal. Readings reached 2.4 degrees above normal during the 1997-1998 event, according to the climate center.
A large area of water that’s about 4 degrees Celsius warmer than normal has moved through the Pacific, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology said. This area, called a downwelling Kelvin Wave, has raised the surface of the Pacific about 6 inches (15 centimeters), another clue an El Nino may be forming, Trenberth said. Quote:Australia's Bureau of Meteorology is increasingly convinced that the world needs to prepare for a new El Niño cycle. According to the institution, the impact of this new cycle will be felt starting from July 2014 and may continue through the winter. Also the European Center for Medium range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) and the US Climate Prediction Center stated that chances of a new El Niño cycle in 2014 are becoming higher, although it is too early to provide an indication of this year's strength of the weather phenomenon. http://www.indonesia-inv...strong-in-2014/item1918
Quote:he odds are increasing that an El Nino weather system will form this year, portending drought for Australia and Asia and a warmer winter in the U.S. Northeast.
The U.S. Climate Prediction Center now says there’s a 65 percent chance the Pacific Ocean warming pattern will develop after August. It put the odds at 52 percent last month. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology, which expected neutral conditions at the start of the year, says the phenomenon may start as soon as July. The World Meteorological Organization of the United Nations sees an El Nino at midyear. http://www.bloomberg.com...mer-carbon-climate.html
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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We must do away with Anglo fleasing b4 we seek that bond "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore .
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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murchr wrote:We must do away with Anglo fleasing b4 we seek that bond For it to be captured on zerohedge speaks volume. The shadiness of the whole anglo fleecing drama is like a badly directed cowboy movie.
Initially VAT was rammed through across board. Then came the wage cut/austerity by gok. Then rebasing the GDP. Now time to pay the fleecing cowboys in order to float the eurobond. Then what? Get a cheap rate for the float with the ongoing FED tapering drying up USD liquidity?
Weakening KES, but an expensive NSE. This will be resolved soon since both can't be in this condition. Forex drought (agri/tourism/industrials limping) and widening current account will nail KES.
Money market fight coming soon...
Industrials http://www.businessdaily...2/-/nt4e0v/-/index.html
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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So sitting presidente did forestall anglo fleecing some time back! Hmmm... Now I see the west's 'choices have consequences' angle. This is one big fight and the fall out and exposure of the ghost faces promises to be spectacular http://mobile.nation.co..../-/85u67az/-/index.html
Quote:While moving the PAC report before the House, you stated: “Anglo Leasing is a system that has been used to fleece the taxpayers and the Kenyan public under the guise of security. If not brought to check, it will continue to rob this nation of the much needed resources that could be used to better the lives of millions of Kenyans.” Following your committee’s report, Parliament adopted the recommendations that all the ongoing contracts be cancelled immediately, and further payments under the contracts suspended. Consequently, the Minister of Finance confirmed to the House that all promissory notes were withdrawn and no further payments would be made. He further affirmed in early 2007 that the consultancy firm PwC had been hired to examine the contracts and advise Treasury on their legal termination. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Chinese Premier Li Keqiang to visit Kenya - http://www.president.go....keqiang-to-visit-kenya/
This will be interesting to follow from May 9 - 12th. Quite a long visit. Surprised to see the media supposed to liaise via pscunews@gmail.com for invite alignment. A gmail account for the presidente's official attache. Come on $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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Yup. What was on my mind when posting #4227 on the Investors Lounge. Connecting dots & pushing envelopes
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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Cde Monomotapa wrote:Yup. What was on my mind when posting #4227 on the Investors Lounge. Connecting dots & pushing envelopes Its not surprising that the SGR tender has been cleared of any issues. Interesting times ahead. @hisah remember they had opened channels ...email the president? I guess the mail was spammed or hacked ha ha . "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore .
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/21/2006 Posts: 1,590
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We rove the si-nese Sehemu ndio nyumba
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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THOSE INTERESTED IN PUTTING UP LOW COST HOUSING WE KNOW THAT PEOPLE LIKE LIVING WHERE THE MEANS OF TRANSPORT IS EASY AND CHEAP, HOPEFULLY THE SGR STATION MAP WILL HELP IN DECISION MAKING. "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore .
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/1/2009 Posts: 2,436
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Looking for a soft copy of the Economic Survey 2014, anyone?
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Intelligentsia wrote:Looking for a soft copy of the Economic Survey 2014, anyone? $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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It is very clear from this USDKES chart where things are headed. I have discussed ascending triangles enough times and the best examples are mpesa bank (breaking 7.50) and CIC (breaking 5.50-6 zone). KES is about to take a proper hiding... $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/10/2010 Posts: 1,001 Location: River Road
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hisah wrote:It is very clear from this USDKES chart where things are headed. I have discussed ascending triangles enough times and the best examples are mpesa bank (breaking 7.50) and CIC (breaking 5.50-6 zone). KES is about to take a proper hiding... With all the new cars imports, that's expected Quote:New registration of automobiles has risen for the third year in a row after a dip in 2011, the Economic Survey 2014 shows. The total number of vehicles rose from 63,486 to 77,229 to 94,017 in 2011, 2012, and 2013 respectively. The Kenya National Bureau of Statistics attributed the consecutive rise to a consistent expansion of newly registered saloon cars and station wagons over the three-year period. “Further, increased local demand as a result of the appreciation of the shilling against the Japanese Yen contributed to the increase in the importation of vehicles,” KNBS noted. - See more at: http://www.the-star.co.k...ns#sthash.REkLhfPh.dpuf
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