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Kenya Economy Watch
murchr
#621 Posted : Tuesday, April 01, 2014 3:35:20 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
murchr 9/9/2013 wrote:
mkeiyd wrote:
murchr wrote:
mkeiyd wrote:
murchr wrote:

On textile. I dont understand why you get all personal when arguing out facts, anyway...to say that the mitumba industry dint kill the local textile industry is to be blind beyond words. Ati I sound like Ktirubi...well may be...you talk about value for money in mitumba, why cant we have value in what we make? Are we such dunderheads that we cant get designers who can make something that can be appreciated by us and the rest of the world? Cant we make a garment that would last? The jobs that can be created right from the production of cotton to he selling of whatever cloth cannot be ignored.



@murchr, Ever taken a look at those mutumba labels? Quite few have 'Made in US/UK/Italy/France etc. They read China, , , and then some South East Asian countries.

There's a reason why the first world is dressed by the Asian countries, with quality garments.

If we strive to make quality garments locally, the costs will outweigh the benefits.
The quality that Chinese export to US/UK/Canada is not the same that comes to Africa or consumed in China.

The surest way to go is AGOA, Americans have the purchasing power to buy quality products from Kenya which very few Kenyans can afford.

The issue of mitumba clothes is more complex than it is appreciated by any lobbyist. The real threat to Kenya's textile industry is the importation of cheap sub-standard products from China and South East Asia.
The sort of clothes that fade in two months time.The shirts, the women suits [i abhor them].

As it stands, the cheap brand new imports are the greatest threat to our textile industry. Atleast mtumba brings in punitive taxes to the gov't, that cannot be said about brand new cheap imports.

Mutumba is in no direct competition with "Made in Kenya" apparel.
If your walk into any shop on Biashara Street selling baby stuff, how many items can 1,000 bob buy? How many items can that get you in Gikomba?
Use them for 3 months [from Biz street and the other from Giks] and compare the quality.
Value for money.
Same as using local contractors to do shoody job on our roads in the name of local.
What is better? Value for money or local no matter the quality?

On the flip side,a country that struggles to feed itself, is it not wiser to grow food crops, rather than cotton?
Do we import Sugar? Rice? Maize? Eggs?
Do we have mitumba sugar? rice? maize? egg?
Why do we import?
Why are the imports cheaper?
How much cotton do we need to dress Kenya? 90,000 tons on average per year?
How many people will the textiles industry employ?
How much does an EPZ employee earn now?
How much does a mtumba retailer earn now?


Let's not bite every bait thrown our way, textile industry is NOT a strategic sector and push to kill mtumba AS THINGS STAND, will be detrimental.


Mutumba ni mutumba doesnt matter if its from China or wherever and my arguement was not about where the cloth was made rather we should get out of this mentality that we cant make anything valuable at a cost that all can afford. Why cant we yet this is where costs could be cheaper because of cheap labor? I go back to policies, the business env should be favorable from the beginning of production to the end product.

And by the way....buy Made is America is a very huge campaign in the US ask anyone there ati AGOA - nguo? Sell to Americans what they don't have...they are taking back industries and everything else they can do. They have to raise the employment numbers

And just to note The original argument was about cement and textile industries


@murchr, Mtumba clothing falls under textiles.
Check the part in blue,that answers why we have mtumba clothing.
There is very little mtumba from China. The mtumba from the developed world happens to have been made in China [majority of it].
Americans are focusing on hi-tech products. Those are kind of products that they'll be competitive in, Chinese cheap labor won't beat that.
Common clothing is NOT hi-tech by any measure.

My argument is, let's start with the basics before we go clothing on EMPTY stomachs as well as EMPTY pockets.


I think your just commenting for the sake of it. Kwani do Kenyans walk naked? Cant some plant food and others cotton? Do you know that cotton is among the most sort after commodity ranked together with oil gold bla bla..? Why cant we eat and create a textile industry? This mentality of expecting a sequence of events is what is dragging Africa behind. Ati tukule tushibe alafu tufikirie...that was the agrarian revolution mentality. Welcome to the information age.


Glad to hear Adan talk about the revival of the cotton and leather industry. I now see a some sort of light at the end of a tunnel.
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
murchr
#622 Posted : Tuesday, April 01, 2014 6:06:32 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
The size of Kenya’s economy could increase by up to a fifth this year after the scheduled revision of data is completed, research by Standard Chartered Bank Plc indicates.

In 2012 Kenya’s GDP was put at Sh3.44 trillion but this could rise by Sh688 billion to Sh4.128 trillion once the underestimation is corrected.

“Near-term, attention will focus on the routine rebasing of Kenyan GDP statistics. Official growth figures are at odds with other evidence, suggesting some underestimation of economic activity over time,” said Razia Khan, head of research on Africa at StanChart Plc.

Good or bad?

http://www.businessdaily...6/-/s2puvyz/-/index.html
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
mwekez@ji
#623 Posted : Tuesday, April 01, 2014 9:10:23 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
Inflation returns to pre-VAT low level after dropping to 6.27pc - Inflation rate dropped to an eight month low in March to stand at 6.27% from 6.86% recorded in February despite marginal increases in the various indices. Food and Non-Alcoholic drink’s index increased by 0.56% due to an increment in price of some food items. Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels’ Index, increased by 0.28% due to a rise in cost of common cooking fuels. The Transport index increased by 0.30% due to higher costs of petrol, matatu/bus fares and parking charges --> KNBS
mwekez@ji
#624 Posted : Tuesday, April 01, 2014 9:48:53 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
murchr wrote:
The size of Kenya’s economy could increase by up to a fifth this year after the scheduled revision of data is completed, research by Standard Chartered Bank Plc indicates.

In 2012 Kenya’s GDP was put at Sh3.44 trillion but this could rise by Sh688 billion to Sh4.128 trillion once the underestimation is corrected.

“Near-term, attention will focus on the routine rebasing of Kenyan GDP statistics. Official growth figures are at odds with other evidence, suggesting some underestimation of economic activity over time,” said Razia Khan, head of research on Africa at StanChart Plc.

Good or bad?

http://www.businessdailyafrica....6/-/s2puvyz/-/index.html


;-) Cant be bad

“It is plausible that Kenya’s GDP will be revised up by circa 20 per cent with updated survey data, most likely in Q2-2014,” said Ms Khan.

She said the revision would likely improve key credit metrics such as the average per-capita income, the fiscal and current account deficits when measured as a percentage of GDP, as well as public debt ratios.

“An upward revision to GDP would help explain Kenya’s more favourable revenue mobilisation ratios compared with most of its peers, although this also reflects Kenya’s better-established private sector,” she said.
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#625 Posted : Tuesday, April 01, 2014 10:53:50 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,221
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
mwekez@ji wrote:
Inflation returns to pre-VAT low level after dropping to 6.27pc - Inflation rate dropped to an eight month low in March to stand at 6.27% from 6.86% recorded in February despite marginal increases in the various indices. Food and Non-Alcoholic drink’s index increased by 0.56% due to an increment in price of some food items. Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels’ Index, increased by 0.28% due to a rise in cost of common cooking fuels. The Transport index increased by 0.30% due to higher costs of petrol, matatu/bus fares and parking charges --> KNBS

Good news this.
Calling on banks to reduce their lending rates. then we can smile here at the Equities corner!
@SufficientlyP
kryptonite
#626 Posted : Tuesday, April 01, 2014 11:05:35 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/1/2010
Posts: 272
Location: Nairobi
mwekez@ji wrote:
murchr wrote:
The size of Kenya’s economy could increase by up to a fifth this year after the scheduled revision of data is completed, research by Standard Chartered Bank Plc indicates.

In 2012 Kenya’s GDP was put at Sh3.44 trillion but this could rise by Sh688 billion to Sh4.128 trillion once the underestimation is corrected.

“Near-term, attention will focus on the routine rebasing of Kenyan GDP statistics. Official growth figures are at odds with other evidence, suggesting some underestimation of economic activity over time,” said Razia Khan, head of research on Africa at StanChart Plc.

Good or bad?

http://www.businessdailyafrica....6/-/s2puvyz/-/index.html


;-) Cant be bad

“It is plausible that Kenya’s GDP will be revised up by circa 20 per cent with updated survey data, most likely in Q2-2014,” said Ms Khan.

She said the revision would likely improve key credit metrics such as the average per-capita income, the fiscal and current account deficits when measured as a percentage of GDP, as well as public debt ratios.

“An upward revision to GDP would help explain Kenya’s more favourable revenue mobilisation ratios compared with most of its peers, although this also reflects Kenya’s better-established private sector,” she said.



I like the sound of this! So circa $48 billion.

The harder you work, the luckier you get
murchr
#627 Posted : Thursday, April 10, 2014 6:09:20 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
Saw on TV yesterday that Comcraft Group is looking into listing into the NSE...any more details?
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
mwekez@ji
#628 Posted : Thursday, April 10, 2014 6:55:38 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
murchr wrote:
Saw on TV yesterday that Comcraft Group is looking into listing into the NSE...any more details?


... to list in 2 to 3 years ... found it to be quite far. many things could change by then

---> http://in.reuters.com/article/2...ft-idINBREA380HY20140409
mwekez@ji
#629 Posted : Thursday, April 10, 2014 7:06:45 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
New Construction Rules to End China's Market Control

Foreign firms undertaking civil works in Kenya will be required to bid for just one project and do it in a joint venture with a local firm, the National Construction Authority has said.

The authority vice chair, Isabella Wachira said this will happen if proposed regulations by the NCA become law.

She said they are hopeful that the regulations will be enacted by the National Assembly which is currently scrutinizing the proposal.

"Foreign firms will be registered to do one project and our aim is to have these firms entrench their construction technology to local firms.

http://allafrica.com/stories/201404100679.html
mwekez@ji
#630 Posted : Thursday, April 10, 2014 8:43:28 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
Kenyan Debt Beats Peers as Market Awaits Eurobond: Africa Credit http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2...obond-africa-credit.html
murchr
#631 Posted : Friday, April 11, 2014 3:37:24 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
mwekez@ji wrote:
murchr wrote:
Saw on TV yesterday that Comcraft Group is looking into listing into the NSE...any more details?


... to list in 2 to 3 years ... found it to be quite far. many things could change by then

---> http://in.reuters.com/article/2...ft-idINBREA380HY20140409


2-3 years.....they aint serious
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
hisah
#632 Posted : Friday, April 11, 2014 6:11:33 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
murchr wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
murchr wrote:
Saw on TV yesterday that Comcraft Group is looking into listing into the NSE...any more details?


... to list in 2 to 3 years ... found it to be quite far. many things could change by then

---> http://in.reuters.com/article/2...ft-idINBREA380HY20140409


2-3 years.....they aint serious

A commodo industrial play this will be and larger than EACL. Should be an interesting listing depending on what biz the group floats.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
hisah
#633 Posted : Monday, April 14, 2014 10:55:31 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
I don't like what I see here. Ascending triangle as the compression towards 87-87.50 zone intensifies towards a breakout... KES about to take it in the chin Sad

$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Kausha
#634 Posted : Monday, April 14, 2014 11:56:58 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/8/2007
Posts: 808
kryptonite wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
murchr wrote:
The size of Kenya’s economy could increase by up to a fifth this year after the scheduled revision of data is completed, research by Standard Chartered Bank Plc indicates.

In 2012 Kenya’s GDP was put at Sh3.44 trillion but this could rise by Sh688 billion to Sh4.128 trillion once the underestimation is corrected.

“Near-term, attention will focus on the routine rebasing of Kenyan GDP statistics. Official growth figures are at odds with other evidence, suggesting some underestimation of economic activity over time,” said Razia Khan, head of research on Africa at StanChart Plc.

Good or bad?

http://www.businessdailyafrica....6/-/s2puvyz/-/index.html


;-) Cant be bad

“It is plausible that Kenya’s GDP will be revised up by circa 20 per cent with updated survey data, most likely in Q2-2014,” said Ms Khan.

She said the revision would likely improve key credit metrics such as the average per-capita income, the fiscal and current account deficits when measured as a percentage of GDP, as well as public debt ratios.

“An upward revision to GDP would help explain Kenya’s more favourable revenue mobilisation ratios compared with most of its peers, although this also reflects Kenya’s better-established private sector,” she said.



I like the sound of this! So circa $48 billion.




In real terms a horrible move for the current tax payers and future tax payers - a daft way of increasing debt capacity and entrenching large scale wastage of resources. Rebasing GDP when the economy in at a standstill and little effort is going towards enhancing key drivers of economic growth smirks of mischief and incompetence on the part of the economic leadership of the country. UK ought to fire some guys. Reminds me of the same rebasing of the inflation basket and look where we are at 7% and likely to hit 10% if the Almighty continues with the ongoing water rationing problem.

So now we are a $ 50billion economy and our debt is already at 51% before the Eurobond with no net repayments over the last 3 years (all maturing debt is always refinanced by the new borrowing). Reminds me of Enron.
Kausha
#635 Posted : Monday, April 14, 2014 12:19:35 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/8/2007
Posts: 808
mwekez@ji wrote:
New Construction Rules to End China's Market Control

Foreign firms undertaking civil works in Kenya will be required to bid for just one project and do it in a joint venture with a local firm, the National Construction Authority has said.

The authority vice chair, Isabella Wachira said this will happen if proposed regulations by the NCA become law.

She said they are hopeful that the regulations will be enacted by the National Assembly which is currently scrutinizing the proposal.

"Foreign firms will be registered to do one project and our aim is to have these firms entrench their construction technology to local firms.

http://allafrica.com/stories/201404100679.html


"Joint Venture" and there lies the problem. The authority VC and her board of directors shouldn't take us for a ride. This how they plan to retire I suppose. Local content via Joint Venture in a country where corruption reeks to the high heavens yaawaaa madam we are not stupid.

Where people are progressive and free of too much corruption local content is achieved by ensuring foreign contractors have an overwhelming minimum cap of key technical staff as locals say 90% of engineers, foremen and plant operators etc. This means then as a foreign company if I can't find the necessary skills I set up my own training school or set up a JV with a university. For a foreign company to set up a training facility you surely can't limit me to a single contractual job. I need more jobs to justify the investment in the training program. The benefits of this approach are obvious, we have more skilled personnel in large numbers who can risk their capital in future and be the 'local chinese' or can take the same expertise to the counties and do credible work. If we training schools even better because we have skilled people being developed at a faster rate than they are being absorbed. One of the weaknesses in our labor force is that we lack skills and demonstrated expertise but are very educated.

Now what this law portends purposefully or ignorantly is tell us they are setting up a law to ensure as board members and their kin will from hencheforth be wealthy and all we need to do is support these laws which say before you bid you must select one rent seeker aka local company and by the way you only bid one job at a time so that we can have as many chinese companies coming in and as many rent seekers - local companies coming up in other words proliferation of rent seekers. We don't have to be lawyers to seek the mischief and loopholes in the proposed law. A simple question for the board and the repugnant law, how do you limit the number of brief case companies aka rent seeker from participating and how do you ensure skills transfer from the Chinese company to the brief case staff who will be ghost workers anyway.

Kausha
#636 Posted : Monday, April 14, 2014 12:51:09 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/8/2007
Posts: 808
mwekez@ji wrote:
New Construction Rules to End China's Market Control

Foreign firms undertaking civil works in Kenya will be required to bid for just one project and do it in a joint venture with a local firm, the National Construction Authority has said.

The authority vice chair, Isabella Wachira said this will happen if proposed regulations by the NCA become law.

She said they are hopeful that the regulations will be enacted by the National Assembly which is currently scrutinizing the proposal.

"Foreign firms will be registered to do one project and our aim is to have these firms entrench their construction technology to local firms.

http://allafrica.com/stories/201404100679.html


"Joint Venture" and there lies the problem. The authority VC and her board of directors shouldn't take us for a ride. This how they plan to retire I suppose. Local content via Joint Venture in a country where corruption reeks to the high heavens yaawaaa madam we are not stupid.

Where people are progressive and free of too much corruption local content is achieved by ensuring foreign contractors have an overwhelming minimum cap of key technical staff as locals say 90% of engineers, foremen and plant operators etc. This means then as a foreign company if I can't find the necessary skills I set up my own training school or set up a JV with a university. For a foreign company to set up a training facility you surely can't limit me to a single contractual job. I need more jobs to justify the investment in the training program. The benefits of this approach are obvious, we have more skilled personnel in large numbers who can risk their capital in future and be the 'local chinese' or can take the same expertise to the counties and do credible work. If we training schools even better because we have skilled people being developed at a faster rate than they are being absorbed. One of the weaknesses in our labor force is that we lack skills and demonstrated expertise but are very educated.

Now what this law portends purposefully or ignorantly is tell us they are setting up a law to ensure as board members and their kin will from hencheforth be wealthy and all we need to do is support these laws which say before you bid you must select one rent seeker aka local company and by the way you only bid one job at a time so that we can have as many chinese companies coming in and as many rent seekers - local companies coming up in other words proliferation of rent seekers. We don't have to be lawyers to seek the mischief and loopholes in the proposed law. A simple question for the board and the repugnant law, how do you limit the number of brief case companies aka rent seeker from participating and how do you ensure skills transfer from the Chinese company to the brief case staff who will be ghost workers anyway.

Cde Monomotapa
#637 Posted : Monday, April 14, 2014 1:29:12 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
^On the flip, and on a day like this, Eng. students must be encouraged to sit through campus as such policy initiatives stand to benefit them directly. Furthermore, they can form chamas and bid for TCL (Civicon) while they are at it!

As a side note, the honorable members of this profession are renown for their suave and qualifications to the hilt smile if you know what I mean.. So let's not knock their hustle just yet. Let's see..

Also, HF's technical school initiative will make a lot of sense by creating that local skill pool.
Ericsson
#638 Posted : Tuesday, April 15, 2014 6:47:50 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,702
Location: NAIROBI
According to cabinet secretary Finance--Mr Rotich;the government will be spending about ksh.300 billion in repayment of debt in the 2014/2015 financial year
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
hisah
#639 Posted : Tuesday, April 15, 2014 8:22:23 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Labour wars - http://mobile.nation.co....l/-/31mwa2/-/index.html

Persistent labour wars depict a stagnant or econ slowdown with visible or hidden inflation. So far industrials are out of the money, agri is facing the same and tourism too. Something will snap very soon, eurobond or not... USDKES will signal...

Peak time for tourism, but humble pies this easter. Out of the monies - http://mobile.nation.co....ml/-/k50k3n/-/index.html
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
hisah
#640 Posted : Tuesday, April 15, 2014 8:34:49 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Next signal, forex accounts that earn interest as fx drought shows up... This time it's different than 2011.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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