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How to tell NSE has bottomed out
Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 985 Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
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hisah wrote:BAT sheds 9% as NSE20 continues to find 5000 a tough nut to crack. A few weeks ago BAT was melting up on fumes all the way to 630 and now facing strong rejection. EABL as expected was rejected before touching 280. This one if it loses the 220 support level, the slide will be cold. Simba and member have stalled. Last peg is mpesa bank which reports in May after which no financial news tail winds for NSE20... Sideways markets are tough for traders. Long term camp will soon start getting overcrowded. EABL is a strange one.When it is almost sliding,bids build up to defend 260.My guess is a flat lining at 260-265 before an eventual breakdown below 250.Noted that bids,however huge,have always been swallowed by supply
“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 6/17/2009 Posts: 1,619
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hisah wrote:BAT sheds 9% as NSE20 continues to find 5000 a tough nut to crack. A few weeks ago BAT was melting up on fumes all the way to 630 and now facing strong rejection. EABL as expected was rejected before touching 280. This one if it loses the 220 support level, the slide will be cold. Simba and member have stalled. Last peg is mpesa bank which reports in May after which no financial news tail winds for NSE20... Sideways markets are tough for traders. Long term camp will soon start getting overcrowded. @hisah..the BAT drop ex dividend was to be expected,something akin to what Bamburi is doing now.The melt up you mention was in the run up to book closure. I agree most counters have stalled,direction still being sought.The first quarter report for banks,capital gains tax introduction or not,the Eurobond(is it ever happening)are all events which could direct more significant market movements. The sideways market like you say is very hard to make money in,and worse is the lack of volumes when prices fall... when one thinks a good entry price has been attained.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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hisah wrote: Silently floating up as sellers retreat from 12 - 12.50. The 3mth chart is forming an ascending triangle which means if the bulls pile in the pressure, 12.50 resistance will breakdown opening up 13 - 13.50 as the next targets. VWAP closes @12.75 with a high of 13.
Breakout on the ascending triangle round 2 as the resistance @12.50 folds. Off to the races again just like @7.50 with thin supply... The Yu mobile deal fallout has been digested. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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hisah wrote:hisah wrote:Silently floating up as sellers retreat from 12 - 12.50. The 3mth chart is forming an ascending triangle which means if the bulls pile in the pressure, 12.50 resistance will breakdown opening up 13 - 13.50 as the next targets. VWAP closes @12.75 with a high of 13.
Breakout on the ascending triangle round 2 as the resistance @12.50 folds. Off to the races again just like @7.50 with thin supply... The Yu mobile deal fallout has been digested. This is the 2nd time the LTP is 13:00 lets see how long it shall last "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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murchr wrote:hisah wrote:hisah wrote:Silently floating up as sellers retreat from 12 - 12.50. The 3mth chart is forming an ascending triangle which means if the bulls pile in the pressure, 12.50 resistance will breakdown opening up 13 - 13.50 as the next targets. VWAP closes @12.75 with a high of 13.
Breakout on the ascending triangle round 2 as the resistance @12.50 folds. Off to the races again just like @7.50 with thin supply... The Yu mobile deal fallout has been digested. This is the 2nd time the LTP is 13:00 lets see how long it shall last The break has comes weeks before the results. It has legs until the day of the results where I expect some selling pressure. For now 13 - 13.50 or higher as long as 11-11.50 is not broken. If it clocks 15, the selling will be strong!
@philanga - did u decamp completely?$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,220 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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hisah wrote:murchr wrote:hisah wrote:hisah wrote:Silently floating up as sellers retreat from 12 - 12.50. The 3mth chart is forming an ascending triangle which means if the bulls pile in the pressure, 12.50 resistance will breakdown opening up 13 - 13.50 as the next targets. VWAP closes @12.75 with a high of 13.
Breakout on the ascending triangle round 2 as the resistance @12.50 folds. Off to the races again just like @7.50 with thin supply... The Yu mobile deal fallout has been digested. This is the 2nd time the LTP is 13:00 lets see how long it shall last The break has comes weeks before the results. It has legs until the day of the results where I expect some selling pressure. For now 13 - 13.50 or higher as long as 11-11.50 is not broken. If it clocks 15, the selling will be strong!
@philanga - did u decamp completely? Sold out at 12 and was waiting for a slight pull back to get back in and ride till accounts release mid next month. Seems the breakout cought me off-guard  Re-invested in memba as I see potential with MVNO licence awarded through Finserve Africa,its subsidiary,and also to grab the 1.5 bob div  ,KQ & Keno. @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,677 Location: NAIROBI
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Price correction taking place in Athi River Mining. Counter was trading at the highest PE in the market at around 33. Price correction will continue till the counter trades at the ranges of ksh.50-60 per share Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,182 Location: nairobi
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Another expensive counter was scangroup at 70's but has taken a good beating "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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mlennyma wrote:Another expensive counter was scangroup at 70's but has taken a good beating Scan could still be having a high P/E because of that massive dilution by cavendish The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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Ericsson wrote:Price correction taking place in Athi River Mining.
Counter was trading at the highest PE in the market at around 33.
Price correction will continue till the counter trades at the ranges of ksh.50-60 per share you forgot something. "Says my crystal ball" The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Aguytrying wrote:Ericsson wrote:Price correction taking place in Athi River Mining.
Counter was trading at the highest PE in the market at around 33.
Price correction will continue till the counter trades at the ranges of ksh.50-60 per share you forgot something. "Says my crystal ball" The floor for ARM is around 50 - 55 as stated by @ericsson. Also the same zone is where the equity loan conversion (by Africa Finance Corporation) had the strike price of $3.20. This works out to KES 268 back in 2012 which is KES 53.60 post split ratio 1:5. I had discussed this in a thread between ARM or BAMB. Can't remember the thread. Equity loan conversion option was for a board seat.
So ARM's PPT or DNT (don't touch level) is 53.60
BD covered the story back in July 2012 - http://bit.ly/1hxLgTU
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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hisah wrote:murchr wrote:hisah wrote:hisah wrote:Silently floating up as sellers retreat from 12 - 12.50. The 3mth chart is forming an ascending triangle which means if the bulls pile in the pressure, 12.50 resistance will breakdown opening up 13 - 13.50 as the next targets. VWAP closes @12.75 with a high of 13.
Breakout on the ascending triangle round 2 as the resistance @12.50 folds. Off to the races again just like @7.50 with thin supply... The Yu mobile deal fallout has been digested. This is the 2nd time the LTP is 13:00 lets see how long it shall last The break has comes weeks before the results. It has legs until the day of the results where I expect some selling pressure. For now 13 - 13.50 or higher as long as 11-11.50 is not broken. If it clocks 15, the selling will be strong!
@philanga - did u decamp completely? And someone made an article off this "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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at the quietest of times, i will load KP in bucketload. and at very juicy price from the look of things. …. @hisah, what do the charts say about this counter
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/3/2014 Posts: 257
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mwekez@ji wrote:at the quietest of times, i will load KP in bucketload. and at very juicy price from the look of things. …. @hisah, what do the charts say about this counter @mwekez@ji expound on "the quietest of times"
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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snipermnoma wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:at the quietest of times, i will load KP in bucketload. and at very juicy price from the look of things. …. @hisah, what do the charts say about this counter @mwekez@ji expound on "the quietest of times" When most arent interested. Like its happening
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 985 Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
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Safaricom..Bulls are HIGH on weed. Next stop 14.20-14.50 EABL warming up to break the 280 resistance
“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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mwekez@ji wrote:at the quietest of times, i will load KP in bucketload. and at very juicy price from the look of things. …. @hisah, what do the charts say about this counter KP is on my radar. Started acquiring quietly this month $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,182 Location: nairobi
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Safcom money or the box???Cfci money or the box???????? "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/7/2012 Posts: 11,908
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mlennyma wrote:Safcom money or the box???Cfci money or the box???????? Next is CFC STANBIC Bank & Kenya Re In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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hisah wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:at the quietest of times, i will load KP in bucketload. and at very juicy price from the look of things. …. @hisah, what do the charts say about this counter KP is on my radar. Started acquiring quietly this month
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