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Safaricom results-what's your take?
Rank: Member Joined: 7/3/2008 Posts: 238
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50% increase in sub base... good thing.. then profit by 2%? I know you are all asking... But what about ONE COMM acquisition? 10yrs from today.. good returns..
wish is yesterday,hope is tomorrow.. today we make or break!
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Rank: Member Joined: 7/7/2008 Posts: 124
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See!Told you so:nothing and the profit looks like a dividend of less than ndururu(five cents).But I flunked maths...could be wrong!!!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/17/2008 Posts: 23,365 Location: Nairobi
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@vituvingisana...read the report,it says 98% of mobile users are prepaid customers. Post paid customers are heavy users but they form a very tiny percentage of mobile phone users!!!! Make money.....then you will enjoy all the fine things in life!!! ..."Wewe ni mtu mdogo sana....na mwenye amekuandika pia ni mtu mdogo sana!".
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/19/2006 Posts: 17
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Guys,mmesikia tena na tena kwa muda mrefu sana - hii share ni ya 2bob,max 2.50 each. Wale wanazo sasa,jiulize,pple expected safcon to make 40B end year or what? For now,down it goes -12.5% so far...
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Rank: Member Joined: 2/12/2008 Posts: 345
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Okay okay... This horse is dead. We don't need flog it any more. Haisaidii. Someone post somethin new. Hopefully on stocks!! Safcom has peaked for this time..watch out for new trend...when to get in. Regardless of co performance there's a bottom for this counter..about sh3 and a high of sh4.80....so just plan ur way round that. Please note...n note wisely....for fundamentalists!...its still gud buy for long term. I remember SIB n d&b projection of it settlin between 12-15...so did Aly Khan. Most others where busy scramblin for client to bother post analysis... Same fundamentals still play..if it was a buy at 8...how much more at 3bob...or lower... At this point its not about fundamentals..its about timing. When to buy..and how. At once or spread buy. Happy investing.
' I have heard of You,o Lord. Now mine eyes have seen thee!! Baal-Perazim.. The Lord of the Breakthrough!!'
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Rank: Member Joined: 8/25/2008 Posts: 144
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@ novester,
read carefully,hakuna interim dividend. the 2bn you are referring to is what was paid during the period but for results of prevoius periods. if there were,w'd have been reflected as a biiiiiiiiiiig amt in the 2008 b/sheet as dividend payable.
lets watch the mkt now.
Life is too short.
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Rank: Member Joined: 5/8/2007 Posts: 709
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Rank: Elder Joined: 11/13/2008 Posts: 1,565
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At least this was an 'honest' release - their IPO prospectus (of which I hear there were two versions - pre and post trading) indicating,in very fine print that 'subscriber numbers' were actually the SIM cards they had sold - never mind that very many were bought as part of promotions,by tourists and business people,etc - and discarded. As end 2007 they claimed to have around 9 million subscribers.
I also agree,50% increase in subs,marginal decline in ARPU but still only 2% profit? Fine,the acquisition of OneCom is something,but still? Its like now that its publicly listed,there is less reason to 'share the harvest'.
The problem with equality is that we desire that it be with those that have more than us rather that those that have less
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Rank: Member Joined: 5/12/2008 Posts: 59
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Now that the turnover has gone up by 20% and EBITDA up by 16% how do we expect the share to behave?
Is it a good buy. Is it still available in the market in plenty?
Your greatest glory is not in never failing,but in rising every time you fail.
Persistence means taking pains to overcome every obstacle,to do all that's necessary to reach your goal.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 7/8/2008 Posts: 947
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And how the profits have gone down,the cost of sales have gone up and apru has gone down!!
Weka all facts on the table!!
This share is going down!!
D&B sold us an egg for a song!!
SK ALUMNI (Alcoholic Liason and Undergarments Manager of Nakedness Internationally)
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Rank: Member Joined: 6/25/2008 Posts: 6
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LOL! Did anyone catch that 'analyst' from SIB on CNBC Africa (Wednesday Morning) right after MJ's interview?
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/7/2007 Posts: 11,935 Location: Nairobi
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When you include the two 'one off' items of Kshs 1.2B and 533M,doesn't the pre-tax profit show an overall drop of around 15%...??.....Nakwambia......Hii itaenda negative......!!!! Guka wa bijuti... Nothing great was ever achieved without enthusiasm.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/21/2006 Posts: 1,590
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That Ksh533m is for fx gain on a loan...Anybody hold East Africa Portland shares? It could be Ksh1bn loss next yr. Or in the 2nd half. As I mentioned earlier,Safcom also got lower tax rate... Sell and wait until next March www.mjengakenya.blogspot.comSehemu ndio nyumba
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Rank: Member Joined: 2/12/2008 Posts: 345
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@kamau mugi.. I had a serious runnin with an analyst from SIB during the IPO arguing that Safcom volumes are doomed but these guys had a collective vision that it would touch 15by mid december!!.. I swear there are better brains in sk! Nothin against SIB but listenin to the analyst on tv made me wonder what advice they give to clients!..unless of course its advice in line with 2030vision.
' I have heard of You,o Lord. Now mine eyes have seen thee!! Baal-Perazim.. The Lord of the Breakthrough!!'
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/4/2008 Posts: 48
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It would not be prudent to dismiss the guys selling off as a 6month bet/wait is really not gambling and many actually need their money and had been advised to expect price gain but oops. However i insist it's a big mistake,read that balance sheet,their capital expenditure is twice this 9billion profit for very good reasons,to force a higher profit like 15billion for MJ to please folk is so so easy. Affordable communication to wananchi is a Safaricom vision being built in many ways. Forget Mpesa,This fibre optic cable being laid in kawangware/waithaka/dandora everywhere the trenches have been dug,picture landline calls for say 50cents per minute and supersonic internet in kawangware and every home for 200bob per month,then tell me safcom can be compared to Zain or for that matter any Kenya Company in anyway. At these prices,if you have money buy,i guarantee Safaricom will be the first billion dollar profit company in the Region. This stories of vuka touching safcom in anyway are baseless,Zain has little vision,it was destroyed by the first kafrench CEO simply because of the Key CEO attribute,VISION,let the price fall Learn something new everyday Learn Something New Every Day!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/3/2008 Posts: 4,057 Location: Gwitu
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As a new investor I find this Safcom a bit confusing .My decision is to do nothing.Just forget the shares I bought and see whether they will appreciate in three years! I am a self made man and I owe my lack of success to nobody. Truth forever on the scaffold
Wrong forever on the throne
(James Russell Rowell)
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Rank: Member Joined: 3/31/2008 Posts: 5
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@McReggae,
Post paid customers may currently be 2% of Safcon's clients but you can rest assured that if Safaricom continues discriminating against them during promotions as it has been doing,they will all switch to Pre-paid. A good example is the current promotion: think about it - Practically all Post-paid customers spend more than shs. 3000 a month yet during the current promotion,they are to make calls at shs. 4 a minute.
Compare this to the guy on Pre-paid who buys a shs. 1000 scratch card,despite spending only 1/3 of what the person on post-paid spends,he gets to talks at shs.3 a minute and does not have to pay a fixed charge at the end of the month. You come to realise that Post-paid customers are getting a raw deal.
@ All of you still on Safaricom Post-paid,
Why haven't you switched to Pre-paid yet?
Me Jigsaw Puzzle Man.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 5/27/2008 Posts: 3,760
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@kenyan enigma,I was on post paid until I saw a mechanic winning 10M and I couldn't take part 'because I was postpaid'. By going prepaid I increased my chances of winning subsequent raffles from nil to 0.0000001. I also save on 200+VAT standing charge. However I greatly miss customer service 200. The prepaid 100 is joke of the century.
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Rank: Member Joined: 10/6/2008 Posts: 21
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on safcom I believe the results were good and in my view pple should buy the shares before the prices start rising next year.
Watu wachangamuke
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Rank: Member Joined: 11/18/2008 Posts: 1
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Safcom really needs to sort out it's balance sheet,Current liabilities outstrip Current assets by 2:1. Profit after tax is down (EBITDA is not a a very useful measure ).This is not exactly blue -chip territory. ARPU is going down and will not fare better with the entry of competition. My advise is sell when you can break even. It will be an uphill task for the company to be able to increase shareholder value in the near future. A P.E of about 10 is not bad but the proof of the pudding is in the financial statements.
To invest successfully over a lifetime does not require a stratospheric IQ,unusual business insights or inside information. What's needed is a sound intellectual framework for making decisions and ability to keep emotions from corroding the framework- WARREN E. BUFFETT
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Safaricom results-what's your take?
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