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Bear run after FY
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Candlesticks
#1 Posted : Thursday, April 03, 2014 8:12:38 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 12/16/2013
Posts: 49
Location: Nairobi
Is 2014 bound to be the year we witness another bear run at the Bourse. Offcourse not to surpass the 2004 and 2009 bear runs where the NASI slumped to 2500 levels but i cant see any catalyst for the market.
The EUROBond looks unlikely to happen based on the the unease in International financial markets following the dovish FED sentiments on taper, the ongoing forward guidance in UK and offcourse the imminent failure of Abenomics in Japan.

I fear Q1 2014 results for most of these companies will be slower especially financials.

It will be interesting to watch this unfold but i hope we shall have good weather conditions and i can run to agricultural stocks whose performance.
With slowed production of coffee in Latin America likely to go down.

What say you?
"'Nowadays people know the price of everything and the value of nothing.' - Oscar Wilde.
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dunkang
#2 Posted : Thursday, April 03, 2014 9:49:04 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2011
Posts: 4,818
Location: -1.2107, 36.8831
This time round its about picking carefully, not just any stock.
Receive with simplicity everything that happens to you.” ― Rashi

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jawgey
#3 Posted : Thursday, April 03, 2014 10:30:00 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/13/2014
Posts: 386
Location: Denmark
Seems a real bear resurrects after every 5years.. I sense it in the offing
Seeing is believing
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streetwise
#4 Posted : Thursday, April 03, 2014 12:22:47 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 6/23/2011
Posts: 1,740
Location: Nairobi
Looks so...Since we have all in agreement after learning from history we can plan and act to be rich when the sun rises after the bear run...
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Angelica _ann
#5 Posted : Thursday, April 03, 2014 12:36:10 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/7/2012
Posts: 11,908
That would be welcome to about 3000-3200 levels. Time to be liquid ...
In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
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mkeiy
#6 Posted : Thursday, April 03, 2014 12:52:20 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/27/2012
Posts: 851
Location: Nairobi
Majority seem to be in agreement there will be a bear run.

Is Mr. Market going to allow such predictability to reign?

A correction yes, a shave to 3,000 no. Not even down to 3,900.

But then again, what do i know.
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gatoho
#7 Posted : Thursday, April 03, 2014 4:44:10 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/1/2010
Posts: 511
Location: kandara, Murang'a
mkeiy wrote:
Majority seem to be in agreement there will be a bear run.

Is Mr. Market going to allow such predictability to reign?

A correction yes, a shave to 3,000 no. Not even down to 3,900.

But then again, what do i know.


Me thinks that the oil find plus greater regional integration will cushion the marketmar
Foresight..
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Aguytrying
#8 Posted : Thursday, April 03, 2014 8:04:17 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
last year I asked. 2012=rally, 2013=rally , 2014=?
surely not another rally, it can't always be up up up. if I could guess nse 20 does +-10% this year
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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sparkly
#9 Posted : Friday, April 04, 2014 12:28:37 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
dunkang wrote:
This time round its about picking carefully, not just any stock.


Word.

CFC, Kengen, Kenya Re... What am left with. No more buying.
Life is short. Live passionately.
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mibbz
#10 Posted : Friday, April 04, 2014 2:02:47 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/18/2011
Posts: 448
Candlesticks wrote:
Is 2014 bound to be the year we witness another bear run at the Bourse. Offcourse not to surpass the 2004 and 2009 bear runs where the NASI slumped to 2500 levels but i cant see any catalyst for the market.
The EUROBond looks unlikely to happen based on the the unease in International financial markets following the dovish FED sentiments on taper, the ongoing forward guidance in UK and offcourse the imminent failure of Abenomics in Japan.

I fear Q1 2014 results for most of these companies will be slower especially financials.

It will be interesting to watch this unfold but i hope we shall have good weather conditions and i can run to agricultural stocks whose performance.
With slowed production of coffee in Latin America likely to go down.

What say you?




Amazing analysis but the eurobond shall happen;i am certain book building has began and potential investors are just waiting for the official launch.
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mibbz
#11 Posted : Friday, April 04, 2014 2:08:17 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/18/2011
Posts: 448
Am currently in KQ and KK speculative with some cash,wondering whether to jump into centum speculative or coop.very little action coming up;as always May-Oct its drought with one or two star performers.trying to single them this year but having a hard time
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hisah
#12 Posted : Friday, April 04, 2014 7:02:15 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Wazua winter - when it takes days for the top 10 investor stock section threads to rotate as well as many comments come from veteran members and as usual lots of guests peeping to see anything new.

I like where this is going smile

Un-crowded market phase for discounts...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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newfarer
#13 Posted : Friday, April 04, 2014 7:26:56 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 3/19/2010
Posts: 3,504
Location: Uganda
hisah wrote:
Wazua winter - when it takes days for the top 10 investor stock section threads to rotate as well as many comments come from veteran members and as usual lots of guests peeping to see anything new.

I like where this is going smile

Un-crowded market phase for discounts...

also when a stocksguru turns to a sheikh ni kubaya kipande hii.
punda amecheka
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dunkang
#14 Posted : Friday, April 04, 2014 8:47:38 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2011
Posts: 4,818
Location: -1.2107, 36.8831
newfarer wrote:
hisah wrote:
Wazua winter - when it takes days for the top 10 investor stock section threads to rotate as well as many comments come from veteran members and as usual lots of guests peeping to see anything new.

I like where this is going smile

Un-crowded market phase for discounts...

also when a stocksguru turns to a sheikh ni kubaya kipande hii.

Blame it on HomeAfrika blind speculative play.
Receive with simplicity everything that happens to you.” ― Rashi

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mkeiy
#15 Posted : Friday, April 04, 2014 9:11:49 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/27/2012
Posts: 851
Location: Nairobi
dunkang wrote:
newfarer wrote:
hisah wrote:
Wazua winter - when it takes days for the top 10 investor stock section threads to rotate as well as many comments come from veteran members and as usual lots of guests peeping to see anything new.

I like where this is going smile

Un-crowded market phase for discounts...

also when a stocksguru turns to a sheikh ni kubaya kipande hii.

Blame it on HomeAfrika blind speculative play.



Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
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mulla
#16 Posted : Friday, April 04, 2014 9:35:26 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/15/2013
Posts: 301
Going to be a flat non-exciting 2014...don't think market is going to crash this year though. Even bonus issue or stellar results have not excited counters like NIC, Coop (except CIC and CFC according to my recall).Going to be a modest returns year involving careful stock picking...if liquid may be best to look at other investment avenues.
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Angelica _ann
#17 Posted : Friday, April 04, 2014 9:50:35 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/7/2012
Posts: 11,908
mkeiy wrote:
dunkang wrote:
newfarer wrote:
hisah wrote:
Wazua winter - when it takes days for the top 10 investor stock section threads to rotate as well as many comments come from veteran members and as usual lots of guests peeping to see anything new.

I like where this is going smile

Un-crowded market phase for discounts...

also when a stocksguru turns to a sheikh ni kubaya kipande hii.

Blame it on HomeAfrika blind speculative play.



Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly

smile smile smile
In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
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Impunity
#18 Posted : Friday, April 04, 2014 9:59:12 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 3/2/2009
Posts: 26,328
Location: Masada
Angelica _ann wrote:
mkeiy wrote:
dunkang wrote:
newfarer wrote:
hisah wrote:
Wazua winter - when it takes days for the top 10 investor stock section threads to rotate as well as many comments come from veteran members and as usual lots of guests peeping to see anything new.

I like where this is going smile

Un-crowded market phase for discounts...

also when a stocksguru turns to a sheikh ni kubaya kipande hii.

Blame it on HomeAfrika blind speculative play.



Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly

smile smile smile


Applause Applause
Portfolio: Sold
You know you've made it when you get a parking space for your yatcht.
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Nabwire
#19 Posted : Friday, April 04, 2014 9:17:58 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 7/22/2011
Posts: 1,325
Impunity wrote:
Angelica _ann wrote:
mkeiy wrote:
dunkang wrote:
newfarer wrote:
hisah wrote:
Wazua winter - when it takes days for the top 10 investor stock section threads to rotate as well as many comments come from veteran members and as usual lots of guests peeping to see anything new.

I like where this is going smile

Un-crowded market phase for discounts...

also when a stocksguru turns to a sheikh ni kubaya kipande hii.

Blame it on HomeAfrika blind speculative play.



Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly

smile smile smile


Applause Applause


smile Laughing out loudly When the tide comes in, sh!t always floats to the top!
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babaroy
#20 Posted : Friday, April 04, 2014 10:08:32 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 12/11/2013
Posts: 63
A 30% fall in share prices has been predicted in some quarters. Under these circumstances, bargain hunting becomes modus operandi
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