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Kengen cash call put on hold
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mthaka
#1 Posted : Thursday, March 27, 2014 10:30:11 PM
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Joined: 9/30/2013
Posts: 254
as mentioned earlier this rights issue might not happen
http://www.nation.co.ke/...80/-/ulogw8/-/index.html
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georgegop
#2 Posted : Friday, March 28, 2014 7:59:06 AM
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Joined: 8/30/2010
Posts: 183
Location: Migingo
There is a big line between what will not happen and what has been pushed forward!
KenGen delays Sh15bn rights issue to July
Don't Work for Money, Let Money Work for You..
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mlennyma
#3 Posted : Friday, March 28, 2014 8:15:47 AM
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Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,194
Location: nairobi
it can never be a buy before rights.
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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georgegop
#4 Posted : Friday, March 28, 2014 8:26:21 AM
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Joined: 8/30/2010
Posts: 183
Location: Migingo
"Never" is too strong a word. This market can be highly unpredictable!
Don't Work for Money, Let Money Work for You..
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sparkly
#5 Posted : Friday, March 28, 2014 8:40:08 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
georgegop wrote:
There is a big line between what will not happen and what has been pushed forward!
KenGen delays Sh15bn rights issue to July


They need to do something to prop the price first. As it is the maximum Rights price would be around 10.50.

I would advise them to start with a very small rights of KShs 5B which of course will be oversubscribed and come back with another rights next year. By then the revenues will have started flowing from the new Olkaria projects to support a higher valuation and rights.
Life is short. Live passionately.
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  | | Edit by user: Friday, March 28, 2014 8:44 AM | Reason: Not specified
mwekez@ji
#6 Posted : Friday, March 28, 2014 9:22:35 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
mlennyma wrote:
it can never be a buy before rights.


Am inclined to agree cc@NBK
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Aguytrying
#7 Posted : Friday, March 28, 2014 9:40:59 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
mwekez@ji wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
it can never be a buy before rights.


Am inclined to agree cc@NBK


However if they prop up the price, there may be money to be made. Coz in all fairness, no reason KENGEN shouldn't be 16.00 shillings and above.

I find gava firms cursed by rights issues, other companies share price dont suffer so much during rights
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Aguytrying
#8 Posted : Friday, March 28, 2014 10:01:03 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
sparkly wrote:
georgegop wrote:
There is a big line between what will not happen and what has been pushed forward!
KenGen delays Sh15bn rights issue to July


They need to do something to prop the price first. As it is the maximum Rights price would be around 10.50.

I would advise them to start with a very small rights of KShs 5B which of course will be oversubscribed and come back with another rights next year. By then the revenues will have started flowing from the new Olkaria projects to support a higher valuation and rights.


According to this article. The price comes to about 7.00. 2.21 billion shares*7= ~15.00 billion shillings.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Aguytrying
#9 Posted : Friday, March 28, 2014 10:05:47 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
Aguytrying wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
it can never be a buy before rights.


Am inclined to agree cc@NBK


However if they prop up the price, there may be money to be made. Coz in all fairness, no reason KENGEN shouldn't be 16.00 shillings and above.

I find gava firms cursed by rights issues, other companies share price dont suffer so much during rights


The dilution that will happen here will be nothing to smile about. Kengen has issued 7.78B new shares. 2.21 B will be used for this rights issue. Thats already a half dilution. Say the other 5 B shares are sold to strategic investor(s). Thats another half dultion. So in total say current price divided by 4 is what the dilution will look like if all those 7.78B shares come on board.

And current price divided by 2 is the dilution after the rights issue.

SO YES, NOT A BUY before rights
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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innovator
#10 Posted : Friday, March 28, 2014 10:45:50 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 7/24/2010
Posts: 239
Location: nairobi
sparkly wrote:
georgegop wrote:
There is a big line between what will not happen and what has been pushed forward!
KenGen delays Sh15bn rights issue to July


They need to do something to prop the price first. As it is the maximum Rights price would be around 10.50.

I would advise them to start with a very small rights of KShs 5B which of course will be oversubscribed and come back with another rights next year. By then the revenues will have started flowing from the new Olkaria projects to support a higher valuation and rights.


This is likely to happen, and it is where money may be made.
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