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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
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mnandii
#21 Posted : Monday, March 24, 2014 11:17:56 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
sparkly wrote:
mnandii wrote:
mkeiy wrote:
sparkly wrote:
Jaina wrote:
@ Mnandii whats the conclusion to your analysis in layman terms


Sell your holdings and wait for the prices we last saw in March 2009. In other words the nse will fall by 47%.



Are you guys saying regardless of how the economy is managed,the Nse will always stick to that script?
I don't think so. There will be a correction but not as significant as 2009.

Yes. The script is waves of emotion. You see, all financial markets follow the pattern of human social mood. When people acting collectively have a positive mood, the same is reflected in how they act. So they push the price of the market up. When social mood becomes negative the price of financial iinstruments fall.

So the stock market is a gauge of social mood. And this discussion brings us to social causality. Events outside the market (interest rates, wars etc ) do not determine the path of the market. When CB change rates they are only REACTING to the market! E.G. How comes CB forecasts of the rate of growth are never met? And we continue to trust their ability to determine how the economy fairs?

Social mood determine the direction of the market.

Socionomics Explained


@Mnandii this is a theory and i am sure there are critiques to the theory.

My theory is that the so called boom & bust economic cycles are not inevitable paths but are triggered by the financial industry through monetary expansion & contraction cycles.


No problem. But I believe in order to get the best perspective, you should at least do more research on the subject. At that point then you will be in a very good position to state the merits and demerits.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#22 Posted : Monday, March 24, 2014 11:19:36 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
The Financial/Economic Dichotomy in Social Behavioral Dynamics:
The Socionomic Perspective

Robert R. Prechter, Jr. and Wayne D. Parker

Neoclassical economics does not offer a useful model of finance, because economic and financial
behavior have different motivational dynamics. The law of supply and demand operates among
rational valuers to produce equilibrium in the marketplace for utilitarian goods and services. The
efficient market hypothesis (EMH) is a related model applied to financial markets. The socionomic
theory of finance (STF) posits that contextual differences between economics and finance produce
different behavior, so that in finance the law of supply and demand is irrelevant, and EMH is
inappropriate. In finance, uncertainty about valuations by other homogeneous agents induces
unconscious, non-rational herding, which follows endogenously regulated fluctuations in social
mood, which in turn determine financial fluctuations. This dynamic produces non-mean-reverting
dynamism in financial markets, not equilibrium.

link
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#23 Posted : Monday, March 24, 2014 11:27:54 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
mnandii wrote:
The Financial/Economic Dichotomy in Social Behavioral Dynamics:
The Socionomic Perspective

Robert R. Prechter, Jr. and Wayne D. Parker

Neoclassical economics does not offer a useful model of finance, because economic and financial
behavior have different motivational dynamics. The law of supply and demand operates among
rational valuers to produce equilibrium in the marketplace for utilitarian goods and services. The
efficient market hypothesis (EMH) is a related model applied to financial markets. The socionomic
theory of finance (STF) posits that contextual differences between economics and finance produce
different behavior, so that in finance the law of supply and demand is irrelevant, and EMH is
inappropriate. In finance, uncertainty about valuations by other homogeneous agents induces
unconscious, non-rational herding, which follows endogenously regulated fluctuations in social
mood, which in turn determine financial fluctuations. This dynamic produces non-mean-reverting
dynamism in financial markets, not equilibrium.

link

When a person buys bread, he derives immediate utility from it i.e he can EAT the bread and satisfy his hunger. When you buy shares, you get a share certificate. There is nothing that you can do with the share certificate which can provide immediate utility (i.e you can't EAT it, you can't LIVE in it etc). Your only hope is that someone else will be able to buy the shares from you at a higher price. And that's why the valuations in Financial markets differ from, say, the value of a car.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mkonomtupu
#24 Posted : Monday, March 24, 2014 11:54:21 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 2/10/2010
Posts: 1,001
Location: River Road
Good stuff @mnadii, as a fundamentals I don't rely on the cartoons but I moved out of the equities into the money markets as the general economic mood didn't look good for equities. In my view equities will generally be flat market over the next two years, but all the same a significant correction is welcome
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mchambuzi
#25 Posted : Monday, March 24, 2014 3:19:52 PM
Rank: New-farer

Joined: 11/17/2013
Posts: 80
Location: Juja
Technically if you are bullish safcom you should be bullish NSE20, the two track each other because of the weighted average.
On a long enough timeline, the life expectancy of everyone drops to zero.
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mchambuzi
#26 Posted : Monday, March 24, 2014 3:35:12 PM
Rank: New-farer

Joined: 11/17/2013
Posts: 80
Location: Juja
EABL Bullish set-up
On a long enough timeline, the life expectancy of everyone drops to zero.
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Pesa Nane
#27 Posted : Monday, March 24, 2014 7:06:46 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 5/25/2012
Posts: 4,105
Location: 08c
mchambuzi wrote:
EABL Bullish set-up

C&P

Pesa Nane plans to be shilingi when he grows up.
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mnunuzi
#28 Posted : Monday, March 24, 2014 8:56:43 PM
Rank: New-farer

Joined: 11/15/2013
Posts: 34
Pesa Nane wrote:
mchambuzi wrote:
EABL Bullish set-up

C&P


Thanks. That's a beautiful strong rejection smile
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mnandii
#29 Posted : Tuesday, March 25, 2014 12:56:29 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
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link

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Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#30 Posted : Tuesday, March 25, 2014 1:02:44 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
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Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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