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Realities of Forex Investment
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mnandii
#2501 Posted : Friday, March 21, 2014 9:06:40 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304


Courtesy Elliott Wave International.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#2502 Posted : Friday, March 21, 2014 9:19:29 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
A picture perfect Elliott Wave Count at small degree (1 min chart EURUSD). Notice how the channel determined the top for wave 5 with great accuracy! Channeling is one of the Guidelines of Wave formation. It states that a line drawn passing through the end of wave 3 and parallel to the line connecting the ends of waves 2 and 4 usually projects the end of wave 5 with great accuracy.

The variation of the guideline of channeling is that if wave 3 is almost vertical, and wave 4 is sideways, then the line parallel to the baseline should be drawn from the end of wave 1.

Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#2503 Posted : Saturday, March 22, 2014 9:42:53 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
A little review of wave degrees.


Wave (iii)=wave (i) X 1.618
Wave (iv) is in the process of formation. Notice that it has already touched the area of the previous fourth wave i.e if you look closely you will see that the the top of 'A' has touched 1.3809. 1.3809 is within wave iv.

Wave (iv), by the guideline of alternation, should alternate with wave (ii). Wave (ii) retraced a great deal of wave (i) and has a simpler structure (i.e a double zigzag, ABC -X- ABC). Wave (iv) is already showing a sideways structure and is expected to have a shallower retracement. Wave (iv) should be a FLAT, a TRIANGLE or COMBINATION.

I don't expect 1.3845 to be touched as wave (iv) forms since that would enter the territory of wave (i). This is the rule of overlap. i.e a fourth wave should not enter the territory of the first wave.

Finally, notice that we still have some room for the wave (iv) to continue forming. This fourth wave should be complete when the wave structure is closer to the top parallel channel.

We should look for opportunities next week. Good luck in your trading.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#2504 Posted : Sunday, March 23, 2014 11:48:14 AM
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Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
The Euro Is Not Overvalued (Nor Is Any Other Currency)
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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hisah
#2505 Posted : Monday, March 24, 2014 6:44:07 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
USDCNY raced past 6.20 and tested above 6.21 last week. It's getting funky. The commodo market will get fried as the defaults scale up. The yuan corp bond market will also throw up a number of "unexpected" events...

Yen vs Yuan. How much lower is abe willing to deflate the yen? Does he have any move left? Jap is an aged population vs chingland. Devaluation won't work in jap without job seekers (aging population). Chingland can devalue and get back to 10% GDP growth with ease.

Buy the yen. Abenomics has no legs from an econ perspective. Jap is stuck in deflation until job seekers return - youth return. Euroland is also heading there. Deflation for a long time as jobs disappear due to aging populace.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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mnandii
#2506 Posted : Monday, March 24, 2014 10:13:13 AM
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Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
hisah wrote:
USDCNY raced past 6.20 and tested above 6.21 last week. It's getting funky. The commodo market will get fried as the defaults scale up. The yuan corp bond market will also throw up a number of "unexpected" events...

Yen vs Yuan. How much lower is abe willing to deflate the yen? Does he have any move left? Jap is an aged population vs chingland. Devaluation won't work in jap without job seekers (aging population). Chingland can devalue and get back to 10% GDP growth with ease.

Buy the yen. Abenomics has no legs from an econ perspective. Jap is stuck in deflation until job seekers return - youth return. Euroland is also heading there. Deflation for a long time as jobs disappear due to aging populace.

Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#2507 Posted : Monday, March 24, 2014 11:43:26 AM
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Posts: 2,304
Our fourth wave may be complete. I am looking for opportunity to short the market at current levels.

Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#2508 Posted : Monday, March 24, 2014 9:01:29 PM
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Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
Sad Sad
Appears wave (v) has truncated i.e fifth waves normally go beyond the end of third waves but when they fail to do so it is called a truncation. Let's assess opportunities tomorrow. Night guys.

Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnunuzi
#2509 Posted : Monday, March 24, 2014 9:45:45 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 11/15/2013
Posts: 34
mchambuzi wrote:
BUY EURUSD at 1.3775


We ran the stops. ;-)
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mnandii
#2510 Posted : Tuesday, March 25, 2014 1:20:10 PM
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Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
A small EURUSD long trade at 1.3808 SL 1.3792 TP 1.3877. Let's see how it goes.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#2511 Posted : Wednesday, March 26, 2014 3:10:14 PM
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Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
Quote:
EWI Forex Insider ‏@FX_ElliottWave 18h
$EURUSD matched but didn't break prior low at 1.3749. We have two wave scenarios, both bearish in the end. $USDJPY shows a bullish triangle.


Not my usual pair but am long at 102.395 SL 102.060 TP 103.19
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mchambuzi
#2512 Posted : Wednesday, March 26, 2014 5:15:24 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 11/17/2013
Posts: 80
Location: Juja
How many are in this yen mbus? euryen looking like its about to take off for a run above 142. Just needs some conviction for eurdollar bulls and we have another large stophunt. We are a nearing our usual 1600/1500GMT romp
On a long enough timeline, the life expectancy of everyone drops to zero.
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hisah
#2513 Posted : Wednesday, March 26, 2014 10:13:45 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Troubled FX industry set to defend 'self regulation' - http://reut.rs/1dO8j6L

Quote:
A bruised foreign exchange industry regroups in Berlin this week after months of revelations on alleged collusion and market manipulation that threaten the "self regulation" model it has championed for decades.

The ACI, the main umbrella group for dealers in the world's single biggest financial market, holds its annual world congress at a time of turmoil for the industry, hit by the dismissal or suspension of more than two dozen of its leading lights.

In the highly fragmented, $5 trillion a day market, it is one of the few forums for senior bankers and brokers to discuss a concerted response to the row, which centers around claims that top dealers colluded to move benchmark exchange rates.


Too funny these FX goons camp...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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mnandii
#2514 Posted : Thursday, March 27, 2014 8:11:11 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
mnandii wrote:
Quote:
EWI Forex Insider ‏@FX_ElliottWave 18h
$EURUSD matched but didn't break prior low at 1.3749. We have two wave scenarios, both bearish in the end. $USDJPY shows a bullish triangle.


Not my usual pair but am long at 102.395 SL 102.060 TP 103.19

Didn't work out. Sad
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mchambuzi
#2515 Posted : Friday, March 28, 2014 5:13:03 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 11/17/2013
Posts: 80
Location: Juja
Now to start loading up on the chf crosses starting with usdchf smile
On a long enough timeline, the life expectancy of everyone drops to zero.
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mnandii
#2516 Posted : Saturday, March 29, 2014 7:55:51 AM
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Joined: 10/11/2006
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The Preferred Count. EURUSD should rise to 1.3880s level ( [ii] ) before another sell off.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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hisah
#2517 Posted : Wednesday, April 02, 2014 6:05:43 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
hisah wrote:
hisah wrote:
Short GBPJPY initiated during Asia session @169.90 with an open objective for now. I still expect this thing to test 162. Yen is growing legs as per yen futures positioning.

Still sitting in this trade tho the market spiked to 173. SL fixed at 500pips as the beast chops wildly as usual. I'll still stick to long yen in 2014...

My observations are getting hit rapidly: -

- All time highs global stocks as the party continues.
- gold has sprinted and tested $1350
- defaults have started in chingland - Chaori Solar default.

Next shows: -
- yuan-dollar rate spikes to 6.20 - 6.50. Was a spectacular one-way street trade from 7.50. A lot of corp bonds will fry properly as yuan takes it in the chin.

Shows that have delayed: -

-euroswiss peg break down @1.20.
- US 10yr note rate spike above 3%.


If chingland defaults balloon, copper price will fall off the cliff! Large vol on the sell side since 2013.


*feels like Dow 30000 in 2008 or Bear Stearns moments before the shoe fell off...

After a month the GBPJPY short has refused to comply though GBP futures suggest otherwise. USDJPY bulls defended 101 strongly helping GBPJPY to remain afloat 168. Also some order flows from jap side last week and monday will likely push USDJPY above 106 maybe to 110 before a proper selloff.

I still maintain my view, bullish yen & gold even if global equities float out of the planet! Fundies don't support the elevated equities, Fed is tapering and chingland defaults are firing. One wrong domino move and...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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kyt
#2518 Posted : Wednesday, April 02, 2014 10:38:34 AM
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Joined: 11/7/2007
Posts: 2,182
@hisah what analysis tools do you use?
LOVE WHAT YOU DO, DO WHAT YOU LOVE.
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mnandii
#2519 Posted : Thursday, April 03, 2014 8:48:05 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
The alternative Elliot Counts:

Calm Before a Storm

Steady She Goes

NB: These have also become my preferred counts. Good opportunities to enter the market should come soon.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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hisah
#2520 Posted : Thursday, April 03, 2014 12:21:06 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
kyt wrote:
@hisah what analysis tools do you use?

RSI and Ultimate Oscillator. And very important, volume spread analysis. Yes, fx has volume - futures is where the volume is displayed.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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