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Realities of Forex Investment
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mnandii
#2481 Posted : Thursday, March 20, 2014 10:23:59 AM
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Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
mnandii wrote:
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
Good timing @mnandii. You might as well hit 100pips by 8pm GMT.

smile
It was a nice one. Thanks. Am out with 90 pips. Looking for opportunity to re-enter.

Wow!I'd advice you stay out of the market today, and maybe even tomorrow as you watch the bulls try to reclaim lost ground. it will also help you protect your hard earned pipssmile

smile
Thanks for the advice. I am however trading Elliott Waves. I do enter and exit based on my wave counts. The beauty with Elliott is that you don't bother too much with fundamentals.

In the case of EURUSD, the market made a high at 1.3966 and started falling. So even before the FED statements, the waves already warned that EURUSD would fall. The statements one hears from news sources will just try to justify the fall that was already on the cards.

Trading with Elliott Waves is only painful when your count is wrong. I try as much as possible to ensure I am doing a good count.

Going forward, the 1.3966 level should be a line in the sand that should not be tested again within this year.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#2482 Posted : Thursday, March 20, 2014 11:16:16 AM
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mnandii wrote:
After the 1.3809 low, I anticipate a retest to 1.3857 (or 1.3865, the extreme of a small 4th wave) before another dash to below 1.3809.

EURUSD reversing at 1.3845 after coming close to a channel line. 1.3809 is vulnerable. I have a short position at 1.3830 aiming for 1.3790s
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#2483 Posted : Thursday, March 20, 2014 11:41:12 AM
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My working Elliott Wave count.




Sorry I didn't capture the quotes. The chart is 60 min EURUSD. The very high ( [V] ) is 1.3966.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#2484 Posted : Thursday, March 20, 2014 12:25:51 PM
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mnandii wrote:
mnandii wrote:
After the 1.3809 low, I anticipate a retest to 1.3857 (or 1.3865, the extreme of a small 4th wave) before another dash to below 1.3809.

EURUSD reversing at 1.3845 after coming close to a channel line. 1.3809 is vulnerable. I have a short position at 1.3830 aiming for 1.3790s

Am out at 1.3803. Looking for a way to get in again at short time frames.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#2485 Posted : Thursday, March 20, 2014 12:33:32 PM
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1 min chart. Trying to enter at [iv] for a small short trade.

Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#2486 Posted : Thursday, March 20, 2014 12:43:14 PM
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mnandii wrote:
1 min chart. Trying to enter at [iv] for a small short trade.



Fibonacci multiples: Wave 1= 18 pips and wave 3 =39 pips

Therefore wave 3 is approximately twice wave 1.

Why I want to enter at [iv]?
This follows the guideline of depth of corrective waves. Corrective waves, especially when they themselves are 4th waves (we are looking for wave 4 since we now have waves 1, 2 and 3), tend to find their maximum retracement at the level of a previous fourth wave of one lesser degree (in this case we should expect wave 3 to stop at wave [iv]).
(From Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behaviour By Frost and Prechter)
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#2487 Posted : Thursday, March 20, 2014 12:56:33 PM
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Hmnh. Wave 4 formed as I was posting the previous chart.


It also appears that we have completed the pattern i.e we now have waves 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 (the wave 5 is the low at 1.3792). We should now expect the largest correction within this pattern.

Also note on the Fibonacci front that wave 5 = 11 pips and our wave 1 had 18 pips. So after the extension of wave 3 (notice the subdivisions [i]-[v] ) wave 5 is now related to wave 1 by the golden ratio.
I.E. wave 5 = 0.618 X wave 1. This is called the Guideline of Equality: When wave 3 is extended expect waves 1 and 5 to be related in time and price by equality or a Fibonacci multiple.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#2488 Posted : Thursday, March 20, 2014 1:17:02 PM
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Wave 4 appears to be a running triangle. Expected low in 1.3780s
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mnandii
#2489 Posted : Thursday, March 20, 2014 1:26:31 PM
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Getting ready. we should be returning to 1.3845 soon. This 4th should either be a triangle or a flat (or combination of simpler patterns).NB This is on the larger (1 HR) TF.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#2490 Posted : Thursday, March 20, 2014 1:44:50 PM
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Notice the beautiful channel. smile

Appears 1.3745 should be the low. At that level wave [v] = wave [i] X 1.618.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#2491 Posted : Thursday, March 20, 2014 2:06:06 PM
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Wave [v] has slightly gone out of the channel. This is called a throw-over.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#2492 Posted : Thursday, March 20, 2014 5:05:31 PM
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Seems like a FLAT is forming. Flats subdivide 3-3-5. We have the first three making the wave 'A'. Wave 'B' should deep below 1.3764 (It has just done that). After wave 'B' is Wave 'C' to our target at 1.3845. Pray

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mnandii
#2493 Posted : Thursday, March 20, 2014 5:30:50 PM
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BUY Limit order at 1.3760 SL 1.3747 TP 1.3800. If this works out well it means Wave C = Wave A X 2.618. It appears 1.3845 is too far presently. Unless a different pattern (other than a FLAT) is forming. Regards.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#2494 Posted : Thursday, March 20, 2014 5:47:51 PM
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I've cancelled my earlier order. Pattern appears to be an expanding triangle.

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mnandii
#2495 Posted : Thursday, March 20, 2014 6:33:10 PM
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Waves A, B and C of the expanding triangle scenario. We wait for waves D and E. Here
Wave C = 1.618 X wave A.

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mchambuzi
#2496 Posted : Thursday, March 20, 2014 6:58:31 PM
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BUY EURUSD at 1.3775
On a long enough timeline, the life expectancy of everyone drops to zero.
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mchambuzi
#2497 Posted : Thursday, March 20, 2014 7:04:07 PM
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Buy the yen crosses. Its almost Japanese financial year end. USDJPY has always rallied tonnes of pips towards then. Just dont get caught by the whipsaws
On a long enough timeline, the life expectancy of everyone drops to zero.
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mnandii
#2498 Posted : Thursday, March 20, 2014 7:38:28 PM
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Triangle no longer valid. Sad
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mnandii
#2499 Posted : Thursday, March 20, 2014 8:11:17 PM
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mnandii wrote:
Triangle no longer valid. Sad

The FLAT scenario appears to have been correct. Short trade at 1.3785 SL 1.3791 TP Open. The channel appears quite steep at this point.
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mnandii
#2500 Posted : Friday, March 21, 2014 9:00:09 AM
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The count so far. Expect a sideways choppy movement for sometime as wave (4) consolidates.
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