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Rank: Member Joined: 1/27/2012 Posts: 851 Location: Nairobi
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murchr wrote:
Kenya's Top 20 Exports
1 Tea - $1,000,683,170.47 21%
2 Cut Flowers - $610,664,515.23 13%
3 Coffee -$287,895,784.77 5.9%
4 Refined
Petroleum - $190,222,175.65 3.9%
5 Legumes - $187,349,202.11 3.8%
6 Cement - $78,760,534.18 1.6%
7 Other
Live Plants - $77,377,519.92 1.6%
8 Other Processed
Fruits & Nuts - $74,946,678.63 1.5%
9 Non-Knit
Women's Suits - $74,910,805.00 1.5%
10 Carbonates - $74,624,949.61 1.5%
11 Rolled Tobacco - $72,445,351.00 1.5%
12 Other Processed
Vegetables - $49,882,265.59 1.0%
13 Knit Sweaters - $48,387,247.00 0.99%
14 Processed Tobacco- $47,749,489.00 0.98%
15 Knit Women's Suits-$47,258,811.00 0.97%
16 Pkgd Medicaments -$45,045,773.00 0.92%
17 Soap - $44,338,607.20 0.91%
18 Feldspar -$42,899,247.09 0.88%
19 Tanned Equine and
Bovine Hides - $41,335,521.74 0.85%
20 Fish Fillets - $40,873,177.00 0.84%
Kenya's Top 20 Imports
1 Tea - $985,608,949.83 15%
2 Wheat - $409,183,627.74 6.3%
3 Refined Petroleum -$301,156,522.74 4.6%
4 Legumes -$149,580,582.57 2.3%
5 Planes, Helicopters,
and/or Spacecraft -$128,745,483.00 2.0%
6 Palm Oil - $119,680,418.01 1.8%
7 Raw Sugar - $107,750,265.14 1.7%
8 Used Clothing - $92,620,492.43 1.4%
9 Mixed Mineral or
Chemical Fertilizers -$89,520,516.53 1.4%
10 Cement - $86,459,331.38 1.3%
11 Delivery Trucks -$78,170,231.00 1.2%
12 NonKnit Women's Suits-$74,748,356.00 1.2%
13 Pkd Medicaments -$56,813,321.00 0.88%
14 Motorcycles - $53,644,414.00 0.83%
15 Digital Disk Drives -$53,231,723.00 0.82%
16 Other Processed
Fruits and Nuts - $50,448,357.81 0.78%
17 Coated FlatRolled Iron-$49,335,822.92 0.76%
18 Knit Sweaters -$48,516,484.00 0.75%
19 Polyacetals -$47,760,622.14 0.74%
20 Knit Women's Suits -$47,447,118.00 0.73%
Just seen that Nigeria is the 6th importer of cut flowers and they get them from the Netherlands who import from Kenya wao!
Who consumes all that imported tea? The one on Nigeria importing from Holland could be the same old mentality of "trusting" the whites on quality. Poor Nigerians!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/3/2012 Posts: 1,317
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Imported tea is from DRC, Uganda, Burundi, Rwanda and TZ. All this tea is imported into Kenya and exported through Mombasa.
Kenyan tea makes up the difference about $15M.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/4/2009 Posts: 700 Location: Nairobi
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hisah wrote:Scubidu wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:the deal wrote:PKoli wrote:murchr wrote:Kenya's sovereign bond may be priced between 7.625% per annum and 8.125% per annum" Mr @H_Rotich Timetable for issuance? Very expensive bond...local 15 year bond is at 12.375%...whats the point of issuing a massive foreign currency denominated bond at 8.125%? E.g Shilling tanks 10% all of a sudden gava will be in trouble...a bond like this only makes economical sense at 6.0-6.5%... The point is that the envisioned capital goods will be imported in USD. So the question is whether to mitigate FX volatility during project life cycle by having a stash of ready USDs or borrow locally and keep sweating the USD/KES every time a "chuma" is required from abroad? Your guess is as good as mine. Also, during the tenor of the Eurobond (10yrs), exports should be up; oil, minerals, agriculture, services, FDI, Portfolio inflows etc. More clean energy to cut oil imports, local food security via the irrigation project in Galana and such likes. The bond does make sense lower but considering how long it's taken they must pay the market price with is around 475-525bps above 10yr US treasuries based on existing African Eurobonds. They'd also need the reserve buffer to fend off any speculative KES attacks but the fact is that they must maintain high domestic interests to reduce fx volatility. EA yields are still higher comparatively to emerging markets which augurs well for KES. The current a/c isn't going to improve but the perception of Kenya abroad is still positive. Read below. http://www.bloomberg.com...-selloff-to-deepen.html
Domestic debt is pretty expensive at the moment and the Eurobond is more or less an avenue to reduce refinancing risk (10yrs) and reduce domestic borrowing (local bond yields). Issuance should be within the next 40 days (launch to finish) so looking at mid April for it to be completed. We can only borrow externally when the timing is right, which seems to be between our elections (unfortunate that tapering is complicating the situation). They have a limit of $1.75bn for foreign borrowing so even in the event of an over subscription they stick to only borrowing $1.5bn. They are estimating that the next 3 year will require 100bn in infrastructure spending so the suggestion of rolling over the 2012 syndication into a 3 year tenor is also timely. Over the next few years they'll be able to explore cheaper (concessionary) funding from the IMF and China. But the fact that we are a country that has huge twin deficits means that we must grab on these opportunities when they come even if they're expensive. The potential headaches in the future will be with county government borrowing which must be guaranteed by the central government. A task force is being set up to manage potential liabilities and I can imagine the lobbying they'll face from the current crop of governors. We all know counties can't mobilize much revenue so they'll be looking to borrow locally should they be unhappy with current allocations. Do the counties have the ability to manage their liabilities when Treasury has only just managed to build their debt sustainably? At this rate will this eurobond float by mid April? Beyond April it's the national budget in focus. Why the sudden cosmetic austerity acts i.e. gok wage cuts?
http://mobile.nation.co....l/-/qomqrk/-/index.html
@hisah Not sure why they've decided to cut the wage bill but it's futile especially considering the demands from counties next financial year. I'm surprised that they say that the law doesn't allow them to issue eurobond, you'd think that's the first thing they'd have done. One thing is for sure they'll have to issue a eurobond in the next four months or pay through the nose on domestic bonds. @hisah. What do you know of Futures First? Check out the link below: http://www.futuresfirst.com/
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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Cde Monomotapa wrote:OK. Here goes.
Weekend homework;
1. Go onto the AfDB website under Kenya and read the latest.
2. Go onto the CBK website & download the MPC press release and read keenly. While there, also look at the results of the latest treasury auctions.
3. Go onto the Met. Dept website and read the long forecast.
By Monday. 20mks. For those who took time to read and interpret the above, well & good. I'll dwell on the AfDB part who have approved a concessional USD1B* (to achieve what the Eurobond is also for) to be invested in a span of 4* years (2014-2018). AfDB is also revising its credit policy for non-concessional borrowing, allowing Kenya access to sovereign-guaranteed loans from the Bank’s private-sector lending window. http://www.afdb.org/en/n...y-strategy-paper-12876/
In other quarters, it has been reported that GoK would pursue re-negotiating terms for the syndicate loan. Thus, to me, taking off immediate pressure on the Eurobond to let the legislative process take its course. Also, if I were those bankers, I'd take a long view that this is not the 1st & last Eurobond and that it'll open further business from the private sector & be accommodating. Thus, watu wajipange. The m'bus inachomoka and if you're not in jilaumu mwenyewe.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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Cde Monomotapa wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:OK. Here goes.
Weekend homework;
1. Go onto the AfDB website under Kenya and read the latest.
2. Go onto the CBK website & download the MPC press release and read keenly. While there, also look at the results of the latest treasury auctions.
3. Go onto the Met. Dept website and read the long forecast.
By Monday. 20mks. For those who took time to read and interpret the above, well & good. I'll dwell on the AfDB part who have approved a concessional USD1B* (to achieve what the Eurobond is also for) to be invested in a span of 4* years (2014-2018). AfDB is also revising its credit policy for non-concessional borrowing, allowing Kenya access to sovereign-guaranteed loans from the Bank’s private-sector lending window. http://www.afdb.org/en/n...y-strategy-paper-12876/
In other quarters, it has been reported that GoK would pursue re-negotiating terms for the syndicate loan. Thus, to me, taking off immediate pressure on the Eurobond to let the legislative process take its course. Also, if I were those bankers, I'd take a long view that this is not the 1st & last Eurobond and that it'll open further business from the private sector & be accommodating. Thus, watu wajipange. The m'bus inachomoka and if you're not in jilaumu mwenyewe.  As always Asante for demystifying issues, i guess its time to chew this info "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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@murchr The weighted average rate for 91 days Treasury bills is 8.946% Read more... http://goo.gl/ccaiTG
The weighted average rate for 182 days Treasury bills is 10.045% and for 364 days is 10.414%.Read more ... http://goo.gl/QU2qLa
Gush...
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/2/2009 Posts: 2,458 Location: Nairobi
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Cde Monomotapa wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:OK. Here goes.
Weekend homework;
1. Go onto the AfDB website under Kenya and read the latest.
2. Go onto the CBK website & download the MPC press release and read keenly. While there, also look at the results of the latest treasury auctions.
3. Go onto the Met. Dept website and read the long forecast.
By Monday. 20mks. For those who took time to read and interpret the above, well & good. I'll dwell on the AfDB part who have approved a concessional USD1B* (to achieve what the Eurobond is also for) to be invested in a span of 4* years (2014-2018). AfDB is also revising its credit policy for non-concessional borrowing, allowing Kenya access to sovereign-guaranteed loans from the Bank’s private-sector lending window. http://www.afdb.org/en/n...y-strategy-paper-12876/
In other quarters, it has been reported that GoK would pursue re-negotiating terms for the syndicate loan. Thus, to me, taking off immediate pressure on the Eurobond to let the legislative process take its course. Also, if I were those bankers, I'd take a long view that this is not the 1st & last Eurobond and that it'll open further business from the private sector & be accommodating. Thus, watu wajipange. The m'bus inachomoka and if you're not in jilaumu mwenyewe. Which M'mbus... capital or money mkt? Nielewe ni Friday and just need to confirm
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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Conventional reasoning is that when yields go down, stocks go up. So unless you had higher yielding bonds to sell for capital gain, then buy stocks.
The other way is to time it in the Real economy. As the cost of money unwinds, money supply expands. Side hustles can benefit.
Chaguo lako.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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Kenya likely to start marketing Eurobond later this month-IMF http://in.reuters.com/article/2...my-idINL6N0MA2LB20140313
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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Kenya Tops Regionally in Financial Access Points http://allafrica.com/stories/201403140437.html
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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4th consecutive month of fuel price hikes... http://www.businessdaily...76/-/2xmf1z/-/index.html$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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Pleased to see the yout' man joining up to the Capital Markets arm of Kenya Vision 2030 Must be highly encouraged! More youths investing at the NSE http://www.capitalfm.co....d&utm_medium=twitter
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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Anybody with an idea where I can get data of the NSE 20 share index since its inception to date? Price for the data? I'd like to do an Elliott Wave Analysis of the same. Thanks n regards. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Cde Monomotapa wrote:@murchr The weighted average rate for 91 days Treasury bills is 8.946% Read more... http://goo.gl/ccaiTG
The weighted average rate for 182 days Treasury bills is 10.045% and for 364 days is 10.414%.Read more ... http://goo.gl/QU2qLa
Gush... 91day rates are dropped again in the last auction, but this time the offer was undersubscribed i.e. subscription rate of 34.95%
http://tinyurl.com/oqfol3b
I don't see treasury fighting off the bankers on the tbill rates yet.
And why the heck did CBK remove the yield curve chart. It's been absent since that KES smackdown back in 2011. Wanaficha nini. Bure kabisa.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Ghana puts planned US$1bn Eurobond on holdTz is also on the handbrake on their eurobond. Angola has been listing theirs since 2009... Is KE going this way? Ghana has already seen the global market mood is not worth fighting with as well as Poland. @scubidu - I'm not aware of www.futuresfirst.com. But looks interesting. As for the eurobond float the back and forth by gok doesn't show any confidence and I expect the domestic bond market to squeeze them properly. The longer they wait the higher the USD rate will get as Fed bank keep the taper pressure on draining off liquidity. Paying a eurobond rate above 8% will be a senseless move. If or when the market senses gok is out of options by budget time, KES will be squeezed at some point and that will shave NSE as domestic bonds hog liquidity. - inflation is ticking up post VAT (senseless move together with that excise tax on mobi money) - food security, not as tense as 2011 - industrials fin results are looking bad. 2014 will be tougher if liquidity is hogged. - if industrials are tapped out how will the banks post rosy results in 2014? How will they deal with the bulging NPLs? - how will KES maintain strength when the econ starts squeaking loudly. I'm waiting to see how long this pretext show will last as I see NSE has outpriced the econ should things unravel as per above observations. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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Tourism revenue down 7.5% 2013 clearly was not a good year "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Now this debt debate is becoming boring - http://www.businessdaily...32/-/68mp65/-/index.html$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Member Joined: 7/6/2010 Posts: 242
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It is a reality we cannot escape from and the Treasury has to be reminded. The debt level is now over 50% of the GDP , add the 13& wage bill and what does the government remain with? The economic meltdown in Greece and still fresh on Our minds , can You imagine if a similar situation occurred in Kenya ?
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/30/2013 Posts: 659
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[quote=hisah]Now this debt debate is becoming boring - http://www.businessdaily...2/-/68mp65/-/index.html[/quote] How will this impact on the sovereign bond? If you stay ready, no need to get ready.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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Pedes wrote:How will this impact on the sovereign bond? Poor BD reporting!!! IMF & World Bank have maintained Kenya Debt is sustainable and supported the Eurobond issue. Read the actual report for self ---> http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2014/cr1474.pdf
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