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CFC Stanbic FY 2013 PAT up a whopping 70%
Metasploit
#41 Posted : Wednesday, March 12, 2014 11:00:30 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 985
Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
Aguytrying wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
vastcapital wrote:
130 here we come! then Q1 results will be even better I can only imagine the new heights...

Cheers @vastcapital. On this Mbus all the way to the heights #200# Drool #MakingMoney2014


if they can sweat their assests like they did last year to grow. no reason the price shouldn't follow. enjoying ride from 60's

@metaspoilt. I can't believe you are risking all that cash on demand vs supply momentum trading. this method may work in a bull market but no guarantee it Will work in a bear or flat market.


Aguy when there is an obvious trend reversal,i will either take a break or do a spread in the undervalued stocks and laggards.

Bear markets have a different play and it has its own players.

“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
uchumi
#42 Posted : Wednesday, March 12, 2014 11:05:13 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/16/2006
Posts: 234
well managed company.the quarter one results will open the way to 200.remember the total assets rose to over 180b and being the banker of south sudan goverment expect exellent results.
“I don’t regret the things I’ve done, I regret the things I didn’t do when I had the chance.”
sparkly
#43 Posted : Wednesday, March 12, 2014 11:22:36 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
the deal wrote:
Great to see CFC have a legion of fans...this stock was once the most hated...it used to be a lonely bus below 40's...its great to see people buying at 115...


Best performing back in the next 2-3 years. Done with post-merger blues.
Life is short. Live passionately.
sparkly
#44 Posted : Wednesday, March 12, 2014 11:26:21 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
uchumi wrote:
well managed company.the quarter one results will open the way to 200.remember the total assets rose to over 180b and being the banker of south sudan goverment expect exellent results.


Your basis for predicting 200? Not that i mind 200.
Life is short. Live passionately.
dunkang
#45 Posted : Thursday, March 13, 2014 5:46:41 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/2/2011
Posts: 4,824
Location: -1.2107, 36.8831
uchumi wrote:
well managed company.the quarter one results will open the way to 200.remember the total assets rose to over 180b and being the banker of south sudan goverment expect exellent results.

Just the same way Equity Bank was to Nairobi County Council or just the same way E.A Cables supplied wires to a TZ parastatal.

C.F.C been the official banker for South Sudan is not a guarantee to riches, most of this African governments are ROGUE, They sumbua you till you give up. Just ask Equity Bank or E.A Cables.
Receive with simplicity everything that happens to you.” ― Rashi

hisah
#46 Posted : Thursday, March 13, 2014 8:43:23 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
the deal wrote:
Great to see CFC have a legion of fans...this stock was once the most hated...it used to be a lonely bus below 40's...its great to see people buying at 115...

That 38 - 44 zone was indeed very lonely. Now that the crowd is onboard, I can sell at will smile
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
georgegop
#47 Posted : Thursday, March 13, 2014 1:08:44 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 8/30/2010
Posts: 183
Location: Migingo
THIS THING IS A HOLD!!!

Earnings and TP upgrade, maintain HOLD
CfC Stanbic Bank’s FY13A net profit growth of 59% y/y to Ksh4.96bn, which is only 1% below our previous FY14E numbers, prompts us to upgrade our numbers. Compared to our FY13E forecasts, we were in line with most items except two: FX trading income, which was +13% ahead of our forecast while the cost-to-income ratio was 50.2% vs. 53.5% which we expected.
Earnings benefit from a 10 point y/y drop in CIR: Moving from a cost-to-income ratio of c.65% as recently as FY11, CFC’s FY13A CIR of 50% is a marked improvement and informs our FY14E and FY15E forecast changes. While the decline in costs was mainly due to non-recurring project costs, we are not entirely convinced that the current CIR of 50.2% (FY13A) should be the normalised level going forward. We factor in a 53% FY14E (previously 59%) CIR and flag that management’s medium-term target is a 50% CIR, which would imply 5.5% and 7.4% upside to our FY14E EPS and TP respectively.
Improved risk-adjusted profitability: Our analysis reveals that on a yearly basis, CFC has managed to grow its risk-adjusted profitability by c.1.7x in the past three years compared to c.1.5x at DTB and declining multiples for the other banks (Figure 3). At 6.9% PBT/RWA, CFC’s profitability is not the highest, but commands the largest delta over the period. We argue that there is still room for additional growth given the bank’s 72% loan-to-deposit ratio compared to 75%-91% for the other banks, and core capital to RWA of 17.7% provides sufficient buffer for medium-term growth
17% upgrade to FY14E numbers: The main forecast change is a 6 point cut in CIR to 53% for FY14E, informed by the 10 point y/y decline in CIR in FY13A. Secondly, we rebalance our non-funded income contribution to total income from 49% to 51% for FY14E; FY13A FX trading income was +13% ahead of our numbers driven by increased trading volumes from South Sudan with 35% of FX total income booked in Q4:13. To highlight the volatility of trading income, a 10% cut to our FY14E trading income forecast would lead to a 6% decline in EPS and 4% cut to our TP.
New TP Ksh119, maintain HOLD: The share price has run going into the FY13A results and in our view, much of the upside has been priced in. We maintain our HOLD rating but with a new TP of Ksh119 (previously Ksh94). The counter trades on a FY14E P/E 6.8x of and P/B of 1.4x.
Don't Work for Money, Let Money Work for You..
sparkly
#48 Posted : Thursday, March 13, 2014 8:22:41 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
hisah wrote:
the deal wrote:
Great to see CFC have a legion of fans...this stock was once the most hated...it used to be a lonely bus below 40's...its great to see people buying at 115...

That 38 - 44 zone was indeed very lonely. Now that the crowd is onboard, I can sell at will smile


Who is the new driver of this bus ...@mwekez@ji, @vastcapital? remind us to hold tight.
Life is short. Live passionately.
mwekez@ji
#49 Posted : Thursday, March 13, 2014 8:33:54 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
sparkly wrote:
hisah wrote:
the deal wrote:
Great to see CFC have a legion of fans...this stock was once the most hated...it used to be a lonely bus below 40's...its great to see people buying at 115...

That 38 - 44 zone was indeed very lonely. Now that the crowd is onboard, I can sell at will smile


Who is the new driver of this bus ...@mwekez@ji, @vastcapital? remind us to hold tight.


I believe @the deal hasn't left the driving seat. @hisah sounds like a tired passenger. Someone should fill his seat
Metasploit
#50 Posted : Friday, March 14, 2014 5:18:20 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 985
Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
mwekez@ji wrote:
sparkly wrote:
hisah wrote:
the deal wrote:
Great to see CFC have a legion of fans...this stock was once the most hated...it used to be a lonely bus below 40's...its great to see people buying at 115...

That 38 - 44 zone was indeed very lonely. Now that the crowd is onboard, I can sell at will smile


Who is the new driver of this bus ...@mwekez@ji, @vastcapital? remind us to hold tight.


I believe @the deal hasn't left the driving seat. @hisah sounds like a tired passenger. Someone should fill his seat


110 has indeed been a tough resistance.
I sold all my CFC shares at 110 today and am now 90% liquid save for a small lot of kenya Re.

Demand has been sucked up by supply at the 110-115 levels.I thought the 300,000 volume at 115 on Wednesday will clear up supply!!!But this one is like watering a desert (for now)and demand has already showed signs of exhaustion.

Consider today;volume spike but no effect on price change..NB there was no block trade

We have never had any strong support at 104-108.

The path of least resistance remains down.

Also noted the heavy volumes across most counters.Next week will be interesting (As always we will have very few posts in wazua)

“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
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