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National Bank - Rights Issue
Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 985 Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
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mlennyma wrote:if you didn't get out wait for the sword.its very sharp.investors don't want to hear the word rights of huge amounts and I feel nervous the market is showing bear signs everyday.we might never know when the mother bear reaches. You right
“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 6/23/2011 Posts: 1,740 Location: Nairobi
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Rights or no rights I would be more worried about the management skils that the bank has to provide the confidence that is needed to gurantee growth...if this is lacking then the share price could as well go to 3.00 as once was once upon a time.
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/14/2011 Posts: 834 Location: nairobi
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hisah wrote:mkeiy wrote:hisah wrote:Another huge rights issue... This has put a dumper on this laggard and I'm forced to strike it out from the laggards bus until the rights issue becomes clear. KQ rights mess was as messy as it can get.
Possible for it to break below the 30/- handle as the rights is digested even with super results! @hisah, With Msc getting one year extension and Nbk calling for rights,only Kk and Kq remain on the laggards list. The list now has KPLC, KQ and KK. I'm now scoping TPSE and TCL. I've got an eye too on KEGN if the price breaks below 10 and lower.
For 2014 I've picked WTK and NMG and still hold KQ (Q4 2013) and a small SCOM lot and CFC (the only long term play). I'm playing purely defensive until the eurobond issue becomes clear.
Hisah what is your take on kenya Re? I thought it would not been going down as it was much under valued?
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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heri wrote:hisah wrote:mkeiy wrote:hisah wrote:Another huge rights issue... This has put a dumper on this laggard and I'm forced to strike it out from the laggards bus until the rights issue becomes clear. KQ rights mess was as messy as it can get.
Possible for it to break below the 30/- handle as the rights is digested even with super results! @hisah, With Msc getting one year extension and Nbk calling for rights,only Kk and Kq remain on the laggards list. The list now has KPLC, KQ and KK. I'm now scoping TPSE and TCL. I've got an eye too on KEGN if the price breaks below 10 and lower.
For 2014 I've picked WTK and NMG and still hold KQ (Q4 2013) and a small SCOM lot and CFC (the only long term play). I'm playing purely defensive until the eurobond issue becomes clear.
Hisah what is your take on kenya Re? I thought it would not been going down as it was much under valued? KNRE is still undervalued compared to the likes of PAFR and CIC. I expect it to fair well despite the market mood. My concern with insurance is the weak consumer buying power shown by EABL and Uchumi H1 results. This means selling insurance this yr will be a tough call. Also most insurance firm get extra income from NSE which is hinting at a sell side yr. Those income streams will be crimped and will reflect on their books. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/7/2012 Posts: 11,908
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hisah wrote:heri wrote:hisah wrote:mkeiy wrote:hisah wrote:Another huge rights issue... This has put a dumper on this laggard and I'm forced to strike it out from the laggards bus until the rights issue becomes clear. KQ rights mess was as messy as it can get.
Possible for it to break below the 30/- handle as the rights is digested even with super results! @hisah, With Msc getting one year extension and Nbk calling for rights,only Kk and Kq remain on the laggards list. The list now has KPLC, KQ and KK. I'm now scoping TPSE and TCL. I've got an eye too on KEGN if the price breaks below 10 and lower.
For 2014 I've picked WTK and NMG and still hold KQ (Q4 2013) and a small SCOM lot and CFC (the only long term play). I'm playing purely defensive until the eurobond issue becomes clear.
Hisah what is your take on kenya Re? I thought it would not been going down as it was much under valued? KNRE is still undervalued compared to the likes of PAFR and CIC. I expect it to fair well despite the market mood. My concern with insurance is the weak consumer buying power shown by EABL and Uchumi H1 results. This means selling insurance this yr will be a tough call. Also most insurance firm get extra income from NSE which is hinting at a sell side yr. Those income streams will be crimped and will reflect on their books. thanks @hisah very insightful the comments over the past week, thanks man! In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 10/10/2010 Posts: 51 Location: Nairobi
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The requirement by the regulator on independent directors should minimize the influence of the big boys on the board...NSSF notwithstanding even with the conversion of their preferred shares, which is actually good news for the common stock holder.
My view on this stock is that its a good one to watch. if you consider that the bank has: overhauled its top management,Rebranded
Upgraded almost all systems-New core banking,Card system,Treasury system,Trade and currently working to overhaul its mobile banking platform.
Also currently on a downsizing program.
New investment in branches with an exotic touch, plans to increase branch network in strategic points.
Has recently invested in Islamic banking which seems to be growing its loan book
Poached guys from the big boys in the industry and have developed a modern structured bank with a serious Corporate, Retail and Treasury arms.
All this is indicative of the direction the bank wishes to take the difference is whether they hit the upward trend. I believe if management works to achieve this, then value for shareholders is guaranteed.
Keep watching!!! you might just find the right time for entry
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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@Hisah. Karibu sana TPS EA, its a non topic nowdays... That bad. its day is coming soon ive seen signs of share price recovery. For Kengen, im also, it think the discount wont last long. might kick upwards before rights announced. everyday i see it at 11.00 its calling me. I find it hard to resist undervalued counters! @vastcapital. RIGHT on. Let the rights/preference shares come in and dilute the share to the lowest low imaginable. Then we can buy this trasforming company. it will be a favour to get a recovering company at a hyperdiluted and possibly not far above NAV. So. dilution and rights do your thing. we'll come in later when people are crying. Cde of course wont cry The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,551 Location: nairobi
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Personally I know of no one who holds a NBK account. Thats part reason as to why I cant invest. To me NBK is like Yu!
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,121 Location: Nairobi
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obiero wrote:Personally I know of no one who holds a NBK account. Thats part reason as to why I cant invest. To me NBK is like Yu!  Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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obiero wrote:Personally I know of no one who holds a NBK account. Thats part reason as to why I cant invest. To me NBK is like Yu! Most parastatals have accounts with NBK. Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,121 Location: Nairobi
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sparkly wrote:obiero wrote:Personally I know of no one who holds a NBK account. Thats part reason as to why I cant invest. To me NBK is like Yu! Most parastatals have accounts with NBK. Parastatals are dying out post-liberalization. In addition, the devolution will take away from GoK accounts to a county level where Equity is strong. Thankfully, the private sector is growing faster than parastatals. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,551 Location: nairobi
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fools rush in
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Elder Joined: 4/22/2010 Posts: 11,522 Location: Nairobi
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The last person who I personally knew to have an account with them vowed never to step into that bank,we discussed this I believe in the Market section,this is one bank with poor customer care something they should have sorted out way back... possunt quia posse videntur
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 10/10/2010 Posts: 51 Location: Nairobi
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maka wrote:The last person who I personally knew to have an account with them vowed never to step into that bank,we discussed this I believe in the Market section,this is one bank with poor customer care something they should have sorted out way back... National Bank wins Global re-branding award! http://www.rebrand.com/d...n-national-bank-of-kenya
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/10/2007 Posts: 1,587
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vastcapital wrote:The last person who I personally knew to have an account with them vowed never to step into that bank,we discussed this I believe in the Market section,this is one bank with poor customer care something they should have sorted out way back... National Bank wins Global re-branding award! http://www.rebrand.com/d...-national-bank-of-kenya[/quote] Last time I saw a company seriously do marketing /rebranding was CIC. I think NBK has a bright future
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 10/10/2010 Posts: 51 Location: Nairobi
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Metasploit wrote:mlennyma wrote:if you didn't get out wait for the sword.its very sharp.investors don't want to hear the word rights of huge amounts and I feel nervous the market is showing bear signs everyday.we might never know when the mother bear reaches. You right The market is indeed bearish by the day, but look at it this way. NBK stock has shot up in the last four months. Just after the release of their Q3 results which indicated a growth of upwards 130% by this time news of a rights issue by H1 of 2014 was already on the streets. The impressive run therefore was an excitement of the good results but clearly short-lived given the impending rights. The fact that the market is bearish with most counters being overbought means that if the rights price is favorably discounted and with their intensive investment in change...the massive liquidity might find its way to this laggard. Don't dismiss this counter instead watch it keenly. i believe the right entry is coming.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,551 Location: nairobi
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vastcapital wrote:Metasploit wrote:mlennyma wrote:if you didn't get out wait for the sword.its very sharp.investors don't want to hear the word rights of huge amounts and I feel nervous the market is showing bear signs everyday.we might never know when the mother bear reaches. You right The market is indeed bearish by the day, but look at it this way. NBK stock has shot up in the last four months. Just after the release of their Q3 results which indicated a growth of upwards 130% by this time news of a rights issue by H1 of 2014 was already on the streets. The impressive run therefore was an excitement of the good results but clearly short-lived given the impending rights. The fact that the market is bearish with most counters being overbought means that if the rights price is favorably discounted and with their intensive investment in change...the massive liquidity might find its way to this laggard. Don't dismiss this counter instead watch it keenly. i believe the right entry is coming. Remind me please, are we buyin into the stock or the business? In my view, the business even if improving, pales in comparison to its peers. it will take some time for nbk to resemble a real bank
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 10/10/2010 Posts: 51 Location: Nairobi
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obiero wrote:vastcapital wrote:Metasploit wrote:mlennyma wrote:if you didn't get out wait for the sword.its very sharp.investors don't want to hear the word rights of huge amounts and I feel nervous the market is showing bear signs everyday.we might never know when the mother bear reaches. You right The market is indeed bearish by the day, but look at it this way. NBK stock has shot up in the last four months. Just after the release of their Q3 results which indicated a growth of upwards 130% by this time news of a rights issue by H1 of 2014 was already on the streets. The impressive run therefore was an excitement of the good results but clearly short-lived given the impending rights. The fact that the market is bearish with most counters being overbought means that if the rights price is favorably discounted and with their intensive investment in change...the massive liquidity might find its way to this laggard. Don't dismiss this counter instead watch it keenly. i believe the right entry is coming. Remind me please, are we buyin into the stock or the business? In my view, the business even if improving, pales in comparison to its peers. it will take some time for nbk to resemble a real bank I seek your indulgence @obiero. The reasons most would be investors buy into a stock is because they seek a better book value which is simply the net assets i.e balance sheet growth. The peers are indeed in a different class, but NBK has a better growth curve if only they make good choices.(Business life cycle dynamics). Yes we are buying into a business...the stock is just a means 
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,121 Location: Nairobi
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PKoli wrote:vastcapital wrote:The last person who I personally knew to have an account with them vowed never to step into that bank,we discussed this I believe in the Market section,this is one bank with poor customer care something they should have sorted out way back... National Bank wins Global re-branding award! http://www.rebrand.com/d...-national-bank-of-kenya[/quote] Last time I saw a company seriously do marketing /rebranding was CIC. I think NBK has a bright future Coz it rebranded? There's more to re-branding. It has to change attitudes, customer service, innovation, etc ... not just logos and colors. Old wine in new bags does no good. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/10/2007 Posts: 1,587
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VituVingiSana wrote:PKoli wrote:vastcapital wrote:The last person who I personally knew to have an account with them vowed never to step into that bank,we discussed this I believe in the Market section,this is one bank with poor customer care something they should have sorted out way back... National Bank wins Global re-branding award! http://www.rebrand.com/d...-national-bank-of-kenya[/quote] Last time I saw a company seriously do marketing /rebranding was CIC. I think NBK has a bright future Coz it rebranded? There's more to re-branding. It has to change attitudes, customer service, innovation, etc ... not just logos and colors. Old wine in new bags does no good. @VVS Agreed, but NBK is doing more than rebranding from management changes at the top to service. I think they are on the right track.
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