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Standard gauge railway ground breaking set for this week
Siringi
#81 Posted : Thursday, February 20, 2014 8:46:46 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/8/2013
Posts: 2,517
Parliamentary Committee Declares SGR safi kama Pamba, Key Otoyo witness Keter failed to present evidence smile
"😖😡KQ makes money for everyone except the shareholder 😏😏 " overheard in Wazua
mv_ufanisi
#82 Posted : Thursday, February 20, 2014 9:18:08 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/15/2010
Posts: 625
Ndii's article had me wondering if this is really the best use of Kshs 300 billion to build a railway from Mombasa to Nairobi.
There's some interesting alternatives -
1. We could have built this railway from Lamu to Nanyuki which opens up a part of the country that has been neglected for so long.
2. We could revamp the RVR railway and build a dual carriage way road to Mombasa - that should help reduce the no of accidents & make it faster to drive to Mombasa.
It starts to seem that this railway wasn't well thought out at least from a strategic viewpoint. Or am I wrong?
a4architect.com
#83 Posted : Thursday, February 20, 2014 9:39:32 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 1/4/2010
Posts: 1,668
Location: nairobi
the railway project makes economic sense. The only issue i have is with the higher than average cost and lack of proper explanation by Govt as to why the costs are this high.

http://www.a4architect.c...hipoia-vs-nigeria-costs/
As Iron Sharpens Iron, So one Man Sharpens Another.
wanyee
#84 Posted : Thursday, February 20, 2014 9:40:31 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 7/17/2011
Posts: 627
Location: Mbui-Nzau, Kikumbulyu
mv_ufanisi wrote:
Ndii's article had me wondering if this is really the best use of Kshs 300 billion to build a railway from Mombasa to Nairobi.
There's some interesting alternatives -
1. We could have built this railway from Lamu to Nanyuki which opens up a part of the country that has been neglected for so long.
2. We could revamp the RVR railway and build a dual carriage way road to Mombasa - that should help reduce the no of accidents & make it faster to drive to Mombasa.
It starts to seem that this railway wasn't well thought out at least from a strategic viewpoint. Or am I wrong?

Yes all the above if the financing was from our own coffers!!!
mv_ufanisi
#85 Posted : Thursday, February 20, 2014 10:07:27 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/15/2010
Posts: 625
The financing will eventually come from our own coffers.

I think there needs to be a justification for why we should have two railways in the same place competing against each other when a huge part of the country lacks any kind of infrastructure.

It's just seems like a misplacement of priorities.

The president seems to believe that this will be the defining project of his presidency and will push it forward regardless. RVR needed a kick in the behind but this project might be a waste of precious little resources.
shalishali
#86 Posted : Thursday, February 20, 2014 12:27:51 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 12/15/2009
Posts: 142
Location: Nairobi
mv_ufanisi wrote:
The financing will eventually come from our own coffers.

I think there needs to be a justification for why we should have two railways in the same place competing against each other when a huge part of the country lacks any kind of infrastructure.

It's just seems like a misplacement of priorities.

The president seems to believe that this will be the defining project of his presidency and will push it forward regardless. RVR needed a kick in the behind but this project might be a waste of precious little resources.

Wondering whther anybody has the google map of the standard gauge alignment/route.
UKITAFUTA UKABILA UTAKUFA BILA!
a4architect.com
#87 Posted : Thursday, February 20, 2014 6:33:28 PM
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Joined: 1/4/2010
Posts: 1,668
Location: nairobi
check a dual track rail here below.

http://www.a4architect.c...chnical-details-needed/

This is when the current 1m wide rail is added another track to make it 1.4m wide hence reduce the cost of construction significantly.

Such options should have been studied during the feasibility study phase.

I shuddered when Hon. Kimunya recently said that there was no need to carry out a Kenyan owned feasibility so he let the chinese do their own feasibility. This could be the genesis of the problems we are seeing since the chinese must have done a feasibility study that best meets their needs .
As Iron Sharpens Iron, So one Man Sharpens Another.
tomtom
#88 Posted : Friday, February 21, 2014 1:22:01 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 11/19/2013
Posts: 33
It seems a dual gauge has worked for others before what would be the implications of going the upgrade route given the following considerations.

a)that the current rail service is already concessioned.

b)would current service be halted, what are the legal implications and penalties to the concession holder

c)the cabinet secretary claimed that the current railway never envisioned high speed trains (120kmh) hence has gradient and bends that would be risky at such speeds.

d)if it is true that high speed rail has to be fenced, how will this pan out in national parks and towns the rail currently passes.

e)if you have several low speed trains on the dual gauge rail how will it impact the high speed trains using the same track.

f)how cost effective is it to panel beat an 19th century rail into a 21st century outfit without compromising efficiency.


a4architect.com
#89 Posted : Friday, February 21, 2014 12:09:01 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 1/4/2010
Posts: 1,668
Location: nairobi
@tomtom, good questions. Now such questions and answers are what a proper feasibility study shows. Now that we have not publicly seen any feasibility study, we are left to imagine and debate, such as the recent Dvid Ndii's article but the best situation is for Govt to pay Kenyan consultants for a factual feasibility study that has incorporated all the above issues.

For Govt to have asked the Chinese contractors to carry out a feasibility, this is ridiculous since they can only do a feasibility that is skewed to their advantage.
As Iron Sharpens Iron, So one Man Sharpens Another.
sorovi
#90 Posted : Friday, February 21, 2014 2:49:31 PM
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Joined: 8/3/2007
Posts: 146
murchr
#91 Posted : Sunday, February 23, 2014 5:38:06 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
www.youtube.com/watch?v=RHioUHx16aw

Admin why have you disabled the ability to post youtube and twitter links?

Anyway watch the link above and see our issues with valuations are nothing new. Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly

If you enjoy watching documentaries here is Japan's high speed rail https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nPLx9j-bBHo
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
jmbada
#92 Posted : Monday, February 24, 2014 5:39:51 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/1/2011
Posts: 396
a4architect.com wrote:
@tomtom, good questions. Now such questions and answers are what a proper feasibility study shows. Now that we have not publicly seen any feasibility study, we are left to imagine and debate, such as the recent Dvid Ndii's article but the best situation is for Govt to pay Kenyan consultants for a factual feasibility study that has incorporated all the above issues.

For Govt to have asked the Chinese contractors to carry out a feasibility, this is ridiculous since they can only do a feasibility that is skewed to their advantage.

I've said previously...any Kenyan consultants are welcome to do the feasibility study at the same cost as the Chinese contractors'....i.e. free. In addition, most of the ultimate bidders could have conducted the same study at the same free cost prior to completion of the tendering process, but they chose not to. Ultimately, the feasibility study will HAVE to be published once the contract is signed as this now becomes govt. property, and hence property of the people of Kenya.
a4architect.com
#93 Posted : Monday, February 24, 2014 12:34:03 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 1/4/2010
Posts: 1,668
Location: nairobi
@jmbada, feasibility studies cost money. For any Kenyan to use their resources to carry out a feasibility study for a public project is not proper since there are public procurement rules and regulations to be followed.

The free Chinese feasibility study contravenes public procurement and disposal act and once anyone challenges this in court, am sure the judges will rule to their favour.


This 'free' feasibility study is what could be resulting in such huge costs compared to the same railways done in South Africa,Nigeria,Ghana and Ethiopia.

http://www.a4architect.c...ipoia-vs-nigeria-costs/


The feasibility study should be made public before the contract is signed so that if the study shows a need to alter the design, this will affect the contract sum hencce must be published before the contract signing.

These are basics as stipulated in the public procurement laws of Kenya and i was surprised that Hon. Kimunya could actually advise the Govt. to use the Chinese feasibility instead of having a Kenyan feasibility for comparison purposes. The kes 1 billion he thought was saved, has resulted in kes kes 300 billion SGR cost and could also cost Uhuruto their presidency . I personally would not vote in Uhuruto for a second term if such basics are not streamlined and understood by technocrats working under him/them.

It would be gross misconduct for Govt to play around with 1/3rd of kenyas 1 trillion economy worth of a single project by letting it continue without independent feasibility studies. We will simply bankrupt the economy and excess poverty will eat us up as a nation.
As Iron Sharpens Iron, So one Man Sharpens Another.
tomtom
#94 Posted : Tuesday, February 25, 2014 3:16:50 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 11/19/2013
Posts: 33
@a4 I agree with you that an Independent feasibility study is the best way to go. But I cant help but think (given the nature of the politics of the day)that it would not achieve it intended purpose of better value for money. It seems to me politically the dispute seems to be who 'ate'.

Indeed David Ndii alluded to the fact that the the costs may not be grossly inflated but the process was flawed.

It is for this reason that I would also agree with @jmbada, that others interested in the project, conduct studies at their expense. So as to weed out those who are not absolutely convinced, that they will save the tax payer considerable sums of money. Indeed the figures mentioned (Ksh1B) may just be another avenue for more 'eating' without adding real value.

We could have a scenario where, a repeat of procurement could result in very insignificant saving, or even an increase in the cost but with less noise, once previously excluded parties are accommodated.

I have seen the comparisons you make on your website and I think you are doing a good job of raising valuation issues, and I think the country should explore all possible ways of getting the railway done in the shortest time possible in the most cost effective way (within reason).

I do believe the country stands to benefit greatly as the opportunities are immense. I have a great deal of respect for David Ndii however I do hold a different view to that of Ndii when he says the project may not be pro poor enough, but that is a story for another day.

Such projects tend to cost more not less when delayed. And on a completely different matter the euro bond is likely to cost more as opposed to the period before the taper when Rwanda issued theirs. Point is timing matters

On a light note this could just be the project to get people to vote on issues not ethnicity if it costs uhuruto their jobs.
a4architect.com
#95 Posted : Tuesday, February 25, 2014 9:09:18 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 1/4/2010
Posts: 1,668
Location: nairobi
@tomtom, well said.
The best way is simply for Govt to sit down and ask themselves the Pertinent question. What is the right/legal way to put up the SGR?
Its simple.
1. conduct an impartial feasibility study done by independent consultants.
Asking the chinese contractors do do the feasibility study is similar to asking a contractor to build you a house without you having to employ your independent architect/qs/engineer.The contractor will then cost and specify the house according to his own advantage which is why such situations are separated.

2. Get quotations from suppliers.

3. Award the contract.

From my studies here
http://www.a4architect.c...ipoia-vs-nigeria-costs/

clearly, the sgr project costs are the highest in Africa. This by itself is not a problem if we are told why. Maybe the rail is made of more superior metal, maybe the design has less accidents etc, all these maybes should be proven in the document known as a feasibility study .

Even President Museveni asked doctors to do a study on whether gayism is genetic or a learned behaviour before signing the anti gay law.

http://www.taipeitimes.c...s/2014/02/23/2003584178

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-26297356

Kenya should learn to believe in its own professionals and their ability to do research that in turn advices policy. There are thousands of Kenyan engineers and quantity surveyors with capacity to advice the Govt on such issues. A Qs friend of mine is currently working on the SGR project in Ghana.
As Iron Sharpens Iron, So one Man Sharpens Another.
tomtom
#96 Posted : Tuesday, February 25, 2014 3:29:34 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 11/19/2013
Posts: 33
@a4 I could not agree with you more.

There is need for people like you to be in decision making positions in govt. maybe you should consider this or encourage your like minded friends to join govt in positions that matter.

the reason I say this is because as it stands now, govt. is convinced that they are on the right path. the principle sec. the cabinet sec. even the president seem completely smitten with SGR.

Much like a man who is intent on marrying the love of his life, but his friends and family have misgivings. It may be an exercise in futility to expect him engage the services of a P.I. at his cost. It might be more fruitful if friends and family spared sometime and/or money to gather evidence and present it to him and hope he makes the right choice.

Govt. seems to be in this position they don't see what they have done wrong or about to do wrong. It is for friends (other companies or even governments) and family (local professionals and citizens at large)to help gather that evidence (feasibility study). Present it and hope the right choices are made.

Let me hasten to add that asking other Chinese contractors to do a study is not ideal but as you said this things cost money. Govt is reluctant to act. This brings me to my next suggestion. Would you consider taking this issue on as a patriotic citizen.

I humbly request you hear me out for a sec. How about some serious civic duty (not Kimunya style rage). Suppose someone were to rally local professionals to volunteer their services for love of country.

As you eloquently pointed out it is high time Kenya believed more in its own professionals. It spends huge resources training them only to engage others in significant projects.

Maybe it is time also, that the professionals demanded better recognition from their country. Picketing could be one option, though we all know how most of those end. I would humbly suggest a different approach.

What is the probability that local professionals could chip in, in their areas of expertise. Indeed as you have said you already have a friend who is working on a similar project in Ghana. How feasible(no pun) is this approach, where the country's enlightened would shine their light for the benefit their motherland(and wanjiku).

Should we accept and move on, or is there hope. @a4 would you be interested in mobilising fellow professionals to provide an alternative to the govt. single minded (single sourced) approach. Is the mantra of home grown solutions to home grown problems only applicable to the icc.

That said and done. I believe as many do we need the SGR, how it has been approached, looks 'shifty'. If there is a speedy way of resolving the questions, by all means it should be done.

My bet is that, resolution won't come from govt. For as long as those with better ideas are the minority or in non influential positions, I think it is best to 'kaza mshipi na kusonga mbele'. We look to our best minds (well meaning professionals) to take the lead. These plots are hatched by pretty intelligent people (local professionals). That is why mwananchi's only hope is that, their sons and daughters whom they sent to school to do the right thing.
a4architect.com
#97 Posted : Tuesday, February 25, 2014 5:34:50 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 1/4/2010
Posts: 1,668
Location: nairobi
@tomtom, true. Unfortunately, its the role of President Uhuru to appoint able advisors aka cabinet secretaries, who can balance both politics and technical content. If he does not get best advice, he risks losing an election etc.Pres. Kibaki still got negative publicity during the 2007 elections even though he moved the economy from 0% to 7% growth in 5 years. So, the balance between the technical content vs politics is quite crucial. Right now,Pres. Uhuru has high political rankings and he will have to learn to balance this by improving the technical advisory team.

For Kenyan professionals to undertake the SGR feasibility study pro bono , the law has to be changed to enable this. currently, the procurement law does not envisage such pro bono service. Its also not fair for a few tax paying kenyan professionals to overburden themselves with the huge multi million feasibility study bill while the treasury is awash with money.
Bottom line is that the kenyan tax payer needs to see his money utilised well, by paying for feasibility studies so as to proove to the same tax payer beyond reasonable doubt that the SGR project will have to cost kes 300b or less.

I would say with an AG as able as Githu Muigai, the president is in safe hands. Githu foresaw the Konza city disaster.

http://www.businessdaily...6/-/8v2dgo/-/index.html

Githu has also foreseen the SGR problem.

http://www.standardmedia...ovt-against-rail-tender

At the Judiciary, Mutunga foresaw Gladys Shollei's alleged mismanagement .

http://www.capitalfm.co....ve-shollei-from-office/

This shows that some of the highest Presidential advisory offices are on the right track and if such people are constantly listened to, some of us who prefer to watch things from the background will be spared the agony of entering into public service to sort he mess out.
As Iron Sharpens Iron, So one Man Sharpens Another.
limanika
#98 Posted : Tuesday, March 04, 2014 6:01:00 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/21/2011
Posts: 2,032
Those seasoned in construction industry know of one fact - Never ever be at the mercy of the contractor. He would mess you 99.999% of the time.
Seriously, this contractor should be given back all what he has given out under the table / spent even if it is 100B - then we go for competitive feasibility study & bidding. We will save much more by doing that.
a4architect.com
#99 Posted : Tuesday, March 04, 2014 10:28:14 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 1/4/2010
Posts: 1,668
Location: nairobi
@limanika..true. Its like giving an open cheque to the contractor to fill in his payment. Independent consultants regulate this by playing the referee role.
As Iron Sharpens Iron, So one Man Sharpens Another.
vmartin
#100 Posted : Wednesday, March 05, 2014 8:54:17 AM
Rank: Hello


Joined: 2/17/2014
Posts: 7
What will be the passenger fare from Nbi to Msa once the line is operational?

http://www.standardmedia.co.ke/?articleID=2000103526
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