Banks that lent with strong credit vetting have low NPLs but even the best customer can have problems. Some of the banks have lent to contractors who have government contracts. The problem is when GoK delays payment to these contractors, the 'problem' is compounded.
Day 0-90: Barabara Contractor - Buys kokoto from Kokoto Mining. Buys cement from ARM. Buys/leases tractors, rollers & graders from CMC. Buys asphalt from KK. Buys diesel from Total. And starts building the road. The loans have been disbursed by Green Bank but they are not due.
Day 91-120: Barabara Contractor bills GoK. GoK says mta-do? Barabara goes to Green Bank and says tuta-do? Green Bank makes calls to GoK who make token payments enough to pay laborers & interest.
Day 120-180: Barabara Contractor stops the work [lack of cash to pay KK, Total, ARM, Kokoto]. Lease payments to CMC are still due. Green Bank now starts providing for the loans. Starts with Watch. Then escalates to Default with 100% provision over time.
Day 180-360: Green Bank has a huge bad debt. CMC takes back their equipment but Barabara Contractors are still on the hook for payments.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett