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How to tell NSE has bottomed out
Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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Metasploit wrote:murchr wrote:Aguytrying wrote:hisah wrote:MSC is piling up volumes after 3/- handle broke down. Liking this action.
@aguy - in future we will discuss this vol behaviour. we will. and then, we'll be getting those questions of whether to buy mumias at 10.00. I hope not 1.00 bob( assuming headed up). what was the closing price? @Murchr the closing price was 3.00 Accelerate the price to a high of 3.20 to build sufficient demand at 3.00 for dump.(For the third day,the price closes at a low and on a volume spike) Aguy,its a support break down. @hisah @Aguy, i choose to be enjoined in that future discussion. Trust we will be in the money. @Metasploit, your contrarian view is still welcomed
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 985 Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
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mwekez@ji wrote:Metasploit wrote:murchr wrote:Aguytrying wrote:hisah wrote:MSC is piling up volumes after 3/- handle broke down. Liking this action.
@aguy - in future we will discuss this vol behaviour. we will. and then, we'll be getting those questions of whether to buy mumias at 10.00. I hope not 1.00 bob( assuming headed up). what was the closing price? @Murchr the closing price was 3.00 Accelerate the price to a high of 3.20 to build sufficient demand at 3.00 for dump.(For the third day,the price closes at a low and on a volume spike) Aguy,its a support break down. @hisah @Aguy, i choose to be enjoined in that future discussion. Trust we will be in the money. @Metasploit, your contrarian view is still welcomed Agreed and retracting my earlier statement. Solid demand at 3.10 and no supply past 3.20
“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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Turnover rose to Kes.805M from previous session’s Kes.349M, the number of shares traded stood at 28M against 22M posted yesterday. The NSE 20 Share Index closed 27.11 points higher to stand at 4875.82. All share Index (NASI) was up 1.08 points to stand at 140.65. "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Member Joined: 2/16/2013 Posts: 123 Location: MSA
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Metasploit wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:Metasploit wrote:murchr wrote:Aguytrying wrote:hisah wrote:MSC is piling up volumes after 3/- handle broke down. Liking this action.
@aguy - in future we will discuss this vol behaviour. we will. and then, we'll be getting those questions of whether to buy mumias at 10.00. I hope not 1.00 bob( assuming headed up). what was the closing price? @Murchr the closing price was 3.00 Accelerate the price to a high of 3.20 to build sufficient demand at 3.00 for dump.(For the third day,the price closes at a low and on a volume spike) Aguy,its a support break down. @hisah @Aguy, i choose to be enjoined in that future discussion. Trust we will be in the money. @Metasploit, your contrarian view is still welcomed Agreed and retracting my earlier statement. Solid demand at 3.10 and no supply past 3.20 Now I am wishing I bought a bigger stake, chase after the price????. But no supply bad news, this from my observation stops the upthrust. Timely advice is as lovely as golden apples in a silver basket. Proverbs 25:11
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2011 Posts: 4,818 Location: -1.2107, 36.8831
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Receive with simplicity everything that happens to you.” ― Rashi
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/27/2012 Posts: 851 Location: Nairobi
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So they are back? Are we about to experience some bull-fattening or will it be castration turning it to a steer?
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 10/10/2010 Posts: 51 Location: Nairobi
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its time to take profits and exit am waiting for the new cycle the mkt is hugely overbought!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/2/2009 Posts: 2,458 Location: Nairobi
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vastcapital wrote:its time to take profits and exit am waiting for the new cycle the mkt is hugely overbought! When is the Fed going to make more tapering announcements so that we can plan our exits from a point of knowledge?
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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hisah wrote:hisah wrote:murchr wrote:Turnover rose to Kes.902M from the previous session’s Kes.450M, the number of shares traded stood at 31M against 24M posted yesterday.
The NSE 20 Share Index closed 15.08 points higher to stand at 4833.36.
All Share Index (NASI) was up 0.82 points to stand at 138.08. Bounces since last Tues. Let's see how long the bounce lasts with results coming in going forward. The first bounce was quite weak... The bounces are nothing to talk about.
Definitely NSE20 will close below 4700 level this month making it the 2nd down month as 2014 starts on the back foot.
Levels to watch as th slide continues are 4740 as per lower BB (bol bands) then 4500 - 4600 horizontal support and 2010 highs then SMA100 @4380 and SMA200 @4170. By the time SMA200 is tested the investor section will be full of property threads  Quite interesting the market has turned while I was expecting it to close below 4700 this month. Still resilient bulls...
But the bounce is still weak considering as per yesterday's NSE20 close, the Feb gain is 0.96%.
Also 2014 for NSE20 is still flat since the reference point is 4926.
A few weeks ago in the wazua group I had mentioned my bearish sentiments about PAFR. I'm now adding BRIT to that list. Proper blow off in those 2 counters and the ensuing correction will be interesting to watch.
I still remain bearish banks though I can see vol spikes are back at the simba and member counters.
EABL - I don't think the selling is done. Scope for a retest of 220s won't be surprising.
Will Mr Market push KEGN back to 8/- levels and as well stall KPLC  $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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@ HIsah. could the market be warming up for the success of the euro bond? Im really hoping EABL comes back to 220. I want to buy and hold for a long long long time. like Young's strategy. Im also eyeing KENGEN. Clearly a price mismacth with the current market conditions. and no profit warning yet. Dividend will still be there fy06/ 2014. KPLC, I find Kengen better as an investment. but i see the potential there definately. What with the tarrifs raised without a word, they got what they wanted. A kengen employee told me that with the new MD they are in better hands than before. Then. @aguy is doing well nowadays. Mumias out of the red, TPSE @ 50.00 and heading higher. My laggards are waking up. bado KK still in coma The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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hisah wrote:hisah wrote:hisah wrote:murchr wrote:Turnover rose to Kes.902M from the previous session’s Kes.450M, the number of shares traded stood at 31M against 24M posted yesterday.
The NSE 20 Share Index closed 15.08 points higher to stand at 4833.36.
All Share Index (NASI) was up 0.82 points to stand at 138.08. Bounces since last Tues. Let's see how long the bounce lasts with results coming in going forward. The first bounce was quite weak... The bounces are nothing to talk about.
Definitely NSE20 will close below 4700 level this month making it the 2nd down month as 2014 starts on the back foot.
Levels to watch as th slide continues are 4740 as per lower BB (bol bands) then 4500 - 4600 horizontal support and 2010 highs then SMA100 @4380 and SMA200 @4170. By the time SMA200 is tested the investor section will be full of property threads Quite interesting the market has turned while I was expecting it to close below 4700 this month. Still resilient bulls...
But the bounce is still weak considering as per yesterday's NSE20 close, the Feb gain is 0.96%.
Also 2014 for NSE20 is still flat since the reference point is 4926.
A few weeks ago in the wazua group I had mentioned my bearish sentiments about PAFR. I'm now adding BRIT to that list. Proper blow off in those 2 counters and the ensuing correction will be interesting to watch.
I still remain bearish banks though I can see vol spikes are back at the simba and member counters.
EABL - I don't think the selling is done. Scope for a retest of 220s won't be surprising.
Will Mr Market push KEGN back to 8/- levels and as well stall KPLC That would take us back to 2011....i would dive in so big. I was expecting it to nose dive today but no...it gained.  PORT - I see Dangote written allover it "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Aguytrying wrote:@ Hisah. could the market be warming up for the success of the euro bond?
Im really hoping EABL comes back to 220. I want to buy and hold for a long long long time. like Young's strategy.
Im also eyeing KENGEN. Clearly a price mismacth with the current market conditions. and no profit warning yet. Dividend will still be there fy06/ 2014.
KPLC, I find Kengen better as an investment. but i see the potential there definately. What with the tarrifs raised without a word, they got what they wanted. A kengen employee told me that with the new MD they are in better hands than before.
Then. @aguy is doing well nowadays. Mumias out of the red, TPSE @ 50.00 and heading higher. My laggards are waking up. bado KK still in coma NSE20 is still flat in 2014 as well as the FTSE indices with all less than 1% gains in 2014. Meaning the heavy weights are huffing and puffing, but not going making any head way. Only the NASI has some gain of 3.22% which means the small caps have kept the rally momentum. But how far will they go without the big caps...
Therefore the blue chips are in a wait and see mode for the eurobond trump card.$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Another month gone. Both bears and bulls still squaring at each other as the sideways action sustains. FTSE KE indices are neutral, but with a slight bearish bias esp the monthly chart. Bulls (esp big caps) have struggled since 2014 started... EABL and Uchumi interim books have already indicated that consumers are struggling with purchasing power even with a steady inflation rate cycle! How can inflation be steady yet EABL and Uchumi sales are getting trimmed? Me thinks inflation will soon spike to reflect the reality... Eroded purchasing power is a curve ball for lending/insurance biz (financials) as well as consumerism (local tourism, telcos, retail, entertainment). I still see 2011 reflected in 2014 with the only diff being the eurobond trump card - http://www.wazua.co.ke/f...spx?g=posts&t=11082
5000 handle is still a resistance level to be respected...  $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Guess what happened back in 2011 when banks were posting very solid profits after that ugly GFC period? BBK were first to release the results (Feb 22 2010) then simba then memba... Coincidence   Then scope this on EABL back in 2011 H1 release - Group finance director, Peter Ndegwa, said the company recorded a 12 per cent growth in sales, driven by an increase in demand for spirits supported by excise tax reduction. EABL in 2014 H1 - The brewer on Friday said its net income stood at Sh3.95 billion in the period compared to Sh3.76 billion a year earlier. This came as sales rose 3.9 per cent to Sh31.8 billion, with the firm relying on cost-cutting measures to grow earnings.The cycle... next online USDKES volatility as the current account widens with a snail econ dragged by struggling consumers. Thus the eurobond trump card effect if it fails to launch. Dislike it when BBK announces results first... Now you know... $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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hisah wrote:Another month gone. Both bears and bulls still squaring at each other as the sideways action sustains. FTSE KE indices are neutral, but with a slight bearish bias esp the monthly chart. Bulls (esp big caps) have struggled since 2014 started... EABL and Uchumi interim books have already indicated that consumers are struggling with purchasing power even with a steady inflation rate cycle! How can inflation be steady yet EABL and Uchumi sales are getting trimmed? Me thinks inflation will soon spike to reflect the reality... Eroded purchasing power is a curve ball for lending/insurance biz (financials) as well as consumerism (local tourism, telcos, retail, entertainment). I still see 2011 reflected in 2014 with the only diff being the eurobond trump card - http://www.wazua.co.ke/f...spx?g=posts&t=11082
5000 handle is still a resistance level to be respected... So true. And similar to then and now, people were very bullish back then. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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No one is talking about BAT? "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Old Mutual Says Focused on Ghana, Nigeria, Kenya - http://goo.gl/XN06hI
Julian Roberts, chief executive officer of Old Mutual Plc, Africa's largest insurer, discusses plans for an initial public offering of its U.S. asset-management business this year and regions for growth. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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NSE wrote:The Bourse opened the week with a total of 21M shares valued at Kes.470M, down from Kes.1BN on a volume of 40M shares posted last Friday.
The NSE 20 Share Index closed 1.60 points higher to stand at 4935.01.
All Share Index (NASI) shed 0.20 points to stand at 140.85. "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Until FTSE KE-15 index reclaims the 180 handle and sustains above this level, I don't see the bulls keeping up for long. I don't care what the mid caps do, without the big caps bulls online, the market will keep leaking downwards... $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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