mibbz wrote:But lets crunch the numbers using available data,both from wazua page and the BD story;
Pan Africa has 96,000,000 issued shares as per data on the wazua stock profiler page
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Allow me to copy paste the BD article here with acknowledgment of the author, George Ngigi
'Regulatory filings to the Capital Markets Authority shows Sanlam bought 108,600 shares in the eight months to August, raising its total shareholding to 53.6 million shares.
This is in line with the company’s disclosure of intention to increase its stake in the insurer to 60 per cent from the 50 per cent held then. As at end of August its stake was 55.81 per cent, from 55.69 per cent in December.'
In August 2013 Sanlam had accumulated 53.6 Million shares equivalent to approximately 55.83%. This is 4.17% or approximately 4 Million shares below their target of 60% acquisition.
I can confidently state since August this year not more than a million Pan Africa shares have traded;i check the stock every single day and the most action it has seen this year was almost 450k shares moving last 2 weeks within which a notable
block of approximately 300k shares was available at a price of 70 bob earlier on in the price rally.In fact appetite at 70 was so high thus the reason it edged to 73 where 4k shares existed momentarily then went to 75-76 range till yesterday.
Lets be real,if you were the investment manager to the anonymous buyer(Sanlam) would you wait for price to reach 100 bob then buy or start buying now?!
What might have spooked huge anonymous buyer(Sanlam) into buying was the report on insurance sector valuation released last week;Pan Africa had the biggest upside in valuation thus anticipated capital gains and possibly existing shareholders firmly clutching onto their stock.
Lastly, remember the Insurance act is to be amended to allow foreign ownership of insurance firms to exceed 60%,that shall be the last nail on the coffin of doubt as to the future of valuations in this sector as it shall open it up to M n A....
Factor the above into the price and you shall see why the price is edging higher;it can only stop if you sell 3 Million shares to Sanlam or unless someone convinces them to change strategy on an investment that has made them 2 Billion this year.
The above is my theory on the whole Pan Africa issue;Thanks
1.Sanlam buyThat was in November 2013;a post on this thread.Sanlam was left with a deficit of slightly more than 3 Million shares to buy in the open market so that they achieve their 60% target. This stock started pushing huge volumes mid January so i can assure you they are still trying to buy and have not yet achieved full quota.
2.Insurance act
This act aims to allow insurance companies to be owned/controlled by foreign companies.The current cap on foreign shareholders is 66% and its set to be removed. Treasury had anticipated the bill would be law by Sept 2013 but hiccups in the system saw the other insurance compensation act go through but this one is still pending.While all Kenyan insurane companies stand to benefit;Sanlam might just revise their plan and increase their holdings from 60 to lets say 75%
3.Runda plotsSet to be sold in H2,these shall specifically bring a crazy amount of income;with half acres going for roughly ksh 20Mil;i believe PanAfrica shall make a kill from this and it shall be reflected in the books.
Lastly,Kenya Re might rise but the only insurer with a triple digit growth in Profitability for 2013 FY is Pan Africa. One of the things the wise mzee @young told us a few days ago;a sure way of knowing gems in the NSE is profit growth,invest in companies with growth in profits and you shall not go wrong.