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Realities of Forex Investment
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hisah
#2421 Posted : Wednesday, January 29, 2014 5:28:54 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
The morgue is selling its commodities unit for $2 billion - http://www.bloomberg.com...modities-unit-sale.html

I can see blackstone is one of the bidders...

**Indeed volatility will soon show up**
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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mchambuzi
#2422 Posted : Wednesday, January 29, 2014 12:32:35 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 11/17/2013
Posts: 80
Location: Juja
Buying USDTRY in this dip. Island reversal hopefully can materialize.
On a long enough timeline, the life expectancy of everyone drops to zero.
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mnunuzi
#2423 Posted : Wednesday, January 29, 2014 12:55:13 PM
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Joined: 11/15/2013
Posts: 34
Buy usdjpy here, add 102 stop on dip below 101.50
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#2424 Posted : Wednesday, January 29, 2014 12:56:34 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,221
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
Very volatile market ahead of the FED MPS and press conference.Staying out might save you some pipssmile
@SufficientlyP
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hisah
#2425 Posted : Wednesday, January 29, 2014 5:26:30 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
ZAR has been fun to trade today with SARB coming out with a spanky rate hike which led to a shakeout (a buy opportunity). This thing will test 12.00 as the all time high in USDZAR has been taken out.

The other CB facing the same fight after hiking rates is the Turkish CB. Rate hike today and the lira still gets hammered.

It's the season for EM CBs to hike rates to stem the storms coming, but nobody is larger than the market. Very interesting fights coming up as volatility returns...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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mnunuzi
#2426 Posted : Thursday, January 30, 2014 2:13:11 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 11/15/2013
Posts: 34
mnunuzi wrote:
Sold eurusd at 1.3678. took fresh short in audusd at .8795. Considering going long usdchf and short on xauusd, hunting around for an entry

Exited both trades.Oil daily chart looks like further upside may materialize.
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mnunuzi
#2427 Posted : Thursday, January 30, 2014 2:18:50 PM
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Joined: 11/15/2013
Posts: 34
I expect yen crosses to stage reversals especially if usdyen trades back above 102.60.
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hisah
#2428 Posted : Thursday, January 30, 2014 4:21:35 PM
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Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
The 8hr chart of the beast (gebby) shows a H&S pattern. If it plays out, the bears will have a serious feast. Already the aussie and kiwi have been nailed by the yen.

If Nikkei breaks below 14800, watch out for that yen spike.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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mnunuzi
#2429 Posted : Thursday, January 30, 2014 8:17:23 PM
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Joined: 11/15/2013
Posts: 34
mnunuzi wrote:
Buy usdjpy here, add 102 stop on dip below 101.50


There is a truckload of offers ahead of 103, If you didnt get into that dip, I think it will provide a better opportunity, I am partially offloading part of my longs from 102
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hisah
#2430 Posted : Friday, January 31, 2014 8:29:42 AM
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Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Nikkei falls 400pts from yesters highs and tests below 14800. Currently 10pts above this level and almost 2% down in today's session. If it closes below that point, Yen bears be careful. ZARJPY should the yen strengthen, this cross has acres to falls. AUDJPY & NZDJPY as well as the beast (GBPJPY) are on my sell list. Also EM ccys vs yen should be short candidates.

Waiting for gold to revisit 1200 to confirm if the floor is set.

**A lot of morgue (jpm) news wires lately. They've selling their assets like a broke biz**
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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mnunuzi
#2431 Posted : Friday, January 31, 2014 11:15:07 AM
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Joined: 11/15/2013
Posts: 34
I think the show has just began in emerging market stocks. This fed tapering will push them down like dominos.
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mnunuzi
#2432 Posted : Friday, January 31, 2014 1:09:57 PM
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Joined: 11/15/2013
Posts: 34
I think the dollar should do well today due to end flows.
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mnunuzi
#2433 Posted : Friday, January 31, 2014 2:26:49 PM
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Joined: 11/15/2013
Posts: 34
I hate end month, I am going to cut my exposure in the market and break even.
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hisah
#2434 Posted : Friday, January 31, 2014 3:01:10 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
mnunuzi wrote:
I hate end month, I am going to cut my exposure in the market and break even.

It gets squeaky esp on those days when last day of the month is on a Friday...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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mnandii
#2435 Posted : Friday, January 31, 2014 11:42:08 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
hisah wrote:


**A lot of morgue (jpm) news wires lately. They've selling their assets like a broke biz**


May be the right thing to do considering the precarious position the market is at. In a depression cash is king.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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hisah
#2436 Posted : Monday, February 03, 2014 7:12:24 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
hisah wrote:
The 8hr chart of the beast (gebby) shows a H&S pattern. If it plays out, the bears will have a serious feast. Already the aussie and kiwi have been nailed by the yen.

If Nikkei breaks below 14800, watch out for that yen spike.

The Nikkei nosedive continues almost 10% underwater in 2014 and breaks below 14800. Yen bears caution.

For some time now Nikkei has been the global risk barometer. Going by its barometer readings, the sell side is about to give the bulls a proper run in...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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hisah
#2437 Posted : Tuesday, February 04, 2014 5:29:20 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Hope guys took the yen longs. Nikkei continues to take it in the chin as expected.
Short GBPJPY @168.14 yesterday. Looking for 162 and lower! If USDJPY breaks below 100 then I hold longer.

S&P now below 1750. The cracking noise is getting louder as support levels cave in across board.

Will RBS yet again trigger the match like back in 2008? I foresee a lot of cyrus'd deposits across euroland when the dust settled.

Last yr Cyprus proved the mattress is the new secure safe deposit box...

Bonds are still flashing. The storm is getting started.

**markets hate confessions, don't get suckered as volatility strikes hard**
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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hisah
#2438 Posted : Tuesday, February 04, 2014 6:25:42 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Quote:
The Nikkei fell decisively below its 200-day moving average, around 14,425, for the first time since November 2012 when the market started rallying on expectations of radical monetary easing.


Yen bears mercilessly squeezed...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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hisah
#2439 Posted : Wednesday, February 05, 2014 3:23:58 PM
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Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
USDJPY gives up 101.75 support. What gives... Waiting to see the verbal war by BoJ as they try to spook yen bulls. When Nikkei gave up 14800, bears had already taken the wheel...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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hisah
#2440 Posted : Thursday, February 06, 2014 5:58:20 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Back in 1981 - http://tinyurl.com/ojm4xbs

And in 2013 - http://www.bloomberg.com...cks-as-locals-sell.html

This nikkei is projecting how 2014 train wreck will play out...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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