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What is ailing the market?
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#51 Posted : Wednesday, February 05, 2014 9:24:30 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 3/19/2013
Posts: 2,552
mnandii wrote:
streetwise wrote:
Excellent..in other words value only exists so long as people perceive it to exist.

Yes. smile

ApplauseApplause Applause Applause Applause

Beyond the necessities i.e. food,clothing,shelter and health(at their most basic levels - survival),it's all a perception gamesmile
The Merchant
#52 Posted : Thursday, February 06, 2014 11:51:40 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 5/24/2010
Posts: 846
Location: KENYA
mkeiy wrote:
mnandii wrote:
What does a bank do with your hard earned cash? When Ondiek deposits money, the bank takes Ondieks's and other depositors money and loans it to Samuel.

The bank records this loan to Samuel as an asset in its books. The bank then turns around selling bonds to the likes of NSSF on the strength of the expected interest payments it expects from Samuel.

But what if the stock market crashes? Wasn't the loan to Samuel made on collateral basis? You see, when markets fall, corporate profits fall, incomes fall and Samuel is suddenly in a position at which he cannot repay the full loan plus interest. So the banks loan asset collapses. But, alas, the bank can still sell the collateral from Samuel.

The only problem with this is that as incomes fall people rush to sell whatever property they have. As more property is brought to the market their prices fall. So even the bank's collateral value shrinks.

People start to withdraw their deposits from the banks to cover for the shortfall in incomes. At some point ppl will perceive that the bank may default on their money. So more pple try to withdraw as much as possible. Then the bank cannot manage and collapses.

The reason is that, ordinarily, banks keep only enough reserves to cover for the everyday withdrawals. The rest is loaned because that is where money (in the bank's eyes) is to be made.

If you deposit a million bob in a bank and the bank defaults by only 1%, you lose 10,000 bob.

Something else to ponder, when you deposit money in the bank, the bank writes some figures against your name and that is all. You only have value as long as people percieve that the notes have value. It is fiat. Hence the growing popularity of digital money. The time has come when the stranglehold held by central banks must be resolved.

History is a good lesson. The banks that collapsed in the '90s, how much were the depositors paid back? Sad

Anyway, the issue of deflation is painful as well as a difficult subject. Whenever a person predicts deflation they go right against what ppl perceive to have value. You go right against what ppl hold dear to them. So it is to be expected whenever ppl overreact to such issues. But a prudent mind would require at least some caution. At the very least you can do yourself a favour by researching on the subject.




Boss, what's your point?

No point I can tell you that.
mnandii
#53 Posted : Tuesday, February 11, 2014 12:12:41 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
Market correction should be nearing an end. smile

On Bitcoin:
Bitpesa
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
arkard
#54 Posted : Tuesday, February 11, 2014 4:28:30 PM
Rank: New-farer

Joined: 9/24/2012
Posts: 63
The Merchant wrote:
mkeiy wrote:
mnandii wrote:
What does a bank do with your hard earned cash? When Ondiek deposits money, the bank takes Ondieks's and other depositors money and loans it to Samuel.

The bank records this loan to Samuel as an asset in its books. The bank then turns around selling bonds to the likes of NSSF on the strength of the expected interest payments it expects from Samuel.

But what if the stock market crashes? Wasn't the loan to Samuel made on collateral basis? You see, when markets fall, corporate profits fall, incomes fall and Samuel is suddenly in a position at which he cannot repay the full loan plus interest. So the banks loan asset collapses. But, alas, the bank can still sell the collateral from Samuel.

The only problem with this is that as incomes fall people rush to sell whatever property they have. As more property is brought to the market their prices fall. So even the bank's collateral value shrinks.

People start to withdraw their deposits from the banks to cover for the shortfall in incomes. At some point ppl will perceive that the bank may default on their money. So more pple try to withdraw as much as possible. Then the bank cannot manage and collapses.

The reason is that, ordinarily, banks keep only enough reserves to cover for the everyday withdrawals. The rest is loaned because that is where money (in the bank's eyes) is to be made.

If you deposit a million bob in a bank and the bank defaults by only 1%, you lose 10,000 bob.

Something else to ponder, when you deposit money in the bank, the bank writes some figures against your name and that is all. You only have value as long as people percieve that the notes have value. It is fiat. Hence the growing popularity of digital money. The time has come when the stranglehold held by central banks must be resolved.

History is a good lesson. The banks that collapsed in the '90s, how much were the depositors paid back? Sad

Anyway, the issue of deflation is painful as well as a difficult subject. Whenever a person predicts deflation they go right against what ppl perceive to have value. You go right against what ppl hold dear to them. So it is to be expected whenever ppl overreact to such issues. But a prudent mind would require at least some caution. At the very least you can do yourself a favour by researching on the subject.




Boss, what's your point?

No point I can tell you that.

I thought so tooSad Sad Sad
Above all, guard your heart, for it is the wellspring of life.
mnandii
#55 Posted : Tuesday, February 18, 2014 10:19:46 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
Manufacturers lead in NSE Decline
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#56 Posted : Friday, February 28, 2014 6:29:33 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
It appears a top is now in place for EURUSD. Third wave down should resume presently.
Remember most markets are now following each other so even the NSE should have a top at today's (this Friday's) levels.

Its interesting that the NSE is celebrating 60 years since its birth. There was a pullout in the newspapers today outlining its achievements all these years. Good news! But such news always come at market tops. I wonder how the coming monday 3rd March will present itself.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#57 Posted : Friday, March 14, 2014 5:25:43 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
Forecasting a top was a little ellusive but it appears to be in place now. The next ride down should be persistent.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#58 Posted : Tuesday, March 18, 2014 9:01:38 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
I know this topic is not popular. But allow me to keep posting just as a reminder of what history says. And one important thing about human nature is that man does not learn from history.

1929 The Great Crash. - a video about the stock market crash
link
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#59 Posted : Tuesday, March 18, 2014 9:04:15 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
How The Economic Machine Works by Ray Dalio
link
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#60 Posted : Tuesday, March 18, 2014 9:06:03 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
On debt and its after effects try to watch the documentary: MAXED OUT.
Good day guys.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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