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What is ailing the market?
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,124 Location: Nairobi
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Horton wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Horton wrote:mnandii wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:I hope to collect some shares if the prices continue dropping We are in a depression which is worse than 1929. The best advice you can get is to get out of financial assets altogether. In fact, I'll not be surprised if some Kenyan banks fail along with the global ones.  Lol stocks fall for a week and guys are talking "worst depression ever?!?!" Hahaha  but I hope the prices keep falling. I had stopped buying and would like to resume. Yeah....loan a brother some cash. Too broke I managed to sell some [not all] shares when the prices went crazy. And there are 43 banks Pick one that will lend against shares! Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Member Joined: 4/26/2011 Posts: 759
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the deal wrote:murchr wrote:the deal wrote:US Q3 2013 GDP +4.1% Kenya Q3 2013 GDP +4.4% Unemployment rate???? fill the blanks__________  Where do you think foreigners would put their money if you factor in all the risks of investing in a frontier market like Kenya? The answer is simple....US...thus the money is going and will go back home folks. - Real unemployment in the US went up to 15% - The dow lost over 100points in January - S & P closed at a loss - The fever is everywhere Asia US EU BRIC etc - Mortgage rates drop to a two month low - no buyers. Truth be told your $100 is bound to double faster anywhere rather than the US 1. The S&P 500 was up 30% in 2013 vs the NSE20 Share Index's return of 19%. So if an investor did put his money in a fund which tracks the S&P 500 would have outperfomed a guy in a fund which tracks the NSE20 share Index...so tell me how did this guy lose money by investing in the US? 2. Investors have been selling bonds and EM & frontiers as the US economy gains traction...where will the money go? US Stocks...I would not be suprised if the S&P 500 outperforms the NSE20 Share Index again in 2014. Link http://online.wsj.com/ne...54404579311012920076346
3. The US economy is still firing on despite the taper....consumer spending is increasing at its fastest pace in 3 years Link http://mobile.bloomberg....spending-picked-up.html
4. Hehe you complaining of an unemployment rate of 15%...I would take that any day...and where is your source for the figure? Link please?..when the last time did Kenya do a labour census or survey? Theyre even scared to do that...it would be an embarassiment. NB: Always share a link or referance to support your arguments. Most people in wazua will not comment on this because they want to believe what they want to believe!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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Rollout wrote:the deal wrote:murchr wrote:the deal wrote:US Q3 2013 GDP +4.1% Kenya Q3 2013 GDP +4.4% Unemployment rate???? fill the blanks__________ Where do you think foreigners would put their money if you factor in all the risks of investing in a frontier market like Kenya? The answer is simple....US...thus the money is going and will go back home folks. - Real unemployment in the US went up to 15% - The dow lost over 100points in January - S & P closed at a loss - The fever is everywhere Asia US EU BRIC etc - Mortgage rates drop to a two month low - no buyers. Truth be told your $100 is bound to double faster anywhere rather than the US 1. The S&P 500 was up 30% in 2013 vs the NSE20 Share Index's return of 19%. So if an investor did put his money in a fund which tracks the S&P 500 would have outperfomed a guy in a fund which tracks the NSE20 share Index...so tell me how did this guy lose money by investing in the US? 2. Investors have been selling bonds and EM & frontiers as the US economy gains traction...where will the money go? US Stocks...I would not be suprised if the S&P 500 outperforms the NSE20 Share Index again in 2014. Link http://online.wsj.com/ne...54404579311012920076346
3. The US economy is still firing on despite the taper....consumer spending is increasing at its fastest pace in 3 years Link http://mobile.bloomberg....spending-picked-up.html
4. Hehe you complaining of an unemployment rate of 15%...I would take that any day...and where is your source for the figure? Link please?..when the last time did Kenya do a labour census or survey? Theyre even scared to do that...it would be an embarassiment. NB: Always share a link or referance to support your arguments. Most people in wazua will not comment on this because they want to believe what they want to believe! How was the market today Drunkard? "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/20/2007 Posts: 2,037 Location: Lagos, Nigeria
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young wrote: WHY ARE YOU SUPRISED ABOUT MARKET CORRECTION ?
Do you expect the stock prices to rise every day?
There is bound to be profit taking, and market correction which is a buy opportunity to accumulate your favorite stocks especially the blue chips.
Safaricom is bound to go close to 10 bob but when it rebounds it will approach a new high of 13 - 14 bob.
If you are an experienced investor you will not be suprised about market correction, which is purely temporary.
You will see return of the bulls to new highs when the earning season commences in full swing from mid feb.
Dont panic my friend it is a normal trend. PERIOD.
- I wish big guys like NMG get below 300 to acculate more, EABL is sweet at sub 250,and Bamburi will be honey at sub 200, not to talk of HFCK at late 20s (if possible) and Panafric at sub 90. But thereafter the bulls will take over to new highs. This is typical of a standard market.
I was able to pick up the following during the bear run Safcom at 11.00 Bamburi at 201 EABL at 260 The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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young wrote:young wrote: WHY ARE YOU SUPRISED ABOUT MARKET CORRECTION ?
Do you expect the stock prices to rise every day?
There is bound to be profit taking, and market correction which is a buy opportunity to accumulate your favorite stocks especially the blue chips.
Safaricom is bound to go close to 10 bob but when it rebounds it will approach a new high of 13 - 14 bob.
If you are an experienced investor you will not be suprised about market correction, which is purely temporary.
You will see return of the bulls to new highs when the earning season commences in full swing from mid feb.
Dont panic my friend it is a normal trend. PERIOD.
- I wish big guys like NMG get below 300 to acculate more, EABL is sweet at sub 250,and Bamburi will be honey at sub 200, not to talk of HFCK at late 20s (if possible) and Panafric at sub 90. But thereafter the bulls will take over to new highs. This is typical of a standard market.
I was able to pick up the following during the bear run Safcom at 11.00 Bamburi at 201 EABL at 260 @young. I honestly believe you are buying into a bull trap. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/7/2012 Posts: 11,908
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mnandii wrote:young wrote:young wrote: WHY ARE YOU SUPRISED ABOUT MARKET CORRECTION ?
Do you expect the stock prices to rise every day?
There is bound to be profit taking, and market correction which is a buy opportunity to accumulate your favorite stocks especially the blue chips.
Safaricom is bound to go close to 10 bob but when it rebounds it will approach a new high of 13 - 14 bob.
If you are an experienced investor you will not be suprised about market correction, which is purely temporary.
You will see return of the bulls to new highs when the earning season commences in full swing from mid feb.
Dont panic my friend it is a normal trend. PERIOD.
- I wish big guys like NMG get below 300 to acculate more, EABL is sweet at sub 250,and Bamburi will be honey at sub 200, not to talk of HFCK at late 20s (if possible) and Panafric at sub 90. But thereafter the bulls will take over to new highs. This is typical of a standard market.
I was able to pick up the following during the bear run Safcom at 11.00 Bamburi at 201 EABL at 260 @young. I honestly believe you are buying into a bull trap. Mzee young is in this for the long term so he will dont be hurt as much! In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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What does a bank do with your hard earned cash? When Ondiek deposits money, the bank takes Ondieks's and other depositors money and loans it to Samuel. The bank records this loan to Samuel as an asset in its books. The bank then turns around selling bonds to the likes of NSSF on the strength of the expected interest payments it expects from Samuel. But what if the stock market crashes? Wasn't the loan to Samuel made on collateral basis? You see, when markets fall, corporate profits fall, incomes fall and Samuel is suddenly in a position at which he cannot repay the full loan plus interest. So the banks loan asset collapses. But, alas, the bank can still sell the collateral from Samuel. The only problem with this is that as incomes fall people rush to sell whatever property they have. As more property is brought to the market their prices fall. So even the bank's collateral value shrinks. People start to withdraw their deposits from the banks to cover for the shortfall in incomes. At some point ppl will perceive that the bank may default on their money. So more pple try to withdraw as much as possible. Then the bank cannot manage and collapses. The reason is that, ordinarily, banks keep only enough reserves to cover for the everyday withdrawals. The rest is loaned because that is where money (in the bank's eyes) is to be made. If you deposit a million bob in a bank and the bank defaults by only 1%, you lose 10,000 bob. Something else to ponder, when you deposit money in the bank, the bank writes some figures against your name and that is all. You only have value as long as people percieve that the notes have value. It is fiat. Hence the growing popularity of digital money. The time has come when the stranglehold held by central banks must be resolved. History is a good lesson. The banks that collapsed in the '90s, how much were the depositors paid back?  Anyway, the issue of deflation is painful as well as a difficult subject. Whenever a person predicts deflation they go right against what ppl perceive to have value. You go right against what ppl hold dear to them. So it is to be expected whenever ppl overreact to such issues. But a prudent mind would require at least some caution. At the very least you can do yourself a favour by researching on the subject. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 6/23/2011 Posts: 1,740 Location: Nairobi
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Excellent..in other words value only exists so long as people perceive it to exist.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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streetwise wrote:Excellent..in other words value only exists so long as people perceive it to exist. Yes. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/27/2012 Posts: 851 Location: Nairobi
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mnandii wrote:What does a bank do with your hard earned cash? When Ondiek deposits money, the bank takes Ondieks's and other depositors money and loans it to Samuel. The bank records this loan to Samuel as an asset in its books. The bank then turns around selling bonds to the likes of NSSF on the strength of the expected interest payments it expects from Samuel. But what if the stock market crashes? Wasn't the loan to Samuel made on collateral basis? You see, when markets fall, corporate profits fall, incomes fall and Samuel is suddenly in a position at which he cannot repay the full loan plus interest. So the banks loan asset collapses. But, alas, the bank can still sell the collateral from Samuel. The only problem with this is that as incomes fall people rush to sell whatever property they have. As more property is brought to the market their prices fall. So even the bank's collateral value shrinks. People start to withdraw their deposits from the banks to cover for the shortfall in incomes. At some point ppl will perceive that the bank may default on their money. So more pple try to withdraw as much as possible. Then the bank cannot manage and collapses. The reason is that, ordinarily, banks keep only enough reserves to cover for the everyday withdrawals. The rest is loaned because that is where money (in the bank's eyes) is to be made. If you deposit a million bob in a bank and the bank defaults by only 1%, you lose 10,000 bob. Something else to ponder, when you deposit money in the bank, the bank writes some figures against your name and that is all. You only have value as long as people percieve that the notes have value. It is fiat. Hence the growing popularity of digital money. The time has come when the stranglehold held by central banks must be resolved. History is a good lesson. The banks that collapsed in the '90s, how much were the depositors paid back? Anyway, the issue of deflation is painful as well as a difficult subject. Whenever a person predicts deflation they go right against what ppl perceive to have value. You go right against what ppl hold dear to them. So it is to be expected whenever ppl overreact to such issues. But a prudent mind would require at least some caution. At the very least you can do yourself a favour by researching on the subject. Boss, what's your point?
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Rank: Elder Joined: 3/19/2013 Posts: 2,552
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 5/24/2010 Posts: 846 Location: KENYA
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mkeiy wrote:mnandii wrote:What does a bank do with your hard earned cash? When Ondiek deposits money, the bank takes Ondieks's and other depositors money and loans it to Samuel. The bank records this loan to Samuel as an asset in its books. The bank then turns around selling bonds to the likes of NSSF on the strength of the expected interest payments it expects from Samuel. But what if the stock market crashes? Wasn't the loan to Samuel made on collateral basis? You see, when markets fall, corporate profits fall, incomes fall and Samuel is suddenly in a position at which he cannot repay the full loan plus interest. So the banks loan asset collapses. But, alas, the bank can still sell the collateral from Samuel. The only problem with this is that as incomes fall people rush to sell whatever property they have. As more property is brought to the market their prices fall. So even the bank's collateral value shrinks. People start to withdraw their deposits from the banks to cover for the shortfall in incomes. At some point ppl will perceive that the bank may default on their money. So more pple try to withdraw as much as possible. Then the bank cannot manage and collapses. The reason is that, ordinarily, banks keep only enough reserves to cover for the everyday withdrawals. The rest is loaned because that is where money (in the bank's eyes) is to be made. If you deposit a million bob in a bank and the bank defaults by only 1%, you lose 10,000 bob. Something else to ponder, when you deposit money in the bank, the bank writes some figures against your name and that is all. You only have value as long as people percieve that the notes have value. It is fiat. Hence the growing popularity of digital money. The time has come when the stranglehold held by central banks must be resolved. History is a good lesson. The banks that collapsed in the '90s, how much were the depositors paid back? Anyway, the issue of deflation is painful as well as a difficult subject. Whenever a person predicts deflation they go right against what ppl perceive to have value. You go right against what ppl hold dear to them. So it is to be expected whenever ppl overreact to such issues. But a prudent mind would require at least some caution. At the very least you can do yourself a favour by researching on the subject. Boss, what's your point? No point I can tell you that.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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Market correction should be nearing an end. On Bitcoin: BitpesaConventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 9/24/2012 Posts: 63
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The Merchant wrote:mkeiy wrote:mnandii wrote:What does a bank do with your hard earned cash? When Ondiek deposits money, the bank takes Ondieks's and other depositors money and loans it to Samuel. The bank records this loan to Samuel as an asset in its books. The bank then turns around selling bonds to the likes of NSSF on the strength of the expected interest payments it expects from Samuel. But what if the stock market crashes? Wasn't the loan to Samuel made on collateral basis? You see, when markets fall, corporate profits fall, incomes fall and Samuel is suddenly in a position at which he cannot repay the full loan plus interest. So the banks loan asset collapses. But, alas, the bank can still sell the collateral from Samuel. The only problem with this is that as incomes fall people rush to sell whatever property they have. As more property is brought to the market their prices fall. So even the bank's collateral value shrinks. People start to withdraw their deposits from the banks to cover for the shortfall in incomes. At some point ppl will perceive that the bank may default on their money. So more pple try to withdraw as much as possible. Then the bank cannot manage and collapses. The reason is that, ordinarily, banks keep only enough reserves to cover for the everyday withdrawals. The rest is loaned because that is where money (in the bank's eyes) is to be made. If you deposit a million bob in a bank and the bank defaults by only 1%, you lose 10,000 bob. Something else to ponder, when you deposit money in the bank, the bank writes some figures against your name and that is all. You only have value as long as people percieve that the notes have value. It is fiat. Hence the growing popularity of digital money. The time has come when the stranglehold held by central banks must be resolved. History is a good lesson. The banks that collapsed in the '90s, how much were the depositors paid back? Anyway, the issue of deflation is painful as well as a difficult subject. Whenever a person predicts deflation they go right against what ppl perceive to have value. You go right against what ppl hold dear to them. So it is to be expected whenever ppl overreact to such issues. But a prudent mind would require at least some caution. At the very least you can do yourself a favour by researching on the subject. Boss, what's your point? No point I can tell you that. I thought so too Above all, guard your heart, for it is the wellspring of life.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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Manufacturers lead in NSE DeclineConventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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It appears a top is now in place for EURUSD. Third wave down should resume presently. Remember most markets are now following each other so even the NSE should have a top at today's (this Friday's) levels. Its interesting that the NSE is celebrating 60 years since its birth. There was a pullout in the newspapers today outlining its achievements all these years. Good news! But such news always come at market tops. I wonder how the coming monday 3rd March will present itself. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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Forecasting a top was a little ellusive but it appears to be in place now. The next ride down should be persistent. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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I know this topic is not popular. But allow me to keep posting just as a reminder of what history says. And one important thing about human nature is that man does not learn from history. 1929 The Great Crash. - a video about the stock market crash linkConventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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How The Economic Machine Works by Ray Dalio linkConventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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On debt and its after effects try to watch the documentary: MAXED OUT. Good day guys. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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